The annual “growth” in U.S. immigration that was about 650,000 at the end of the Obama era has been slashed two-thirds by President Trump, a promise kept and confirmed by the Census Bureau.
In a new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies, the Census data also showed another shift under Trump — far more immigrants left the country than entered.
While changes in immigration are typically attributed to the U.S. economy, the center said a “Trump effect” was the cause.
“The slowdown in growth and net migration almost certainly reflects policy changes rather than a deterioration in the economy, as unemployment was low and job creation reasonably strong from 2017 to 2019,” said the report titled “‘Trump Effect’ likely explains slowdown.”
Immigration has been a focus of the president since he first announced his presidential bid in June 2015. As president, he has used legislation and executive orders to close the border to illegal immigrants and slow the flow of legal immigration, especially of those arriving to take jobs.
“Many commentators argue that immigration raises and falls with the economy largely outside the control of governmental policy,” said the Center’s Director of Research Steven Camarota. “The new numbers demonstrate otherwise. The economy was strong 2017 to 2019, yet policy changes seem to have significantly slowed the pace of immigration.”
Still, while immigration into the United States slowed significantly, it did not stop, and as a result, the immigration population hit a new high last year of 44.9 million.
In two key reports out today, he bulleted these highlights:
- In the first two years of the Trump administration (2017 to 2019), growth in the immigrant population (legal and illegal) averaged only about 200,000 a year, in contrast to 650,000 a year from 2010 to 2017.
- The level of net migration among immigrants — the difference between the number of immigrants coming vs. those leaving — averaged 525,000 a year between 2017 and 2019, compared to about 950,000 a year between 2010 and 2017.
- The change in net migration was caused mostly by a large increase in out-migration. Our analysis indicates that out-migration averaged 975,000 a year from 2017 to 2019 compared to about 470,000 in prior years.
- New arrivals also fell from a peak of 1.7 million in 2016 to 1.4 million in 2017 and 1.3 million in 2018. Data for the first part of 2019 indicate the number for 2019 is likely to be similar to 2017 and 2018.
- The slowdown in growth is entirely due to a decline in non-citizens in the country; the number of naturalized citizens continues to grow. This is an indication that illegal immigrants left or fewer arrived, primarily from Mexico.
- Although the pace of increase has slowed down, the nation’s immigrant population still hit a new record of 44.9 million in July 2019, an increase of 204,000 over 2018. The immigrant share of the population (13.7%) is the highest percentage in 109 years.
