‘GREATEST COUNTEROFFENSIVE SINCE WORLD WAR II’: Military experts are gushing over Ukraine’s stunning military advances over the past 72 hours, which broke through Russian lines in the Kharkiv region, reclaimed more than 1,200 square miles of occupied territory, and forced hundreds of humiliated Russian troops to retreat in disarray, abandoning their equipment and running for their lives. “They just dropped rifles on the ground,” one villager told the Washington Post.
“Ukraine has launched the greatest counteroffensive since World War II,” said urban war expert John Spencer on Twitter. “Look what they have done. They have achieved the unachievable.”
“We have to win. And this counteroffensive shows that we can win,” said Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, on CBS. “We don’t have any other choice. We will advance. As we said before, we will not surrender. And we will liberate all Ukraine because this is what we have to do, not only to restore our territory integrity, but to save all of our people who are under occupation.”
Videos posted on social media showed grateful Ukrainian’s kissing their liberators, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked his forces and warned there would be more tough fighting ahead. “You know better than anyone else: there is little romance in war and a lot of hard work,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address. “The path to victory is a difficult one, but we are sure: you are capable of it … Today, everyone sees and notes your actions in the north, south and east of Ukraine. The world is impressed.”
Meanwhile on Russian media, critics were arguing about who was responsible for the debacle and debating what Russian President Vladimir Putin should do next.
‘A MAJOR OPERATIONAL DEFEAT’: The momentum of Ukrainian forces grew over several days, beginning with the capture of the town of Balakliia, and then moving east to take the strategic rail hub and Kupiansk, which cut off supply lines and isolated Russian forces around Izyum to the south. That forced Russia to announce a “tactical regrouping” of its forces to the Donetsk region in the south. As of this morning, Ukrainian commanders claimed to have pushed enemy forces back to the Russian border in the north.
“Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive,” said the latest campaign assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. “The Ukrainian success resulted from skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS.”
The key takeaways listed by the ISW:
- Ukrainian recapture of Izyum ended the prospect that Russia could accomplish its stated objectives in Donetsk.
- The loss of Izyum dooms the initial Russian campaign plan for this phase of the war.
- Ukrainian pressure in Kherson combined with the rapid counter-offensive in Kharkiv presents the Russians with a terrible dilemma.
- While Ukraine has turned the tide of this war in its favor, The current counter-offensive will not end the war.
“Ukraine will have to launch subsequent counter-offensive operations, likely several, to finish the liberation of Russian-occupied territory. The war remains likely to stretch into 2023,” the ISW concludes. “Kyiv will likely increasingly dictate the location and nature of the major fighting, and Russia will find itself increasingly responding inadequately to growing Ukrainian physical and psychological pressure in successive military campaigns unless Moscow finds some way to regain the initiative.”
RUSSIA ‘STRUGGLING’ IN SOUTH: Meanwhile, while the gains have not been as dramatic, Ukraine is making progress in its efforts to isolate Russian forces west of the Dnipro river in Kherson province, according to British intelligence.
“Russia is likely struggling to bring sufficient reserves forward across the Dnipro River to the front line,” the British Defense Ministry said in its daily Twitter update. “An improvised floating bridge Russia started over two weeks ago remains incomplete; Ukrainian long-range artillery is now probably hitting crossings of the Dnipro so frequently that Russia cannot carry out repairs to damaged road bridges.”
Both sides in the south spend a lot of time building temporary pontoon bridges, which tend to last less than a day. “We build them, they blow them up,” Ukrainian Col. Roman Kostenko told the New York Times. “They build them, we blow them up.”
“Building bridges and destroying the enemy’s, however unglamorous, low-tech and old-school as a military art, has nonetheless become a central tool for both sides in Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south,” the Times dispatch from the front reported.
UKRAINIAN FORCES RETAKE KEY MILITARY STRONGHOLD AFTER FIVE MONTHS OF RUSSIAN OCCUPATION
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HAPPENING THIS WEEK: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in person this week in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, at a scheduled meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Xi and Putin spoke by phone in mid-June but this will be their first face-to-face meeting since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it comes as Putin’s military forces have suffered embarrassing setbacks in the past week, and the Pentagon said Moscow was seeking missiles and rockets from North Korea to replenish its dwindling ammunition stocks.
