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GOP hurtles toward vote on mystery healthcare bill. As kids, many of us ate Dum Dum lollipops, which had a number of standard flavors printed on the wrappers — such as cherry, grape, orange and root beer — but there was always one, with a whole bunch of question marks on the wrapper, known as the “mystery flavor.” On Tuesday, Republicans are expected to vote on a mystery healthcare bill. GOP leadership is ready to call for a vote on a procedural motion that would start as much as 20 hours of debate on the House-passed healthcare bill, the American Health Care Act. If that motion gets the 50 votes it needs, assuming a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Mike Pence, the House bill would be stripped out and a new bill would be swapped in. It is not clear what that bill might be or if it could gain sufficient support. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., announced Tuesday’s vote on the Senate floor Monday. “I will vote yes on Motion to Proceed,” he said. “I urge my colleagues to do the same.” Pence plans to be in the Senate to break a tie if there is one, Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price told reporters Monday.
The political challenge of voting for a mystery bill. Some Republicans who may have serious reservations about the Senate healthcare bill still may be inclined to vote for a motion to proceed, in that it’s a way to satisfy the demands of leadership and act like a team player without having to commit to any sort of final legislation. But voting for the motion to proceed would create an opening for Democratic challengers to attack Republican incumbents by blurring the distinction, and saying they voted for the House healthcare bill, or whatever ends up being the Senate bill. In an attempt to defend themselves, Republican incumbents would be forced into a situation where they have to try to parse for voters the difference between a vote on a motion to proceed and a vote for final passage. Typically, when an incumbent is forced into complicated equivocations using Washington language, the advantage goes to the challenger. Especially this time when the most honest defense is, “When I voted to advance the bill, I didn’t know what bill we were going to be voting on.”
Rand Paul moves to ‘yes’ on motion to proceed, says he’s been assured a clean repeal vote. Paul tweeted Tuesday morning that he received an assurance that senators would be voting on a “clean repeal” of the healthcare bill, and if that fails, on a series of different elements of repeal — such as repealing Obamacare’s taxes and mandates. That was enough to win him over to at least vote to advance the bill.
John McCain returning to the Senate. In a sign of how close the vote is, the Arizona Republican will be back for the first time since being diagnosed with brain cancer. “Senator McCain looks forward to returning to the United States Senate tomorrow to continue working on important legislation, including health care reform, the National Defense Authorization Act, and new sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea,” a McCain spokesman said. McCain said he plans to vote for the motion to proceed.
Will they get to 50? “It’s been my experience that the sight of the gallows focuses the mind,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., who plans to vote for the motion to proceed. “And so it’s time to vote and for everybody to stand up and be counted.”
Seven senators to watch: With Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, already a “no” on the motion to proceed, McConnell can afford to lose only one more vote if he hopes to advance legislation. Meaning, any two of the following senators, who have been critical throughout the process, could sink the bill:
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va.
Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev.
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.
Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah
Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska
Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio
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From President Trump this morning: Speaking on Twitter, the president wrote: “Big day for HealthCare. After 7 years of talking, we will soon see whether or not Republicans are willing to step up to the plate! ObamaCare is torturing the American People. The Democrats have fooled the people long enough. Repeal or Repeal & Replace! I have pen in hand. So great that John McCain is coming back to vote. Brave – American hero! Thank you John. This will be a very interesting day for HealthCare.The Dems are obstructionists but the Republicans can have a great victory for the people! The American people have waited long enough. There has been enough talk and no action for seven years. Now is the time for action!”
He tried to rally Republicans in a speech Monday. “Any senator who votes against starting debate is telling America that you are fine with the Obamacare nightmare,” Trump said during remarks at the White House. “The question for every senator, Democrat or Republican, is whether they will side with Obamacare’s architects … or with its forgotten victims.” The White House said senators must not only vote in support of the motion to proceed but also to pursue a plan that would repeal Obamacare and replace it with reforms that “expand choice and lower costs.” “As Obamacare exchanges continue a collapse that began years ago, the administration firmly believes that inaction on healthcare reform is not an option,” the Office of Management and Budget said in a Statement of Administration Policy. “The administration strongly encourages all senators to support the motion to proceed to H.R. 1628 and to move forward on repealing Obamacare and replacing it with true reforms that expand choice and lower costs.”
Trump jokes in speech to Boy Scouts he’ll fire Tom Price if Obamacare isn’t repealed. “Hopefully he will get the votes tomorrow to start our path to killing this horrible thing known as Obamacare that is really hurting us,” Trump said, turning to Price, the Health and Human Services secretary, who joined the president on stage at the National Boy Scout Jamboree in West Virginia. As the Boy Scouts in the crowd began chanting “U.S.A.,” Trump asked Price if he would “get the votes.” “He better get the votes,” Trump said. “Otherwise I will say, Tom you’re fired.”
Study: Cruz amendment would lead to more uninsured. A new analysis found that a key amendment from Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah to get hardline conservatives to support a Senate health bill would lead to 4.1 million fewer people with individual insurance plans. The analysis from the consulting firm Avalere found that compared to current law, the amendment would lead to 4.1 million people without insurance on the individual market by 2022.
