The bad news is that the United States appears to be on the cusp of another wave of coronavirus infections. The good news is that hospitalizations and deaths may be much lower this time around.
Daily confirmed cases had been dropping since January, when they reached a seven-day average of almost 260,000. By March 22, that had dropped to just over 54,300. Now, the seven-day average stands at 66,000, an increase of 21% in a little over a week.
While cases may continue to rise, it is not likely to result in the same number of hospitalizations and deaths as experienced in previous waves.
“I agree that the number of hospitalizations and deaths proportionate to the number of cases will be less for this wave because the demographics of the people getting sick will be different,” said Dr. Manoj Jain, an infectious disease physician at the Rollins School of Public Health.
The people most likely to be hospitalized and die from COVID-19 have been heavily targeted in the vaccination campaign.
About 80% of C0VID-19 deaths have occurred among those ages 65 and up. An estimated 174,000 deaths have occurred among nursing home staff and residents.
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Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that over 73% of those aged 65 and up have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and just over half have been fully vaccinated.
In nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, over 2.8 million staff and residents have been fully vaccinated. Since the vaccination campaign began in December, new COVID-19 cases have dropped 96% in nursing homes, while deaths have declined 91%, according to the industry group the American Health Care Association/National Center for Assisted Living.
But Jain warns that with the possibility of more young people, who tend to be less cautious, being exposed in this wave, the number of COVID-19 cases could rise greatly. A greater number of cases could result in hospitalizations and deaths that are still quite high.
Public health experts attribute the recent rise in COVID-19 cases to multiple causes.
“Definitely the variants of the virus spread across the U.S. is a big piece of it,” said Shandy Dearth, director of the undergraduate program in epidemiology at Indiana University’s Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health. “The variants are a lot more contagious, so that’s one issue.”
On Wednesday, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky warned that the United Kingdom variant, known as B.1.1.7, is becoming the predominant strain in the U.S. Thus far, 11,569 cases of the U.K. variant have been confirmed in the U.S., although that number is certainly low as the genetic tracing needed to identify variants is not widespread in the U.S. The U.K. variant is 40% to 70% more transmissible than the original virus, according to Imperial College London.
Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director at the American Public Health Association, points to some other possible causes.
“We’re now seeing more young people out and about, mask mandates are coming down, and states are reopening, possibly too fast,” Benjamin said.
According to the Delphi Group at Carnegie Mellon University, from mid-February to mid-March, the number of people wearing masks dropped slightly from 93 per 100 to 91.5. During the same period, traffic to bars increased 39% and to restaurants 20%. Data from Apple shows that the number of people driving and walking has increased since February.
One expert thinks impatience also is a factor.
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“It’s one of those things where the attention span, the tolerance of maintaining restrictions that are unpleasant and difficult, it’s just getting really old,” said Susan Hassig, an epidemiology professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. “It’s unfortunate because we know what’s going to happen when people [stop taking precautions].”
