In testimony yesterday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, admitted that the most that could be done by way of creating an effective Free Syrian Army – that is, the forces of the moderate opposition to Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad – was to train a force of 5,000 over the next year.
That’s probably realistic, in the sense that the Free Syrian Army is starting from a very low point, but it’s also a tacit confession that the prospects for lasting success against the Islamic State enemy are slim and distant.
Just to review: the rise of the Islamic State has its origins in the Syrian civil war, and eastern Syria is where it has its greatest base of support and safest sanctuary. The town of Raqqah is the “capital” of its would-be caliphate. Intelligence estimates of IS troop strength are uncertain, but the numbers and capabilities have grown rapidly and continue to grow; total effectives are now some thing above 30,000. The Islamic State’s most vital lifeline extends through northern Syria into Turkey. And, by training the Syrians in small increments, eight weeks at a time, the result will be small units with limited capabilities, dribbled into the fight in penny-packets. Even with support from U.S. airpower, the Free Syrian Army isn’t going to be defeating the Islamic State any time soon.
Moreover, as Sen. John McCain pointed out in questions at the hearing, the Free Syrian Army’s principal enemy is the Assad regime, not the Islamic State. Dempsey allowed the point in answering McCain, and also agreed that, if the Free Syrian Army were attacked by Assad forces, including from the air, the United States would be forced to support the opposition. That’s good – a one-way, one-sided alliance wouldn’t be a very firm one – but there are consequences. A partnership with the Free Syrian Army means taking a side in the Syrian war.
In other words, the administration’s IS campaign is incomplete – to be generous – or incoherent – to be blunt.
