Who could be behind the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage?

Since the Nord Stream gas pipelines located in the Baltic Sea exploded on Tuesday, countries have been quick to point fingers as to who is behind the unusual leaks.

Germany’s Nord Stream AG, which operates the pipelines, is conducting tests to assess the damage. The company said in a statement that it cannot provide an estimate for when the gas pipelines’ infrastructure will be restored.

While the German-operated company determines a cause, several other European countries are ready to launch an investigation into potential sabotage. Josep Borrell Fontelles, the European Union high representative for foreign affairs and security, released a statement on Wednesday expressing the EU’s concern over the incident, stating that the leaks point to a “deliberate act” and are “not a coincidence and affect us all.”

“We will support any investigation aimed at getting full clarity on what happened and why, and will take further steps to increase our resilience in energy security,” Fontelles wrote. “Any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is utterly unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response.”

SUDDEN LEAKS IN BOTH GAS PIPELINES FROM RUSSIA HAVE EUROPE WARNING OF SABOTAGE

Europe Pipelines
A large disturbance in the sea can be observed off the coast of the Danish island of Bornholm Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022, following a series of unusual leaks on two natural gas pipelines running from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says she “cannot rule out” sabotage after three leaks were detected on Nord Stream 1 and 2.

The source of the explosions remains unclear as well. However, seismologists recorded one of the explosions at the same level as a 2.3-magnitude earthquake.

The pipelines sit 262-320 feet under the sea, with each line consisting of 100,000 24-tonne concrete weight-coated steel pipes, according to the Nord Stream website. The pipeline has three different design pressure sections and pipe wall thicknesses (34.4, 30.9, and 26.8 mm, respectively) corresponding to the gas pressure drop from Russia to Germany.

Submersive vehicles would be required to reach the pipelines, and an explosion of the recorded magnitude would most likely have come from placed explosives, per an analysis from Asia Times. However, the timeline for the explosives’ placement is unknown, as there have been no reports of submarines or underwater vehicles detected in the Baltic Sea as of now.

Eyes turned originally to the Ukraine-Russia war as the reason for the pipelines’ destruction. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told reporters that he believes Russia was clearly involved.

“The large-scale ‘gas leak’ from Nord Stream 1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU,” Podolyak said.

However, Russia would have very little to gain from sabotaging the pipelines. Russia’s state-owned Gazprom owns 51% of the Nord Stream pipelines, with European countries holding the remaining 49% — Wintershell Dea and E.ON in Germany with 15.5% each and Gasunie in the Netherlands and ENGIE in Paris with 9% each.

In September, Gazprom announced it would suspend all natural gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 to Europe indefinitely. Nord Stream 2 has not yet begun operation after Germany stated it would not approve Nord Stream 2 until the second half of 2022.

On Wednesday, Russia spokesman Dmitry S. Peskov called allegations of Russian involvement “predictably stupid and absurd” and accused the United States of involvement.

The U.S. appears to have prior knowledge of the pipeline breach, as the CIA warned Germany of possible attacks over a month ago. The agency has yet to comment on the situation.

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden said at a press conference in February with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that if Russia were to invade, the U.S. would “end” the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

“If Russia invades … then there will be … no longer a Nord Stream 2 pipeline,” Biden said.

When asked how the U.S. would end the pipeline, given that it has no ownership, Biden said, “I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.”

Russia has also pointed its finger at Ukraine. However, Ukraine is currently a NATO partner country. If Ukraine were found to be behind the explosions of the pipelines, which provide significant energy to NATO states, it could affect Ukraine’s relationship with the organization and its potential for full membership — something the country is aiming to achieve.

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Another potential source is Finland. While not a major power like Russia and the U.S., Finland entered a conflict with Russia over its decision to join NATO. Russia promptly cut off natural gas exports to Finland in May of this year, as well as electricity, ending the country’s nearly 50 years of importing. Finland’s entry into NATO was ratified on Tuesday.

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