Americans living in red states are most at risk of losing Obamacare subsidies under a pending Supreme Court decision. But they’re still disproportionally represented by Democrats.
Families USA, a leading proponent of President Obama’s healthcare law, released an analysis Tuesday of how many Americans could lose subsidies in a dozen southern states relying on healthcare.gov instead of running their own insurance marketplaces.
Democrats held one in four congressional districts in those states, but represented one in three residents who could lose subsidies.
The law’s challengers in the closely watched King v. Burwell case argue the Affordable Care Act allows the subsidies only in states running their own insurance marketplaces. If the court upholds the challenge, it could mean Americans in a majority of the states lose the subsidies.
Two of the states analyzed — Arkansas and West Virginia — have only Republicans in their congressional delegations. But in most of the other states, districts represented by Democrats had more subsidy recipients than GOP-represented districts.
That’s the case in both Mississippi and Louisiana, where each state’s lone Democrat represents the urban centers. An estimated 25,000 subsidy recipients live in Rep. Bennie Thompson’s Mississippi district, while Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond represents New Orleans, where 31,000 people are getting subsidies.
The two Missouri Democrats — Rep. Lacy Clay and Rep. Emanuel Cleaver — have more subsidy recipients in their districts than the six other Missouri Republicans except for Rep. Billy Long. It’s a similar story in Georgia, where only Republican Rod Woodall has more subsidy recipients in his district than three of the state’s four Democrats.
The data are sure to be scrutinized by Republicans as they grapple with whether to vote to temporarily extend the subsidies should the Supreme Court block them by upholding the King v. Burwell challenge.
The popular narrative has been that Republicans are feeling pressure to extend the subsidies because their constituents are more likely to lose out compared to Democrats.’ But the political calculations are more complicated than that. Many in the GOP fear that voting to extend the subsidies could make them vulnerable to a primary challenger on the Right.
And it’s questionable whether Republicans will feel enough pressure within their own districts, even in those with higher numbers of Obamacare enrollees. Subsidy recipients make up fewer than 5 percent of voters in most districts, with the exception of Florida.
The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision within the next two weeks, but Hill Republicans have reached no conclusions about how to respond, sources say. As each member makes his calculations, some may feel opposing Obamacare is a bigger priority while others may land on the side of preserving the subsidies for their constituents.
“I think for any member there’s always a balance between principle and practical impact of policy,” said GOP pollster Brock McCleary. “Any given member may provide a little more weight to one over another that helps them to reach their conclusion.”
And whatever Republicans decide, Democrats haven’t signaled willingness to accept any other changes to the healthcare law almost certain to be included in a GOP bill temporarily extending the subsidies.
