After weeks of social distancing, the country is entering a new phase of uncertainty about how to deal with the coronavirus.
Some states are beginning to reopen their economies while others are starting to face protests against the lockdowns they have put in place. But voters remain hesitant to see major changes, and both government officials and public health experts are trying to prevent a new upsurge in coronavirus cases.
Georgia is a microcosm of this uncertainty. Gov. Brian Kemp has defended his decision to reopen parts of his state’s economy as a balance between economic and public health concerns. When asked about Kemp’s decision at a press conference, President Trump replied, “I told the governor of Georgia Brian Kemp that I disagree strongly with his decision to open certain facilities.” Trump had previously encouraged the anti-lockdown protests in Democratic-run states.
“Americans are scared, but most realize this current mode of behavior is unsustainable,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Yes, polling indicates that a majority of Americans want to continue social distancing and other preventative measures, but the polls are lagging behind the reality on the ground. More than 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment. When you couple that with the sheer financial necessity, cabin fever, and general loneliness brewing beneath the surface, I expect to see greater numbers of people rebelling against the government-mandated status quo, both politically and physically, in the very near future.”
Some of those protests have taken place in Michigan, with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer responding by keeping her stay-at-home order in place but loosening some of the restrictions. “We will consider this the preliminary stage of economic reengagement,” she said at a Friday morning press conference. “We will measure, we will collect data, we will continue to ramp up testing and tracing, and we will make informed decisions in coming days about potential further reengagement.”
“While most people do rate her handling of the crisis positively, there is a growing sense of unrest due to a heightened sense of economic anxiety,” said Michigan-based Republican strategist Dennis Darnoi. “There is a great deal of concern among families about how they will manage financially not only in the short term but three to four months from now. Recent polling done by the Detroit Regional Chamber shows that people know that digging out of this economic hole will take a long time, but they question whether or not there are things that can be done in the short term to lessen the overall blow.”
Other parts of public life have also been disrupted by the quarantines. “There is going to be a push to classify churches as essential,” said Chad Connelly, head of the Faith Wins initiative to encourage political engagement among churchgoers. He added that church leaders were looking for safe and creative ways to resume some of their activities amid the coronavirus, such as drive-thru worship services.
Recent polling suggests Republicans are becoming more concerned about the economic disruption, but senior citizens, an important GOP voting bloc, want the government to prioritize controlling the virus.
Even public health experts differ on whether it is too soon to reopen the economy.
“I absolutely believe it is too early,” said Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director at the American Public Health Association. “And I think Georgia picked the wrong sectors to reopen. Barbershops and beauticians are predominantly minority. They are the population most at risk right now.”
Dr. Marissa Levine, a former state health commissioner in Virginia, said, “I give people a lot of credit to be adaptive and creative in how they respond to the virus.” Levine, who is now the director at the Center for Leadership in Public Health Practice at the University of South Florida, does worry that states may not have the necessary public health infrastructure.
Indeed, it is doubtful that the United States has adequate testing and contact tracing resources. “Contact tracing, with expanded testing (they go hand in hand), will be critical to making this work,” said Dr. Jennifer Kates, director of Global Health & HIV Policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation. “The challenge is that few jurisdictions have enough contact tracers to manage current cases, let alone further spread.”
Politico reported Tuesday that the U.S. may need between 100,000 to 300,000 contact tracing workers. At present, the U.S. has a fraction of that.
Additionally, such workers need to be trained. “You just can’t expect such people to have the skills overnight,” said Levine. “It takes some time to develop those skills.”
Another problem is that as people return to work, they will be competing with healthcare workers for protective equipment such as surgical masks and gloves.
“We are letting hospitals do elective surgeries, and those healthcare workers will need the same equipment as the emergency workers,” said Dr. Harry Heiman, a clinical associate professor at Georgia State University’s School of Public Health. “Then there is the craziness of opening barbershops, nail salons, and massage parlors that require close contact, so employees of those businesses will be competing with front-line healthcare workers for the same protective equipment.”
One risk of reopening economies is it may send a signal the general public that they can relax social distancing and attend social gatherings such as birthday parties, barbecues, and church services. These are the sort of activities that may be most likely to spread the virus.
“This is definitely a concern,” said Kates. “Relaxing measures has to be done in a slow and thoughtful way, with clear guidance to the public. To the extent that some people see this as a signal to resume large gatherings, the entire community risks exposure and an increase in new cases.”
Officials sending clear and consistent messages is also needed say the experts.
“There has been a lack of clear and consistent messaging coming from national leaders and in states like Georgia,” said Heiman. “When Gov. Kemp says that we are reopening barbershops and nail salons, and we are relying on citizens to use their good judgment, that’s a problem because the average citizen doesn’t have training or experience in managing a pandemic.”
Perhaps the biggest risk is reopening the economy only to see a reimposition of stay-at-home orders due to an increase in coronavirus cases.
“That would create more distrust in communities,” said Benjamin. “Once someone goes back to work, and gets his or her kid taken care of, the decision to reisolate is very problematic. Plus, it would likely be a patchwork, with officials saying that one group needs to stay home while a different group does not. And that will generate enormous dissent.”
W. James Antle III contributed to this report.