About 10 million people have Obamacare coverage through the exchanges, as of March. The amendment would let insurers sell plans that do not comply with Obamacare’s mandates as long as they offer one that does. The reason for the steep enrollment declines would be the significant premium increases in the market selling Obamacare-compliant plans. It runs counter to an analysis from HHS that found the amendment could lower premiums and raise enrollment, but experts have criticized that study as flawed.
Rep. Mark Meadows: Congress needs to cancel summer vacation if bill fails. “Obviously any time you pass anything in the House and it doesn’t go anywhere in the Senate, we are used to that,” the North Carolina Republican said at the National Press Club Monday. “This is a unique situation,” he added. “A motion to proceed [to start debate on the health bill] and getting something out of the Senate is a must, it is not something we can fail at.” If the bill fails, “what they need to do is make sure that we stay in on August until ultimately the pressure of going home they make some type of compromise.”
Rep. Blake Farenthold blames ‘some female senators from the Northeast.’ He said if had been male senators who were opposing the healthcare plan, he would have challenged them to a duel. More.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich: ‘Mistake’ for Senate to hold healthcare vote. “The American people will come out on the losing end if Senate Republicans try to force through a new healthcare proposal with no bipartisanship, transparency or open dialogue,” the Republican governor said Monday. “Until Congress can step back from political gamesmanship and come together with a workable, bipartisan plan, it is a mistake for the Senate to proceed with a vote on Tuesday and force a one-sided deal that the American people are clearly against.”
John Boehner doesn’t sound optimistic. The former House speaker says Republicans will “never” repeal Obamacare because Americans “have gotten accustomed to it,” but failure to do so would cause them to be “annihilated” during the 2018 midterm elections. “Here we are, seven months into this year, and yet they’ve not passed this bill,” the Ohio Republican said to a group in Las Vegas, according to a video recording obtained by the Washington Post. “Now, they’re never … they’re not going to repeal and replace Obamacare. It’s been around too long. And the American people have gotten accustomed to it. Governors have gotten accustomed to this Medicaid expansion, and so trying to pull it back is really not going to work.”
Nuns urge senators to oppose any bill repealing Obamacare, cutting Medicaid. More than 7,000 Catholic nuns wrote in a letter that they are urging senators to oppose the motion to proceed to debate and called the GOP’s plan to repeal and replace parts of Obamacare “immoral and contrary to the teachings of our Catholic faith.” The nuns are being led by Sister Simone Campbell, who advocated for the Affordable Care Act in 2010. The letter focuses on the Better Care Reconciliation Act, but urges senators to oppose the motion to proceed for “any bill that would repeal the ACA and cut Medicaid.” “Rather than continuing to negotiate partisan legislation that would cause tens of millions of Americans to lose access to health coverage, Congress should seek bipartisan solutions to expand quality, affordable coverage,” a preamble to the letter states.
Dems call for ‘the enforcer’ on drug prices. Democrats announced their new “better deal” slogan and policy platform on Monday, with several well-known policies such as letting Medicare negotiate to lower drug prices. But a new idea would be to create a new “price gouging” enforcer who would be “independent and confirmable” by the Senate. The enforcer would lead a new agency intended to investigate drug makers and identify drugs that have “unconscionable price increases and impose fines on the manufacturers that are proportional to the size of the price hike, reinvesting the money from the fines into new cures research and development at the National Institutes of Health.”
RUNDOWN
Axios Shifting hard Medicaid decisions to the states
Reuters Slight drop in measles vaccinations could triple infections in U.S. kids
Bloomberg One insurer is making Obamacare work
Kaiser Health News Price transparency in medicine faces stiff opposition from doctors and hospitals
Politico Obamacare repeal vote still too close to call
The Hill Top Dem: Ironic McCain could back bill that would put people with illnesses at risk
STAT News Psychiatry group tells members they can defy ‘Goldwater Rule’ and comment on Trump’s mental health
Roll Call Trump sees power in Twitter, but not to sell health bill
Calendar
TUESDAY | JULY 25
2:15 Senate to vote on whether to begin debate on the House-passed healthcare bill, the American Health Care Act.
WEDNESDAY | JULY 26
7:30 a.m. 1101 K St NW. Bloomberg Government event on the “Cost of Healthcare” with Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La. Details.
8:30 a.m. Anthem second-quarter earnings call. Details.
8:30 a.m. 660 North Capitol St. NW. Urban Institute event on “Addressing Housing and Health:
How Cities Are Making a Difference. Details.
9:30 am. Dirksen 106. Special Committee on Aging hearing on ““Progress Toward a Cure for Type I Diabetes: Research and the Artificial Pancreas.” Details.
10 a.m. Congressional Black Caucus to host “Trumpcare Twitter Town Hall” using the hashtag #CBCOnHealthcare.
10:15 a.m. 2322 Rayburn. House Energy and Commerce hearing on “Examining the Extension of Special Needs Plans.” Details.
