The White House has been noticeably quiet as Republicans prepare a funding plan that would guarantee a fight over President Obama’s immigration action in early 2015.
That’s because Obama doesn’t think he’ll lose that showdown.
The president has declined to issue a veto threat as Republicans build support for a legislative package that would fund the federal government, except for the Department of Homeland Security, through the end of the fiscal year. The legislation would fund DHS just through February, when Republicans believe they would have more leverage to confront Obama on his executive action to spare up to 5 million undocumented immigrants from deportation.
Although the White House is pushing for the full funding of the government, those close to Obama privately suggest the president would likely sign the legislation, assuming the major components of the bill don’t change.
“Republicans still don’t have an endgame or any idea how they could conceivably roll back the president’s actions, and a solution isn’t going to magically appear in the next few months,” boasted a former senior administration official. “I think the president is comfortable getting almost everything he wants now since he doesn’t have a whole lot to lose by watching Republicans combust later.”
Such confidence is rooted in Republicans’ inability to explain exactly how they would craft a bill that keeps certain DHS activities funded and simultaneously halts the president’s executive action. And even some conservatives have accused House leadership of stalling in hopes of finding a more cohesive strategy.
The House is expected to unveil the funding blueprint next week.
Furthermore, Republicans would need to find 60 votes to get a spending bill through the upper chamber, meaning they would have to peel off Democratic support for the president’s executive action. Though some centrist Democrats have expressed reservations about the president’s unilateral move, they have not indicated that they would fall in line with those Republican efforts.
“It’s a work in progress,” conceded a House GOP leadership aide. “But it’s clear that this is the best option we have right now.”
Republicans know that politically, they cannot afford another government shutdown. To avoid alienating the base, they also can’t look complicit in Obama’s most expansive use of executive power to date.
Beyond that reasoning, there’s little conservative consensus on the next step after Obama signs the potential funding plan.
The House on Thursday approved a bill that would nullify Obama’s deferral of deportations. That legislation has no chance of passing the Democratically-led Senate, and the White House has indicated that Obama would veto the measure.
Both sides would agree that the bill was more about drawing battles lines ahead of 2015.
Despite the mostly symbolic nature of the vote, the White House scrambled to define the Republican actions as an attack on the Latino community, a narrative Obama aides will trumpet in coming months.
A senior administration official labeled the House vote on Thursday an attempt to “prioritize breaking up families.”
And Democrats would surely paint any efforts to defund DHS as detrimental to border security.
On a broader level, progressives argue it would be hard for Republicans to shake the “obstructionist” label, especially if they don’t pass legislative reforms of their own.
“If you want to nail somebody, trying to sell nuance isn’t an easy way to do it,” Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf said of Republicans narrowly targeting DHS funding. “I don’t think the public will follow exactly what they are doing.”
However, conservatives were quick to point out that Obama isn’t operating from a position of strength, either. Polls have repeatedly shown that a majority of Americans disapprove of the president going around Congress on immigration.
“It’s not like he can rally the public to his side,” said the House Republican leadership aide. “A government shutdown is off the table. We would avoid that landmine. It only benefits us to put more focus on something that voters already don’t like.”