In a readout of the June call, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that “practical cooperation has developed steadily” between Russia and China.
Xi also said in the call that China is “willing to, together with Russia, continue to support each other on issues concerning core interests and major concerns such as sovereignty and security, intensify strategic coordination between the two countries, and strengthen communication and coordination in major international and regional organizations.”
XI AND PUTIN TO MEET IN PERSON
RESTOCKING THE PENTAGON: In order to get as much weaponry to Ukraine as fast as possible, the Pentagon has been raiding its own stocks instead of buying new weapons and ammunition to send overseas.
So far, some $12.5 billion worth of military equipment, including Javelin and Stinger missiles, HIMARS rocket launcher systems, and Switchblade “kamikaze” drones have been pulled directly from existing U.S. military inventory.
On Friday, the Pentagon announced an ambitious plan to speed up production of replacement weapons to replenish the U.S. arsenal. “As we work with industry to accelerate production on both replenishment systems and direct procurements under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative,” said Bill LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, at a Pentagon briefing.
The Pentagon is using “a number of tools” to cut the red tape usually involved in procurement, said LaPlante. “These include using contracting mechanisms called ‘undefinitized contracting actions,’ sometimes called UCAs. What that allows you to do deliberately is to get industry working on initial contract before we definitize it. And you can put a UCA together within a week, and we’re doing that.”
LaPlante said about $1.2 billion in contracts are already underway, including about $352 million in funding for replacement Javelin missiles, $624 million for replacement Stinger missiles, and $33 million for replacement HIMARS systems.
BIDEN ON 9/11: ‘WE WILL NOT REST. WE’LL NEVER FORGET.’: At a ceremony at the Pentagon Sunday marking the 21st anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, President Joe Biden vowed that the fight against terrorism will continue, even as U.S. troops have left Afghanistan.
“Through all that has changed over the last 21 years, the enduring resolve of the American people to defend ourselves against those who seek us harm, and to deliver justice to those responsible for attacks against our people, has never once faltered,” Biden said. “Our commitment to preventing another attack on the United States is without end.”
“Our intelligence and defense and counterterrorism professionals in the building behind me and across the government continue their vigilance against terrorist threats that has evolved and spread to new regions of the world,” he said. “We’ll continue to monitor and disrupt those terrorist activities wherever we find them, wherever they exist. And we’ll never hesitate to do what’s necessary to defend the American people.”
The Sept. 11 attackers underestimated the will of the American people, said Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley at the ceremony. “The terrorists believed that they could destroy us, destroy our values, the values that bind this nation. And they were wrong.”
BIDEN QUOTES LATE QUEEN IN SOMBER REMARKS AT PENTAGON 9/11 MEMORIAL
NEW PENTAGON PUBLIC AFFAIRS CHIEF: On Friday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin appointed Chris Meagher assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs.
“Chris will oversee the department’s media relations and public outreach efforts and serve as my senior adviser on public affairs and strategic communications,” Austin said in a statement. “He comes to the Pentagon from the White House, where he has most recently been serving as a deputy press secretary to President Biden.”
Meagher has advised members of Congress, as well as national and state leaders on strategic communications and press relations, according to the Pentagon, and also served as a senior public affairs official for Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian forces retake key military stronghold after five months of Russian occupation
Washington Examiner: Biden quotes late queen in somber remarks at Pentagon 9/11 memorial
Washington Examiner: Fund for 9/11 first responders’ healthcare to dry up
Washington Examiner: Special master order throws intelligence briefing to Congress into doubt
Washington Examiner: Navy tells watchdog site releasing all UFO videos would ‘harm national security’
Washington Examiner: Investigation launched into West Texas border patrol retweets of Stephen Miller
Washington Examiner: GOP congressman presents Jan. 6 rioter with flag flown over Capitol
New York Times: Stunned Moscow Admits To Losing Most of Kharkiv
AP: Ukraine keeps initiative, claims it reached Russian border
Breaking Defense: As Ukraine Counterattacks, Russia’s Military Facing Steep Artillery, Resupply Challenges
New York Times: The Latest Irritant Buzzing Taiwan’s Defenses? Chinese Drones.
