The Congressional Budget Office reported on Wednesday that the government shutdown will cost between $7 billion and $14 billion in total, depending on when Congress reaches a funding agreement.
The nonpartisan office’s estimate is far lower than that of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who projected the total cost would be north of $15 billion per week as long as the shutdown lasts.
When making the estimate earlier this month, Bessent initially misspoke in saying economic losses from the shutdown would amount to $15 billion per day. He meant $15 billion per week, taking the figure from a report published by the Council of Economic Advisers.
According to Bessent’s corrected estimate, the shutdown would have cost the United States more than $60 billion by this point.
CBO Director Phillip Swagel provided much lower estimates for three different scenarios.
If the Senate agreed to reopen the government this week by supporting the stopgap funding measure, the economy would lose $7 billion by the end of 2026. By Nov. 12, $11 billion would be incurred. That loss will only grow further to $14 billion if the shutdown drags on until Thanksgiving in November.
“In CBO’s assessment, the shutdown will delay federal spending and have a negative effect on the economy that will mostly, but not entirely, reverse once the shutdown ends,” Swagel wrote in a letter to House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX), who requested the report.
CBO says the nation’s real gross domestic product will drop by one to two percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2025, lower than it would have been if there had been no shutdown. It adds that the real GDP will be “temporarily higher” after the shutdown ends.
The agency also notes that the estimated $7 billion to $14 billion in losses will not be recovered eventually.
Beyond the shutdown’s lasting implications for the economy, federal workers and welfare recipients are being harmed by the lack of federal funding.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN FALLOUT SHIFTS FROM FEDERAL WORKERS TO WELFARE RECIPIENTS
About 700,000 federal employees have been furloughed, while food benefits for more than 42 million Americans under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are set to run out this Saturday.
With no resolution in sight, the Senate has held 13 votes on the Republican-backed “clean” continuing resolution to partially fund the federal government through Nov. 21. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said he expects the 14th vote to happen Thursday. There is no currently scheduled vote for reopening the government on Wednesday.
