After the Supreme Court clipped the White House’s wings over a proposed vaccine mandate from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration for workers of large companies, the Biden administration mostly changed course on restrictive COVID-19 regulations.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention loosened up on masks on Feb. 25. Heavily locked-down states such as those on the West Coast and Hawaii gradually announced that they would follow suit. Their central city bureaucracies announced a gradual stand-down as well.
The significant outliers in the federal government’s looser COVID-19 approach are medical facilities, where the Supreme Court pointedly refused to stay a mandate, and public transportation.
As a result, citizens in formerly mandate-heavy states may find that they can now do many things they have only dreamed of doing for the past few years. They can go to the store, church, or a bar without masking up. Establishments are now taking down signs telling them they must furnish proof of vaccination to enter.
But to take the bus or subway home, catch the Amtrak to Delaware, or fly to Las Vegas, they will be asked to put those masks back on.
When is that likely to change, and what effect is it having on the bottom lines of airlines, buses, and passenger rail?
The federal mask mandate for public transportation runs through April 18, and there are some signs that may be the end of it.
“There is always the risk that the administration extends the mask mandate again if cases begin to rise significantly over the next couple of weeks, but betting markets and conventional wisdom in the industry is that the mandate is likely to end April 18,” Gary Leff, author of the View from the Wing travel website, told the Washington Examiner.
Leff pointed out that many airlines are lobbying for and banking on that outcome.
“The CEOs of most U.S. airlines sent a letter to the president asking for the mandate to be allowed to lapse,” Leff said.
He pointed to an event on March 29 at the Los Angeles International Airport. There, CEOs of “Delta and Los Angeles World Airports, along with LA Mayor Eric Garcetti, inaugurated a new facility for passengers at terminal 2/3 — and did so inside the airport maskless,” he said.
Leff added, “American Airlines has even told employees that they will begin alcohol sales in coach on April 18 — something they said they would not do until the mask mandate is lifted.”
He said he believes many airlines will be in decent shape in the future, masks or no masks.
“Airlines are recovering well,” Leff said. “Many will be profitable this year. American Airlines just had its three largest individual revenue days in company history in March. Planes are generally full and expected to be more so for summer.”
Transit will see a slower recovery, suggested Steven Polzin, a research professor of transportation at Arizona State University.
“The numbers have certainly been recovering somewhat, but [they are] still very depressed from pre-COVID times,” he told the Washington Examiner. “As of December 2021, overall transit ridership was approximately 43% of pre-COVID numbers, according to the latest available federal transit administration data.”
That number may slightly undersell the recovery, Polzin said.
“On a rolling calendar year basis, ridership remains about 50% below pre-COVID numbers,” he said before breaking transit trends down further.
“Bus tended to be less impacted by COVID and recovered somewhat faster as it tends to cater to urban trips and has a larger share of folks who do not have alternatives,” Polzin said. “Rail and particularly commuter rail and long-distance rail lines targeting white-collar commuters remain most impacted.”
Right now, that doesn’t matter financially because transit systems are awash in cash from the latest transportation bill.
But broader trends will matter eventually, particularly when it comes to funding future light-rail expansions.
“The transportation planning community, among others, is anxiously watching to see what share of the workforce returns to the office to work as we move past COVID,” Polzin said. “It’s likely that something like 5-10% of the total pre-COVID workforce won’t be returning to office places” on an average weekday.
He also argued that many of those who return may choose to do so through other means than public transit.
“I have cautioned industry folks that the sensitivity to urban crime is a huge issue for transit’s recovery as travelers with choices are very reluctant to return to transit given the number and attention being paid to crime,” Polzin said. “Urban roadway commuting congestion to downtowns has not returned to normal, nor has parking availability, making driving more competitive.”
