President Donald Trump has followed through on many of his major campaign promises, but nearly a year out from the election, his vows to arrest inflation have proven elusive.
While Trump has implemented the most aggressive tariff agenda in generations, fulfilled his promises to curb illegal immigration, and bolster domestic energy policies, annual inflation is still running above the 2% level that the Federal Reserve considers healthy. If price pressures persist, it could represent a political liability for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
“President Trump very often touches a rail that he’d probably be wiser to stay away from, and one of those was during the campaign to promise that somehow he’d be in position to bring down inflation,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told the Washington Examiner.
SOYBEAN FARMERS HOPE TRUMP CAN PULL OFF ELEVENTH-HOUR DEAL WITH CHINA
Inflation rose a 10th of a percentage point to 3% for the year ending in September in the consumer price index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday. That is the most closely watched inflation gauge; notably, it is higher now than a year ago.
Still, inflation is far from its peak under former President Joe Biden. Inflation has gradually decreased from the peak of about 9% in 2022.
And while 3% inflation might seem manageable for consumers, they don’t perceive inflation as running at just 3% because they might feel the increases more cumulatively. For instance, while inflation has increased 3% over the past year, prices have, on average, increased over 9% in that same time.
Hamrick said that Trump has little control over the headline inflation numbers. That largely falls to the Fed, whose responsibility it is to conduct monetary policy and raise and lower interest rates.
Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and a partner at Firehouse Strategies, also pointed out that inflation isn’t something that Trump can just drive down. It takes time for average inflation to begin to fall.
“Presidents can’t just snap their fingers and make inflation go away; if they could, we’d never have inflation,” Conant told the Washington Examiner. He said that inflation is also something that can grow slowly but then be very challenging to tackle once it is loose.
“I don’t think it was ever realistic to think it would just stop overnight,” he added. “Once Trump won, to his credit, it is much lower now than it was a few years ago.”
The situation is also a bit confusing as it relates to interest rates. Typically, when interest rates go up, overall inflation falls by suppressing demand. But Trump has been pushing for the Fed to cut interest rates. That is because rates have been so high for so long, making things such as buying a home or taking out an auto loan more costly.
Lower interest rates might make certain things like taking on debt less burdensome, but there is also the fear that if rates are cut too soon and by too much, they could reignite inflation.
For instance, because of recently lowered interest rates, mortgage rates have fallen significantly, making it a bit easier for someone to buy a home than when Trump first started his second term.
Some individual goods and services have seen price decreases, while others have increased.
Gasoline prices were lower in September than a year ago, but electricity prices have risen more than 5% during that same time, well outpacing inflation. Used car prices increased by less than 1%, while new car prices jumped 5.1%. Food prices have also outpaced healthy 2% inflation.
Trump’s ambitious tariff agenda is another factor at play. Economists have debated to what extent the sweeping tariffs could further increase inflation or whether they represent a one-time price adjustment.
On balance, some of the worst fears about tariff-associated inflation haven’t materialized, although many economists are still concerned.
“While it’s fair to say that the inflationary impacts related to tariffs haven’t been as severe to date as would have been expected or was expected, that doesn’t mean that they won’t yet materialize further, and so as long as we have substantial tariffs, we have the economic risks that are associated with them,” Hamrick said.
And while inflation still hasn’t been tamped down to run at healthy levels, Trump has fulfilled many of his campaign promises.
“I think at this point during Trump’s first term, he didn’t have any signature legislative wins,” Conant said.
SOCIAL SECURITY COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENT SET AT 2.8% FOR NEXT YEAR
In just a matter of six months, Republicans in Congress passed their One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which incorporated a lot of the president’s promises from the campaign trail, including funding for the border and various tax cuts.
Trump has also been able to carry out many of the things he campaigned on through executive orders and the use of the executive branch.
