Elon Musk appears as new vulnerability on Taiwan’s horizon

Taiwan needs a satellite-based internet provider independent of tech titan Elon Musk, a respected former Taiwanese lawmaker warned.

“Our biggest vulnerability is the internet connectivity cutoff,” former Taiwanese legislator-at-large Jason Hsu, a senior research fellow with Harvard Kennedy School, said Wednesday. “We need satellites, low-orbit satellite connectivities. And, we also cannot rely on Elon Musk’s Starlink, because he might have a large business interest in China.”

Hsu put a spotlight on that risk in the final days before a Taiwanese presidential election that Chinese functionaries characterize as a referendum on “the prospects for peace and war.” Such threatening rhetoric is widely perceived as an attempt to pressure Taiwanese voters to reject the incumbent president’s Democratic People’s Party in favor of the Kuomintang, which has a pro-Beijing reputation.

“Taiwan is at a pre-war situation, because there are a lot of gray zone war activities going on in the Taiwan Strait, not to mention China has sent hundreds of war plans circulating Taiwan,” Hsu told a Politico Live audience during a discussion of the election. “There’s also a lot of fishing boats, disguised … messing around with our undersea infrastructure.”

Musk has demonstrated the geopolitical significance of his companies in recent years, most dramatically by using Starlink to provide internet access to Ukraine throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion. Yet his susceptibility to Russian diplomatic messaging reportedly has thwarted at least one significant Ukrainian military operation and has stirred unease in Washington. And, likewise, his financial exposure to China, centered especially on his electric car company, Tesla, has prompted U.S. lawmakers to debate legislation that would impede NASA’s relationship with SpaceX.

“So we would petition to the U.S. to help boost our capabilities in satellite connectivity,” Hsu said. “In the event of a conflict, we need to keep [the] island operating and functional, and it’s very crucial to keep the island connected.”

Taiwanese voters head to the polls on Saturday to make their choice of who will succeed the term-limited president, Tsai Ing-wen. Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te has enjoyed front-runner status throughout the campaign, but New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih of the KMT remains within striking distance, according to the latest polling. 

“The presidency is the DPP’s to lose, but the KMT still has a fighting chance,” Australian National University lecturer Wen-Ti Sung told the Japan Times

Hsu, who served in the Taiwanese Parliament from 2016 to 2020, appeared on the virtual panel alongside an incumbent lawmaker from the Democratic People’s Party and a bipartisan pair of U.S. lawmakers who sit on the House Select Committee on the Chinese Community Party.

“Regardless of who wins, the American people will stand with the people of Taiwan and the vibrant, beautiful democracy of Taiwan,” said Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (R-IL), the top Democrat on the China committee. “And that’s on a bipartisan basis: We will continue to be there for the Taiwanese people.”

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Tsai’s party allies have tried to downplay the idea that a victory by Lai would lead to a war with China, in part by emphasizing that he would not attempt to declare independence in a format that would alter the delicate diplomatic “status quo” that has mitigated the risk of a conflict over the long-term status of the island democracy.

“It’s clear that the CCP’s aim is to take advantage of people’s fear and to create internal conflict and harm Taiwan’s democracy,” DPP lawmaker Yun Fan said. “DPP’s presidential candidate…is committed to preserving peace, democracy, and prosperity for Taiwan, which is to maintain the status quo.”

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