President Joe Biden will arrive in the Middle East this week to discuss security and energy cooperation, confronting a region coming to terms with American retrenchment and where he isn’t necessarily seen as an improvement over his predecessor as his political fortunes wither at home.
Biden faces challenges during stops in Israel, the West Bank, and Saudi Arabia, where leaders are eager for signs that the U.S. is not turning its back on their interests amid a foreign policy dominated by Russia and a rising China. In Washington, Biden is weighed down by criticism over soaring gasoline prices, questions over his political future, and his decision to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after promising to make the “pariah” kingdom “pay” for the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
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How much Biden can deliver for America isn’t clear.
“Biden is trapped in a weakness narrative, and they know that,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former U.S. negotiator under both Republican and Democratic administrations. “They’ll see it in the midterms. And they may see it in 2024.”
“I’m not arguing that they won’t take what Biden has to give,” he added, “but I don’t think they’re amenable to being pushed around by him.”
Biden’s approval rating has cratered in recent months, lately sinking below that of former President Donald Trump at the same point in his presidency and calling into question his reelection prospects.
“The Middle Easterners read these polls,” Miller said. “They get it.”
He said two leaders, in particular, might be looking beyond Biden toward the return of a Republican president in the White House: former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the crown prince. Both forged close ties with the Trump administration, which helped broker normalization agreements between Israel and other Arab countries that Saudi Arabia now appears poised to emulate.
Biden, who said his visit comes at the request of Israeli leaders, has emphasized the potential to expand upon the Trump-era deals, known as the Abraham Accords.
“Part of the purpose is, the trip to the Middle East, is to deepen Israel’s integration in the region, which I think we’re going to be able to do,” Biden told reporters at a news conference. “And that’s why Israel’s leaders have come out so strongly for my going to Saudi.”
The White House and Saudi Arabia have sought to dampen expectations that the Gulf energy producers will pump more oil, with Biden insisting that persuading Saudi Arabia to release additional barrels “is not the purpose of the trip.” He has also downplayed a meeting with the crown prince, whom a U.S. intelligence report deemed responsible for Khashoggi’s death.
Arriving first in Jerusalem, Biden will meet with Israel’s interim Prime Minister Yair Lapid, kicking off a four-pronged agenda that includes plans to foster normalization opportunities between the Jewish state and Saudi Arabia, strengthen U.S. security cooperation, and coordinate with leaders over the Iran nuclear talks. During a visit to the West Bank, Biden will meet with the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, as the Palestinians recalibrate their ties to the U.S., which frayed after four years under Trump.
In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Biden will attend a Gulf Cooperation Council summit of regional oil producers and hold a separate bilateral meeting with King Salman and his leadership team, which includes Crown Prince Mohammed.
Citing an adviser to the crown prince, a report noted the possibility of an unprecedented meeting between Biden and Israeli and Saudi leaders. Besides providing a boost to Israel’s Lapid, the event would deliver a diplomatic coup to the president amid sparse visible opportunities for success.
While Biden is expected to raise human rights issues with Saudi leaders, Miller said Biden might face blowback if he pushes the kingdom on a number of uncomfortable topics.
“If Biden thinks he’s going to go to Saudi and tell the Saudis what to do, he is not thinking clearly,” Miller said.
The president’s reluctance to concede the oil market dynamic while meeting with the Saudi crown prince is part of the administration’s “increasingly mixed signals” in the region, said Richard Goldberg, a Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior adviser and former White House National Security Council aide. This includes the talks over a return to the Iran nuclear deal, which have struggled after more than a year, he said, even as Iran continues to advance its nuclear capacity.
“Whether you’re sitting in Jerusalem or you’re sitting in Riyadh, you’re going to be very confused right now as to what the direction of the United States is with respect to Iran and a security strategy for the Middle East,” Goldberg said.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said that questions over America’s commitments to the region would be unavoidable during the president’s visit.
“Biden will be asked at every stop about the U.S. commitment to the Middle East,” said Shapiro, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Biden administration official, noting how across three successive administrations, America has made clear its interest in limiting direct military engagement in the Middle East.
Americans are wary of U.S. intervention in the Middle East, with a poll by YouGov for Concerned Veterans for America finding that most people do not want Biden to make security commitments or promise troops to the region.
According to a recent University of Maryland survey, Americans showed sparse enthusiasm for Biden’s trip, with fewer than 1 in 4 respondents approving of the visit. Among Democrats, the visit became less popular when Israel was mentioned, with a similar dynamic among Republicans when Saudi Arabia was invoked.
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Shapiro said the timing of Biden’s visit presents an opportunity to “stabilize” America’s commitments to these countries, as they work together to secure their security needs with the U.S. “as an active supporter, but not always the tip of the spear.”
The survey results showcase another challenge for Biden, who faces a Democratic Party divided over America’s support for Israel, with a vocal left-wing flank that is highly critical of Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians.
