TRUMP, TRUDEAU MEET: President Trump continues his meetings with key U.S. allies, hosting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau today at the White House. The youthful Trudeau is known as a “liberal superhero” who favors free trade, and has publicly welcomed thousands of Syrian refugees, at one point saying Canada would take in anyone turned back by Trump’s now-suspended travel ban.
Canadians are worried Trump might treat Trudeau to the kind of roughing up he gave Australia’s PM Malcolm Turnbull in a contentious phone call last month. Canada, like Australia, is one of America’s most reliable military allies. But in his joint appearances with both Japan’s Shinzo Abe last week and Britain’s Theresa May last month, Trump was on his best behavior, expressing unwavering support for both partners. The talks between Trump and Trudeau are expected to primarily focus on trade, specifically NAFTA, but Trudeau has also expressed doubts about buying Lockheed Martin F-35s for its air force, and has ordered 18 F/A-18 Super Hornets from Boeing as a stop-gap measure. Maybe Trump will mention again how the price is dropping for the expensive 5th generation fighter plane to under $100 million, thanks in part to his personal intervention.
FLYNN’S FATE: It’s the classic Washington morality tale, in which it’s the coverup, not that crime that can do you in. Critics of National Security Adviser Mike Flynn are smelling blood in the water following an admission that he may have discussed the lifting of Russian sanctions with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. On Friday, several Democratic lawmakers called for Flynn to be investigated, or even fired, if the allegations turn out to be true.
But it’s not so much about whether he mentioned sanctions in passing as he was discussing logistical arrangements for Trump to speak by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin this morning denied sanctions were discussed in any context. What really has Flynn in hot water is the possibility he wasn’t entirely truthful or forthcoming about the conversations, and in particular may have misled Vice President Mike Pence, who then went on “Face the Nation” and flatly denied the allegations. “Well, you know, I mean, either he was lying about not having discussed that or he forgot,” said Sen. Al Franken on CNN yesterday. “I don’t think you want a guy who would forget that.”
Flynn seemed to be left twisting in the wind by White House senior policy adviser Stephen Miller, who made the rounds of all the Sunday morning shows, but had nothing to say about Flynn’s fate. “That’s a great question for our chief of staff, that’s a great question for the office of the vice president,” Miller said on ABC. “There’s no information that I have, as a policy director for this White House, to contribute any new information to this story this morning.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
On Saturday, Politico reported that the CIA refused to grant a security clearance to Flynn aide Robin Townley, viewed as payback for Flynn’s disparaging view of the intelligence community. And as of Sunday night, the Wall Street Journal was reporting that Flynn’s place in the administration is becoming increasingly tenuous. “Close Trump adviser Steve Bannon had dinner with Mr. Flynn over the weekend, according to another senior administration official, and Mr. Bannon’s view is to keep him in the position but ‘be ready’ to let him go, the first administration official said.”
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MATTIS’ NEXT MOVE: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, fresh from what was seen as a fruitful diplomatic foray in Asia, turns his attention to European and NATO allies this week. On Tuesday, Mattis departs for Brussels on his second overseas trip as the Pentagon’s top civilian. Mattis will be discussing ways to step up the pace of the anti-ISIS fight, as well as the possibility of sending more trainers to Afghanistan to increase the combat effectiveness of Afghan security forces, who are now in a “stalemate” with the Taliban, according to the top U.S. commander there. Following the NATO defense ministerial, Mattis travels to Germany for next weekend’s Munich Conference on Security Policy, the premier gathering of defense and national security officials in Europe. Conference organizers said Pence has also confirmed he will attend. Traditionally the U.S. defense secretary give a speech on Saturday.
NO HIPP REPLACEMENT: A potential candidate to be Trump’s Army secretary dropped out of the running on Friday. Van Hipp, a top defense lobbyist and former military officer, thanked Trump but said he was not interested in the job. “In recent days, my name has been raised publicly as a potential nominee for Secretary of the Army. I support President Trump and his leadership 100 percent, but unfortunately the timing would not be right for my family and me due to personal and professional commitments,” Hipp said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
GUARDSMAN SENTENCED: A former member of the Army National Guard was sentenced to 11 years in prison after meeting members of the Islamic State in Africa and plotting an attack in the U.S., according to the Justice Department. Mohamed Bailor Jalloh wanted to attack a military installation, in the style of the Chattanooga and Fort Hood shootings, according to the Justice Department. He had served in the Virginia Army National Guard but “decided not to re-enlist after listening to online lectures by Anwar al-Awlaki,” the U.S. citizen who was killed in a drone strike after emerging as al Qaeda’s top propagandist.
