Medicare spending expected to double in next decade, CBO says

Published February 11, 2026 10:29am ET



Medicare spending is projected to double over the next decade due to rising healthcare costs and increased enrollment, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office

The CBO estimated in its annual Budget and Economic Outlook that the federal healthcare program for seniors will cost $1.1 trillion in 2026 as more baby boomers reach age 65. But by 2036, CBO estimates, Medicare coverage will cost the federal government $2 trillion, or more than 4% of projected gross domestic product. 

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