President Donald Trump is weighing his options for whether to authorize a kinetic military operation against Iran, but there are questions about what the objective and targets could be in such a mission.
The president warned that an American “armada” is heading to the Middle East, first threatening earlier this month that he would get involved if Iran kept massacring its own population amid widespread protests but has since demanded that they agree to a new deal involving their nuclear program to preempt a possible U.S. attack.
If the president agrees to a military operation, there is a wide array of targets the military could hit, but it depends on the mission’s objective. It could be to target the Iranian security forces responsible for the deadly crackdown of protests, or their nuclear facilities again, or even a possible decapitation operation against the regime with the goal of removing the supreme leader from power. If they go for a decapitation operation, it’s unknown who would take over, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged this week.
“What it would look like very much depends on the mission itself,” Mona Yacoubian, who is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Examiner. “So if the strikes are undertaken to punish Iran for its repressive actions against protesters, you could see symbolic strikes, targeted strikes hitting symbols of Iranian repression. Maybe it’s the Ministry of Intelligence, maybe it’s particular IRGC-associated target, or Basij-associated target.”
With news of Iranian security forces cracking down on the protests, Trump said on Jan. 2, “We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” and less than two weeks later, added, “HELP IS ON THE WAY.” But so far, the U.S. has stayed on the sidelines.
The Iranian government said more than 3,100 people were killed in the protests, however, human rights organizations said the death toll is very likely to be much higher in the tens of thousands. With the protests having largely died down, it’s unknown whether their plight will still be a factor in any U.S. operation, though there are non-kinetic operations the president could approve to aid them.
Short of direct military operations, the U.S. could attempt to get internet back for the people of Iran because the government issued a countrywide blackout or they could try “really enforcing maximum pressure sanctions against the Islamic Republic to make sure its security apparatus doesn’t have the funding to continue to stay in power,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, who is an Iran expert with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner.
Trump’s more recent demands for Iranian leaders harken back to its nuclear and weapons programs, long-standing concerns for U.S. and Israeli leaders predating the current administration. He sought to make a deal with Tehran last year over their nuclear program, and when the talks stalled, Trump approved Operation Midnight Hammer targeting three of their nuclear facilities.
The Pentagon acknowledged in the weeks after the operation that it likely set back their nuclear operations one to two years.
Iran has tried rebuilding its long-range ballistic missile arsenal it depleted during the 12-day war with Israel.
“So unfortunately, the message that sent to the U.S. and to Israel was that Iran still hasn’t learned its lesson,” Alex Plitsas, an expert with the Atlantic Council, told the Washington Examiner. “It’s still continuing to engage in the same behavior that welcomed the, you know, the Israeli and U.S. operations during the 12-day War, and that this is going to continue in perpetuity, until something changes.”
This time around, Steve Witkoff, the president’s envoy, said they would like the deal to include caps on its enrichment of uranium, its stockpile of ballistic missiles, as well as their support for the proxy forces it spent decades supporting and building up.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Friday that Iran is ready for nuclear talks as long as they are “fair and equitable.”
“I could see Iran being willing to engage in negotiations just to buy time, but those demands are not going to be met, particularly not right now, after a huge rebellion, which was only put down by killing maybe 25,000 unarmed citizens,” Elliott Abrams, who served as Trump’s envoy for Iran during his first administration, told the Washington Examiner. “To agree to those demands would be viewed as a sign of weakness by the Iranian regime, and they would, I think, be even less likely to agree than usual.”
Multiple Gulf countries have publicly said they would not allow an attack on Iran to be launched on their soil, underscoring their concern about possible Iranian retaliation if the U.S. does attack and about the possibility of uncontrolled escalation.
Trump’s history shows he has a tendency to approve very specific, short operations that can be announced after the mission has already concluded. Specific examples include the American assassination of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020, or more recently, Operation Midnight Hammer and the operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.
Despite feeling emboldened by the success of both of those missions that occurred since his second term began, there are risks involved in kinetic operations in Iran, including their threat of retaliation, which could then trigger follow-up U.S. operations.
“What if the Iranians respond by hitting an American ship at the Gulf or American base and killing Americans? Then [Trump’s] going to have to respond again,” Abrams said. “Then it’s not a one-shot deal. Then it continues. Maybe it only continues for a second day, but maybe it’s more than that. And you know, he has never, there’s never been a case where he ordered Americans into combat and an American lost his life. That would be something new for the president.”
The U.S. has 30,000 to 40,000 troops stationed in the region at several bases in the region, any of which could be targets if Iran responds or launches a preemptive strike. After Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran carried out a telegraphed response targeting the U.S.’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
RUBIO: ‘NO ONE KNOWS’ WHO WOULD TAKE OVER IF IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER IS REMOVED
Iran could also target Israel or one of the Gulf countries if the U.S. attacks. U.S. forces in the region helped Israel defend against three Iranian aerial barrages launched in the last two years, including during the 12-day war last June.
Additionally, the Trump administration will need to contemplate the age-old question of how to turn what could be a successful military operation into a long-term strategic victory for the U.S.
