Republican strategists in three key early states say the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria will propel more hawkish presidential candidates in 2016.
The terrorist group’s gruesome string of attacks and beheadings appears to be ending an internal GOP debate over foreign policy, putting interventionists in a better position in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
In particular, that could hurt Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who had pushed for less U.S. involvement overseas, while helping more hawkish candidates like Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
The Washington Examiner interviewed three experienced GOP operatives who hail from the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Here’s what they said:
An Iowa Republican insider who worked for a 2012 campaign:
“Peace through strength is going to have to be a platform for these candidates. In the last caucus cycle, foreign affairs in general were not a hot topic — but they’re going to have to be and will be in next one. It seems like whole world is on fire, between our border, and Russia, and [the Islamic State] — it’s consuming a lot of the conversation right now. In 2011, when everyone was crisscrossing Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and we had fatigue, not everyone agreed that Iraq and Afghanistan were handled well, so it was real easy to make blanket statements — no interventions, no entangling alliances.”
A Republican consultant in New Hampshire who worked for a 2012 campaign:
“Events seem to be spinning out of control and that concerns New Hampshire voters. The [Islamic State] situation has its home here particularly, because James Foley was a New Hampshire native and Steven Sotloff went to school here. Sen. Marco Rubio [R-Fla.] is smartly filling the muscular foreign policy lane right now. I think it will eventually benefit him as New Hampshire voters engage and come home to his more traditionally Reagan-esque American posture abroad.”
Hogan Gidley, a South Carolina consultant who worked for former Sen. Rick Santorum’s 2012 campaign:
“South Carolina is a huge military state in the sense that there are several bases in the state. Down the coast, in Columbia — the military presence there is one of the reasons [Sen. John] McCain [R-Ariz.] did so well [in 2008] and saved his nomination. It’s vitally important in the national picture for any Republican, but very important in South Carolina. It matters this time as opposed to last in that foreign policy doesn’t happen in vacuum. Primary voters are going to be looking at it butted up against Obama’s foreign policy. Because they’ll be looking at America’s reputation on the national stage against Obama’s foreign policy, it’s going to be that much more important for the Republican candidates to put forth a strong, decisive foreign policy.”
