The past few weeks, the world has been rocked by the Trump administration’s announcement that it’s pulling American troops out of Northern Syria. As a consequence of the American pullout, Turkey has undertaken military action against Northern Syria.
On the domestic front, bipartisan criticisms from Democrats and hawkish Republicans have been leveled at the administration. The international community has also reacted negatively — particularly countries within the European Union. And the criticism has followed two distinct lines: first, that the United States is betraying the Kurds and will lead to “bloodbath,” and second, that the withdrawal will lead to the resurgence of ISIS.
This is all overblown. In fact, President Trump’s decision is a wise and necessary one, long overdue.
As a candidate, Trump gave signs of a possible disengagement from the region, such as when he said, “If I become President, the era of nation-building will be ended.” He campaigned on ending military adventures in the Middle East.
Last December, he tweeted “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency.” In another tweet, he wrote: “I campaigned on getting out of Syria and other places.”
So this couldn’t have taken anyone, including the Kurds, by surprise.
Now that Trump’s long-announced policy is being finally implemented, phony outrage abounds. The language about the betrayal of allies evokes something that America has done to actual allies in the past, such as Britain during the Suez Crisis. The so-called betrayal of certain Kurdish inside Syria who worked with us against ISIS is, in that context, not surprising at all. It is not in the interest of the United States to support a Kurdish State, and what’s more, we never promised one.
The creation of a Kurdish State in northern Syria under the leadership of the YPG — a group closely connected to the decades-old Marxist terrorist group PKK — would destabilize one of the most important allies the United States has in the region, NATO member Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s decision to attack YPG units was a certainty in the long run. It had only been delayed by the small American presence in the area. Turkey sees these Kurdish units in Syria — not even just “the Kurds” in general — as a security threat.
And so this criticism about the Turks’ likelihood of invasion, particularly coming from hawkish Republicans, has a fatal flaw — namely, that the only remedy would be a permanent occupation of the region. American troops would have to serve as a buffer between Turkey and the Kurds … basically forever.
The second argument is the threat of a resurgent ISIS. This could come to pass, and if the Kurds are crushed the United States may not have allies on the ground to fight the terrorist organization. However, it’s important to point out that every actor in Syria — Assad, Russia, the Kurds, and Turkey — all oppose ISIS. In that context, it is hard to imagine how this group could become a threat to the United States. In all probability, ISIS will be attacked by the other actors in the conflict.
The continued Syrian Civil War is highlighting two things that should be obvious: The best-case scenario for the United States is that Assad in the end triumphs and finally brings stability to the country. The second and most important of all, the United States should have never intervened in the first place. ISIS wasn’t a threat to America as Paul Pillar noted. “The fight against ISIS is, in multiple respects, not America’s fight, he said. “The United States is not the principal original target of the group.”
But more importantly, the lessons from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya have to mean something. At some point, someone has to learn the lesson about avoiding deeper involvement by the United States in ridiculous campaigns for Middle Eastern regime change.
President Trump campaigned and was elected with a promise to apply this lesson. With any luck, he will ignore the chorus of boos from those who want more of America’s demonstrably failed Middle Eastern policy.
Ojel L. Rodriguez AKC (@ojelrodriguez) is a freelance writer and graduate student from University College London.
