The odds are against Juan Guaidó’s efforts to drive illegitimate, failed President Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela. President Trump is on Guaidó’s side, but Guaidó needs support beyond the realm of social media.
Maduro’s violent, ongoing crackdown against Guaidó’s supporters evidences why this concern is urgent.
While President Guaidó retains popular support, including in Hugo Chávez’s former strongholds of urban poor, he cannot deter security forces loyal to Maduro. The military might emboldens Maduro by giving him the confidence that Guaidó’s protest movement will eventually fissure and fizzle out.
This puts the U.S. in an uncomfortable position. We have declared Guaidó the rightful president of Venezuela, thus dubbing Maduro an illegitimate ruler, governing only by military might rather than any lawful right.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday tweeted that the U.S. “fully supports” Guaidó’s movement for freedom. Vice President Mike Pence tweeted that “we are with you!”
So far these are empty words.
Guaidó needs the U.S. to strangle Maduro’s illicit money flows. U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan officials and agencies have been sporadic and insufficient at tipping the scales of power. Maduro’s sustained money flows have allowed him to pay off security force commanders and to procure Cuba’s highly capable security and intelligence support.
That is, Maduro’s power depends on his oil exports.
That’s why Guaidó has asked us to cut off Maduro’s oil supply to Cuba’s communist government. An effort to end Maduro’s oil theft would greatly inhibit his continued power.
We recognize that stopping oil cargo ships on the high seas is no small step. Deploying U.S. Navy warships to seize Maduro’s oil ships is an act of force, and thus a grave decision. The key is that this act of force would be tempered to democratic authority (Guaidó’s democratically vested request for help) and proportion (not using violence to destroy).
But we believe it would serve a critical strategic purpose: ensuring that Maduro and his military supporters recognize the U.S. won’t abandon Guaidó. That would persuade generals around Maduro that their best decision would be to throw support behind Guaidó. It would also suggest to Maduro that he might be best advised to depart Venezuela now.
