Australia is currently battling a COVID-19 outbreak that may have been caused, in part, by the considerable success the country has had previously in stopping the coronavirus, one that shows the limits of its strict suppression strategy.
Australia registered nearly 4,000 COVID-19 cases in July, driven by the more infectious delta variant. In the six months prior, cases only totaled 2,000, according to data from Australia’s Department of Health.
On Thursday, the second-most populous city, Melbourne, entered a new lockdown, following the states of South Australia, Victoria, and part of New South Wales, including the capital city of Sydney. The country now faces the prospect of much lengthier lockdowns than the ones that have previously been imposed.
“It will be our primary method of controlling outbreaks until at least 80% of adults are fully vaccinated,” said Adrian Esterman, a professor of biostatistics and the University of South Australia.
COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATIONS AT RECORD HIGHS IN SEVERAL SOUTHERN STATES AMID DELTA SURGE
The Australian population is largely vulnerable to COVID-19. To date, only about 15% of the population is fully vaccinated, the result of a vaccination campaign that has been beset with problems. And only a tiny share of the population has acquired protection through infection, thanks to one of the best suppression efforts in the world.
The country has only seen about 35,000 confirmed cases. That’s about 140 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000. By comparison, the United States has 10,768 cases per 100,000, while the United Kingdom has 8,907.
“We have had a population with virtually no natural immunity or vaccine-induced immunity, which makes it easy for the virus to cause outbreaks,” said Raina MacIntyre, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of New South Wales.
Various policies contributed to Australia’s success. In March 2020, the nation instituted a two-week quarantine for all international arrivals, a policy it maintains to this day. It went into lockdown early in the pandemic, and state governments have continued to use short lockdowns to contain occasional outbreaks of the virus. It also has used a very effective test-and-trace system that has enabled officials to track down people exposed to the virus quickly.
However, the quarantine for international arrivals has leaks, resulting in cases of people infected with COVID-19 occasionally slipping through. That was less of a problem before the more contagious delta variant emerged, which has reduced the effectiveness of the test-and-trace system.
“The delta variant is much more contagious, and the contact tracers have found that by the time they identify contacts, 100% of household members are also infected (compared to about 30% last year),” said MacIntyre. “They report that the incubation period appears to be much shorter, and that makes it more difficult to control.”
The government of New South Wales relied heavily on its test-and-trace system.
“New South Wales has always resisted lockdowns and instead has relied on its superb contact tracing team,” said Esterman. “This has worked extremely well for previous outbreaks but has been a failure for the delta variant because of the variant’s incredibly fast transmission. It did eventually go into lockdown, but way too late, and nowhere near as strict as other places. As a result, it will probably have to stay in lockdown now well into September.”
New South Wales reported its worst day of the pandemic on Thursday, with a record 262 new cases.
The success at containing the virus may have also made government officials complacent in procuring sufficient doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
“We ordered vaccines very late,” said Esterman. “The thinking at the time was that since there wasn’t much COVID in Australia, there really wasn’t a hurry.”
The government didn’t order vaccines from Pfizer until November 2020, much later than many other nations. As a result, Australia will not have a sufficient supply of Pfizer vaccines until late in 2021.
Australia also ordered vaccines from the University of Melbourne, Novavax, and AstraZeneca. But the vaccine from the University of Melbourne proved unsuccessful, while the Novavax vaccine has been plagued by delays.
The vaccination campaign in Australia was also slowed when, in April, a link was discovered between the AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots.
“AstraZeneca was supposed to be the backbone of the Australian vaccine program,” said Dr. Nancy Baxter, an epidemiologist and head of the School of Population and Global Health at the University of Melbourne. “But then the risk of [blood clots] was identified and guidelines … changed to have age restrictions for AstraZeneca. Outside of areas where there are active outbreaks, AstraZeneca is only recommended for those age 60 and over.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
AstraZeneca is also a two-dose vaccine, and the two doses are supposed to be administered three months apart. Australia didn’t begin receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine until March. As a result, almost half of the 12 million doses in Australia are unused.