South China Morning Post: Unmanned Surface Vessels: The Next Frontier In China-U.S. Military Rivalry?
Reuters: Biden To Hit China With Broader Curbs On U.S. Chip And Tool Exports
Yonhap News Agency: N. Korean Leader Vows To Keep Nukes; New Law Authorizes ‘Automatic Nuclear Strike’
Air Force Magazine: Pentagon Acquisition Czar ‘Hoping’ F-35 Deliveries Will Resume Soon
Inside Defense: Navy Eyes Stingray For Future Carrier-Based Unmanned Aviation
Breaking Defense: Saudi Naval Modernization Pushes Ahead, With Eye Always On Iran
Air Force Magazine: CMSAF Wants Military Compensation Review of How to Calculate BAH, Other Allowances
New York Times: Navy Orders High-Level Outside Investigation Of SEAL Course
Marine Corps Times: Grit & Drive: The Story Of The Marine Corps’ 1st Black 4-Star General
Air Force Magazine: Four Space Force Generals Nominated for Second Star
19fortyfive.com: Rumors Are Swirling That Iran’s Khamenei Is Near Death. Time To Pause Nuke Negotiations
19fortyfive.com’: Ukraine’s Blitzkrieg Means Russia Cannot Win the War
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine’s New War Goal: Take Back Crimea from Russia?
Calendar
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 12
9 a.m. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies releases policy paper: “Decades of Air Force Underfunding Threaten America’s Ability to Win,” with authors retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute, and Mark Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute; and retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/policy-paper-release
9 a.m. 1100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, Maryland — National Aeronautics and Space Administration media day event focusing on the technology enabling the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft to autonomously navigate to and impact its target asteroid.
https://socialforms.nasa.gov/DART-Pre-Impact-Press-Briefing
10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Henry L. Stimson Center discussion: “Recalibrating US Extended Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula,” with Jon Wolfsthal, senior adviser at Global Zero; and Jenny Town, senior fellow at the Stimson Center and director of the Stimson Center’s 38 North Program https://www.stimson.org/event/recalibrating-us-extended-deterrence
10:30 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security and Cyber Media Forum conversation with Eric Schmidt and Robert Work, co-chairs of the Special Competitive Studies Project, on their final report on AI and National Security https://docs.google.com/forms
11:30 a.m. 957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: on “Kabul One Year Later.” https://calendar.gwu.edu/kabul-one-year-later
4 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace book discussion on Surveillance State: Inside China’s Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control, with co-author Josh Chin; deputy bureau chief in China for the Wall Street Journal; and co-author Liza Lin, China correspondent for the Wall Street Journal https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/12/book-launch
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 13
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Lt. Gen. Bradley C. Saltzman, to be promoted to general and Chief of Space Operations https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nomination
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Technology, Innovation, and Defending America,” with Michael Brown, director, DOD’s Defense Innovation Unit https://www.hudson.org/events/2147-technology-innovation
12:30 p.m. — New America and Arizona State University annual Future Security Forum, with Jen Easterly, director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Joshua Geltzer, deputy assistant to the president and deputy homeland security adviser, National Security Council; Maj. Gen. Steven Edwards, incoming commander, Special Operations Command Europe; CMC Pete Musselman, senior enlisted leader, Special Operations Command Europe; and retired Maj. Gen. Michael Repass, NATO strategic adviser for special operations, Ukraine, former deputy commander of Special Operations Command Europe and former commanding general, U.S. Army Special Forces Command https://events.newamerica.org/futuresecurityforum2022
1 p.m. — American University’s School of International Service virtual discussion: “Taiwan, China, and the U.S. in the Wake of Speaker Pelosi’s Visit,” with Jessica Drun, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub; Ryan Hass, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia Program; James Lin, assistant professor at the University of Washington; and Joseph Torigan, professor at AU’s School of International Service https://www.eventbrite.com/e/taiwan-china-and-the-us
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Securing the Air Force: A Dispatch from DAFITC (Department of the Air Force Information Technology and Cyberpower)” with Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategy, Integration and Requirements Lt. Gen. Clint Hinote https://events.govexec.com/securing-air-force
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 14
8 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “The Ukraine War: Lessons for Taiwan,” with Taiwan Parliament member Freddy Lim; Anna Fotyga, member of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group; Lai I-Chung, president of the Prospect Foundation; and Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies https://www.gmfus.org/event/ukraine-war-lessons-taiwan
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual event: “State of Defense: Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday https://d1stateofdefense.com/
