The upcoming Group of 20 summit in Argentina will mark the re-emergence of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – commonly referred to as MBS – on the global stage for the first time since the murder of dissident Jamal Khashoggi.
Simon Henderson, of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he would be “astonished” if President Trump and the crown prince did not meet at the confab, likely for informal talks or a photo opportunity.
“From Mr. Trump’s point of view, he’s decided the relations with Saudi Arabia are more important than trying to work out precisely who is to blame. But at the same time, I would be surprised if he wanted to give MBS a free pass on the issue.”
As leaders from the 19 member countries and the European Union converge on Buenos Aires, there is intense anticipation that Trump could meet with the crown prince on the sidelines of the summit.
During the gathering, Trump is expected to attend bilateral meetings with the leaders of four countries, as well as a working dinner with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He will also have informal talks with the leaders of Turkey and South Korea, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters aboard Air Force One. A scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was canceled Thursday because of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
Trump told reporters before departing Washington for Buenos Aires that he “would have met with” the crown prince, but such a meeting wasn’t set up. “We just didn’t have time,” he said.
While a formal sit-down with Crown Prince Mohammed may not be on Trump’s schedule, any interaction between the two is likely to be highly scrutinized.
Henderson said Trump not meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed would be a problem as it would stand in stark contrast with the message telegraphed by his administration, most recently in an op-ed from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the Wall Street Journal.
That message, Henderson said, “was essentially that Saudi Arabia is a very important partner of the United States and we mustn’t let this unfortunate episode get in the way of the bigger dimension.” He added: “If it’s a very important partner of the United States, when you go to a summit meeting like this, you meet your very important partner,” Henderson said.
The crown prince arrived in Argentina for the G-20 on Wednesday, and Trump is scheduled to touch down in Buenos Aires on Thursday night. The gathering presents the first opportunity for him to come face-to-face with Trump and other European leaders.
The CIA has assessed the crown prince ordered the journalist’s killing, a judgment that contradicts Saudi Arabia’s assertions he was not involved.
Trump, meanwhile, told reporters of Crown Prince Mohammed that “maybe he did, maybe he didn’t” order Khashoggi’s killing. He issued a statement last week reaffirming his administration’s support for Saudi Arabia and said the U.S. would not punish the country beyond sanctioning 17 Saudis involved in Khashoggi’s death.
Kamran Bokhari, a national security and foreign policy specialist with the University of Ottawa’s Professional Development Institute, said Crown Prince Salman’s decision to attend the gathering in Buenos Aires signals Saudi Arabia may be trying to normalize his role.
“From the point of view of the crown prince, this is his way of trying to rehabilitate his image and trying to gauge what kind of reception he is going to get,” he told the Washington Examiner.
While Trump has said the U.S. will continue its close relations with Saudi Arabia, experts said the reception the crown prince receives from other world leaders will be telling.
Mohammed bin Salman is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Argentine President Mauricio Macri, and French President Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the G-20, according to reports.
Canada, meanwhile, announced on the eve of the summit it would be imposing sanctions on the 17 Saudis who were responsible for Khashoggi’s killing and reiterated its calls for a “credible and independent” investigation.
“We know Canada is coming with full guns blazing, so let’s see who else does that,” Bokhari said. If other Western leaders give him an icy reception, Bokhari said, “that’s going to be very telling of how the world is responding to the crown prince and what they think.”
The G-20 will kick off Friday and continue into Saturday. Henderson, of The Washington Institute, noted that the event this year has garnered interest far beyond its typical audience, a shift he attributed to Khashoggi’s murder.
“The world,” he said, “is watching.”
