Republicans will have an uphill battle securing the support they’ll need from Senate Democrats if they try to confront the White House on President Obama’s immigration executive action.
The GOP assumes the Senate majority in January for the first time in eight years. Having won control of the chamber in the midterm elections, they are vowing to use their expanded power to try and roll back Obama’s unilateral immigration action, which the GOP argues was an unconstitutional breach of executive authority.
“We’re considering a variety of options. But make no mistake. When the newly elected representatives of the people take their seats, they will act,” incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said Thursday in remarks on the Senate floor.
But it takes 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and pass a bill in the Senate. Based on the number of Senate Democrats who have voiced opposition to Obama’s action, Republicans are likely to come up one vote short under the best of circumstance any time they try and move legislation to address the issue.
The Republican majority to be seated in January stands at 53 seats. It could grow to 54 seats if GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy defeats Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in a December runoff in Louisiana. However, only four Senate Democrats and one independent who caucuses with the Democrats have come out against Obama’s executive action on immigration since he announced it Thursday evening.
The opposing Democrats include Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri; Joe Donnelly of Indiana; Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota; and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Sen. Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with the Democrats, joined them in opposing Obama’s action. Other Democrats who might also oppose Obama were not counted if they are not returning to Congress next year.
Even if Senate Republicans can count on the support of these five members every time they push legislation or call procedural votes related to undermining the president’s executive order, they will still be stuck at 59 votes, one short of defeating a filibuster. And, as Senate observers are aware, a senator being for or against a particular issue doesn’t always signal how he or she will vote on legislation or a parliamentary maneuver.
Indeed, an examination of the public statements issued by the five members of the Democratic caucus who opposed Obama’s executive immigration actions reveal members who appear to place equal blame for the controversy on House Republicans for refusing to consider a bipartisan comprehensive immigration bill that passed the Senate in June of 2013 — the so-called “gang of eight” bill.
“It is clear the immigration system in this country is broken, and only Congress has the ability to change the law to fix it. The Senate passed bipartisan immigration reform last summer with my support, though we are still waiting on the House to debate this issue,” Donnelly said in a statement. “I am as frustrated as anyone that Congress is not doing its job, but the President shouldn’t make such significant policy changes on his own.”
Plus, even if six Democrats do join with Republicans to oppose Obama, the president would surely veto the bill and send it back to a Congress that lacks the votes to override.