1 p.m. — Federal News Network virtual 2022 Cloud Exchange forum: “National security and law enforcement,” with Nick Ward, CIO of the Drug Enforcement Administration; and James Wolff, CIO of the National Nuclear Security Administration, delivers keynote remarks https://federalnewsnetwork.com/cme-event/federal-insights
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council discussion with the families of flight PS752 victims, shot down by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards on a January 8, 2020 flight from Tehran to Kyiv, Ukraine with Amirali Alavi, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Legal Committee; Kourosh Doustshenas, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Government and Stakeholder Relations Committee; Navaz Ebrahim, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Public Relations Committee; Hamed Esmaeilion, president and spokesperson of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s; Javad Soleimani, chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Fact-Finding Committee; Alborz Sadeghi, member of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Legal Committee; and Haydee Dijkstal, barrister at 33 Bedford Row RSVP at [email protected]
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 15
8 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The U.S.-Australia Alliance on the Anniversary of AUKUS,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis.; Andrew Hastie, member of the Parliament of Australia; Brian Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2145-the-us-australia-alliance
9 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “My ‘Hell’ in Russian Captivity,” with Yuliia Paievska, Ukrainian veteran and volunteer paramedic; and Hanna Hopko, co-founder of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory and former Ukraine Parliament chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs https://www.youtube.com/HelsinkiCommission
10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Air Force Gen. Anthony J. Cotton to be commander, U.S. Strategic Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. National Harbor, Maryland — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance 2022 Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Jeanette McMillan, assistant director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center’s Supply Chain and Cyber Directorate; Halimah Najieb-Locke, deputy assistant Defense secretary for industrial base resilience; Principal Deputy Defense CIO Kelly Fletcher; Central Intelligence Agency CTO Nand Mulchandani; Margie Palmieri, deputy chief digital and AI officer at the Defense Department Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office; Lori Wade, intelligence community chief data officer and assistant director of national intelligence for data and partnership interoperability in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Greg Ryckman, deputy director for global integration at the Defense Intelligence Agency; Brig. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, director of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance at the Space Force; Leonel Garciga, director of information management at the Army; Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback, deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations at the Air Force; Coast Guard Assistant Commandant For Intelligence Rear Adm. Rebecca Ore; Maj. Gen. William Seely, intelligence director at the Marine Corps; and Vice Adm. Jeff Trussler, deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare https://intelsummit.org/#
11 a.m. — Middle East Institute online event: “Beyond Post-Desert Storm: The Future of the U.S.-Kuwait Security Partnership,” with Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security; retired Army Gen. Michael Garrett, former commanding general of U.S. Army Forces Command; and Bilal Saab, MEI senior fellow and director of the Defense and Security Program https://www.mei.edu/events/beyond-post-desert-storm
12 p.m. — New America virtual discussion: “Leaving Afghanistan,” with Humaira Rahbin, Afghanistan observatory scholar at New America; Mir Abdullah Miri, Afghanistan observatory scholar at New America; Vanessa Gezari, national security editor at the Intercept; and Candace Rondeaux, director of New America’s Future Frontlines https://www.newamerica.org/international-security
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What next for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?” with Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association; Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at the University of Tehran; and Azadeh Zamirirad, deputy head of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs’ Africa and Middle East Division https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-next
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 16
10:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Americans held hostage abroad,” with Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Russia in the Arctic,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Doug Jones; Principal Defense Department Director for the Arctic and Global Resilience Greg Pollock; former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands; Rebecca Pincus, assistant professor at the U.S. Naval War College; Katarzyna Zysk, professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies; and Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at CNAS https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-russia-in-the-arctic
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We have to win. And this counteroffensive shows that we can win. … We don’t have any other choice. We will advance. As we said before, we will not surrender.”
Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation.
