On the eve of the $15 billion 2020 Census, used to draw congressional districts and carve up the federal funding pie, new warning signs are flashing about a “perfect storm” set to crash the population count.
Among them: the ongoing opioid crisis, scattering illegal immigrants, potential Russian hacking, insufficient funding and a leadership vacuum at the top of the U.S. Census Bureau.
“There is a confluence of unprecedented factors right now that could lead to the perfect storm in 2020 and for a good count,” warned Teri Ann Lowenthal, a former staff director on the House Census & Population Subcommittee at a Census conference this week.
She cited several issues threatening an accurate count including:
- “Insufficient, delayed, uncertain annual funding.”
- “Anti-immigrant rhetoric and stepped up federal law enforcement” that has “driven millions of people into the shadows.”
- Drug use and the opioid crisis “means people are less civically engaged.”
- “Last minute” questions on citizenship added by the Justice Department.
- Cyber crime and hacking, possibly by Russia. “Russia, I hope you’re not listening,” she said.
The federal government is expected to unveil its Census questions this month.
At the conference, sponsored by Georgetown University law school’s American Constitution Society student chapter and Georgetown Law Students for Democratic Reform, questions were also raised about the lack of a Senate confirmed director and deputy at Census.
Former Obama-era Census chief John H. Thompson raised questions about adequate funding, especially as it tests its system this year and readies the full digital campaign for 2020. “They’re going to need to be spending a lot of money.”
The Census is expected to cost $15.6 billion, or about $107 per person.
The conference, which included no panelist from the administration, also raised questions about minority communities being undercounted and the potential for politicization of the national count.
