The U.S. effort to block an international carbon tax on the shipping industry is looking adrift, as the United Nations International Maritime Organization is poised to approve a plan for reducing emissions this week.
The plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the global shipping industry, known as the net-zero framework, has faced strong opposition from the Trump administration, which has argued that it would place unfair burdens on the United States.
Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy ramped up pressure on other member states of the IMO to vote against the measure, threatening visa restrictions, port controls, and additional tariffs on those who favor it.
However, those efforts appear all for naught, as few countries have indicated interest in changing their vote.
The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents more than 80% of the global merchant fleet, told the Financial Times that it was confident the framework would be adopted.
The London-based IMO also appeared confident in the measure passing, confirming to the Washington Examiner that a drafting group has been established to prepare the final text of the revised MARPOL Annex VI 2025, regulations within the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, that will include the framework.
When contacted for additional comment, the Energy Department pointed the Washington Examiner to previous statements released by the administration criticizing the framework. The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
The proposed carbon tax
The IMO, a specialized agency within the U.N. that oversees the shipping industry, is set to vote by Friday to adopt the net-zero framework formally. It must receive a two-thirds majority vote in favor to pass as an amendment to the maritime treaty.
Once approved, the framework would establish the first global carbon pricing system in any industry.
Members of the IMO voted to approve the framework initially in April, agreeing to charge shipping companies for greenhouse gas emissions released by their vessels if they exceed a certain threshold.
The fee is intended to accelerate a transition to the use of cleaner fuels, such as biofuels.
Under the framework, shipowners who exceed certain thresholds would face a minimum tax of $100 for every ton of carbon dioxide emitted over the lowest baseline. Those that exceed higher thresholds will be forced to pay a $380 fee.
If adopted, the carbon tax would not go into effect until 2028, giving countries more than two years to decide how and if they would like to implement the rules.
Environmentalists and climate activists have lauded the international tax as a major win for lowering global carbon emissions. It is expected to raise upward of $40 billion by 2030 and reduce emissions by 8% in the same time frame.
IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez admitted Tuesday that the framework in its current form “is not perfect,” but insisted it sets a number of goal-based provisions critical for decarbonizing the shipping industry.
Possible impact on the US
The U.S. has adamantly opposed the net-zero framework, claiming that it “poses significant risks to the global economy and subjects not just Americans, but all IMO member states to an unsanctioned global tax regime that levies punitive and regressive financial penalties.”
Some analysts and economists have warned that the framework would force shipping companies to incur higher costs by switching to cleaner fuels, costs that would likely trickle down to consumers.
Meanwhile, others in the renewable fuels industry have said the framework would help boost the U.S. economy through increased production of American-made renewable fuels such as ethanol produced from corn, sorghum, and soybeans.
The U.S. only has a small share of worldwide commercial shipping, roughly 0.57%, but effects of the framework may not be limited to just that sector, warned Paul Mueller, a senior research fellow with the American Institute for Economic Research.
“It’s not just about the cost of bringing clothes or iPhones or things from China, consumer goods, but it will also affect the transportation of rare earth metals, and car batteries, and steel, and even inputs into all kinds of production processes,” Mueller told the Washington Examiner.
Even if the U.S. were to decide not to enforce the international tax, experts have warned, it would be difficult for the U.S. to evade, given its central position in global trade.
The framework also permits those who have signed on to it to inspect and detain noncompliant foreign vessels.
The Trump administration’s efforts to block the net-zero framework is the latest push from the U.S. to strengthen its hold on international debate over climate change. Since President Donald Trump took office, his administration has urged Europe and other allies to walk back climate change-related policies and regulations.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REJECTS ‘NET-ZERO’ PLAN AND CARBON TAX FOR INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING
Most recently, Trump and his Cabinet members called on the European Union to weaken rules such as its deforestation ban and the corporate sustainability due diligence directive, claiming that the regulations would negatively affect trade with the U.S.
If the EU and other member states of the IMO prevail in approving the net-zero framework this week, it will mark a major win for those still advocating international climate diplomacy and send a signal that many will resist pressure from the Trump administration.
