Texas grid operators issued a winter weather watch ahead of an expected cold front this weekend, urging residents to conserve power during periods of peak demand as they brace for freezing temperatures that could plummet into the single digits in many parts of the state.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which manages the grid for roughly 90% of the state, issued the winter warning for Jan. 15-17, when it expects “extreme cold weather” and “higher electrical demand and the potential for lower reserves” across Texas.
Demand is expected to shatter records by roughly 40 MW, according to ERCOT’s modeling, sparking fears of blackouts.
ERCOT said it expects to be adequately supplied for the weekend’s cold conditions, though it said it could issue a voluntary conservation notice depending on the level of demand.
“ERCOT continues to monitor conditions closely and will deploy all available tools to manage the grid, continuing a reliability-first approach to operations,” officials said in a statement.
The voluntary conservation step is the first in a three-tier warning system adopted by ERCOT in the wake of Winter Storm Uri and Winter Storm Elliott, and it is intended to protect against rolling blackouts.
It is followed by a slightly more urgent “conservation appeal” to residents and government agencies to reduce consumption and finally by an “energy emergency alert,” ERCOT’s highest-tier warning that could result in forced power outages for some residents.
The new warning system is just one step the state has taken to protect residents against extreme cold events and blackouts after 2021 Winter Storm Uri, which caused 4.5 million Texans to lose power, some for as long as four days, and resulted in 246 deaths.
During Uri, ERCOT was forced to order 20,000 MW of rolling blackouts to prevent grid collapse in what was the largest manually controlled load-shedding event in U.S. history.
ERCOT’s new conservation “tiers” are just one improvement regulators have made to help avert future widespread power outrages.
After Uri, Texas grid officials said they inspected more than 1,770 natural gas generation and transmission facilities in the state to ensure they are properly equipped to come online in freezing temperatures.
And in September, voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot initiative known as Proposition 7, a $10 billion energy-focused initiative that seeks to bolster the state’s aging power grid and protect against blackouts — primarily through investing in new gas-fired generation. It also funnels a portion of the funds toward the creation of “microgrids” to help keep critical facilities online.
However, it will take years before the impact of Proposition 7 will be tangible, and there are doubts over the level of new investments the funds will attract.
In the meantime, U.S. utility regulators warned that Texas has not gone far enough to “weatherize” its grid and protect against the key problems exposed by Uri, mainly its gas generation and transmission.
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The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, said in its 2023-2024 winter reliability assessment that Texas remains at risk of “generator-forced outages” in extreme cold events.
“The risk of a significant number of generator-forced outages in extreme and prolonged cold temperatures continues to threaten reliability where generators and fuel supply infrastructure are not designed or retrofitted for such conditions,” the report said.
