The United States will reach a level of herd immunity to COVID-19 that will allow for a return to normal by April, according to Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Makary noted that the number of COVID-19 cases is down 77% in the last six weeks. He claimed this is due to natural immunity among people who have been previously infected and the 15% of the population already vaccinated.
Depending on the estimate, herd immunity to the coronavirus is thought to be when 60% to 80% of the population have either been infected or vaccinated.
“As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected,” Makary wrote. “At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”
Makary’s analysis depends on the number of people who have been infected. About 28 million people in the U.S. have been infected, about 8% of the population. Makary argued that the real number is much higher, possibly 55%, or about 182 million people.
HERE’S HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE REALLY BEEN INFECTED BY THE CORONAVIRUS
Experts agree that the numbers undercount the true number of people who have been infected, given that many people have mild or no symptoms and never get tested. But scientists that the Washington Examiner spoke with have said the real number is about 4 to 4.5 times higher than the estimate. That would mean about 31% to 38% of the U.S. population has natural immunity, or about 104 million to 126 million.
Epidemiologists also attribute the decline to the fact that the holiday season is now six weeks past and that people adhering to mask-wearing and social distancing appears to have increased recently.
Additionally, cases are coming off of all-time highs in the U.S.
“Part of the reason it looks like we’ve dropped so much is that we were so high in early January,” said Susan Hassig, an epidemiology professor at the Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. “We’re lower, but we’re not low.”
The U.S. is still far above the peak of the summer surge, when daily cases averaged almost 63,000.
COVID-19 CASES PLUNGING TOO QUICKLY TO BE CREDITED TO VACCINE ROLLOUT
Noted data scientist Youyang Gu recently said his COVID-19 models increasingly suggest that the U.S. will not achieve herd immunity in 2021.
He based that on high numbers of people who are still hesitant to get the vaccine, new variants of the coronavirus that may reduce the effectiveness of vaccines, and the delayed arrival of vaccines for children.
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Gu argued that the goal shouldn’t be achieving herd immunity but reducing “COVID-19 deaths & hospitalizations so that life can return to normal.”