NO HARM, NO FOUL: The Pentagon seems ready to give Beijing a pass on last week’s close encounter between a Chinese plane and U.S. Navy P-3 Orion that came within about 1,000 feet of each other over the South China Sea. The Chinese plane essentially cut off the American plane, the way a driver on the Washington beltway might if he missed his exit, and changed lanes at the last minute. Friday a spokesman insisted there’s nothing to suggest the incident was intentional. “Clearly we have our differences with China over militarization of the South China Sea, over their reclamation of the islands and some of their broader strategic objectives, but when it comes to simply the interactions, those are largely professional and safe,” Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis said.
ON THE OTHER HAND: A report out this morning suggests the Trump administration may be ready to take a more “in your face” approach to asserting freedom of navigation rights in the South China Sea. Navy Times is quoting three defense officials as saying the Navy has drawn up plans for a more robust demonstration, which would send ships from the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group within 12 nautical miles of China’s man-made islands in the Spratly and or the Paracel islands. “The plans are heading up the chain of command for approval by President Donald Trump,” the report says. The Obama administration was criticized for timid, low profile missions that tried to sail ships through the area, in a low key approach that appeared aimed at not angering the Chinese.
ANOTHER N. KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH: The U.S., Japan and South Korea have jointly requested an urgent meeting at the U.N. today over North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch. North’s Korean Central News Agency said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally gave the launch from an observation post. The missile was described as a “Pukguksong-2,” which the report said was a “Korean-style new type strategic weapon system.” According to the AP, North Korea claimed the test proved “the reliability and security” of a new mobile launching system, the solid fuel that was used and the guidance and control features of the ballistic missile.
Trump had a one-sentence reaction Saturday night to the launch, which sent the missile into international waters in the Sea of Japan. Standing alongside Abe, Trump said, “I just want everybody to understand and fully know that the United States of America stands behind Japan, its great ally, 100 percent.” Abe has just said through a translator that the missile launch was “absolutely intolerable,” adding “North Korea must fully comply with the relevant UN Security Council resolutions.”
IRAN OPTIONS: Trump’s push to put Iran “on notice” portends a sprawling, complicated struggle with a country whose leaders have already begun to test the tolerance of the new administration, Sarah Westwood writes. Trump has already signaled his willingness to consider military action against Iran, and tensions that had simmered below the surface during the previous administration could quickly escalate from a war of words to an actual conflict.
“We let them out of the box, we gave them a ton of resources … in order to preserve the Iran deal and avoid confronting the Iranians, the Obama administration looked the other way as they basically conquered Iraq, Syria and Lebanon,” a veteran Iran expert who declined to be named told the Washington Examiner.
WINNING? Trump has promised troops deployed to Afghanistan that the U.S. will win in the conflict that has stretched on for more than 15 years, but experts say keeping that promise will require more than just a military strategy, including negotiating with Pakistan and building up an Afghan military to defend itself. Last week, the commander of U.S. troops in Afghanistan complained in Senate testimony that Pakistan talks a good game, but then doesn’t follow through. “I will say that the Pakistan leadership has articulated that they support our objective of a stable and peaceful Afghanistan,” said Gen. John “Mick” Nicholson Thursday. “All of their leaders have said they are committed to this, but thus far we have not seen this translate into any change in terms of behavior,” he said.
BERGDAHL’S HAIL MARY: In a military court in Fort Bragg today, lawyers for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl are pressing their argument that Trump’s repeating characterization of Bergdahl as a ”dirty rotten traitor” when Trump was a candidate has made it impossible for Bergdahl to get a fair trial, under the doctrine of “unlawful command influence.” Bergdahl’s attorneys are asking for the charges of desertion and misbehavior before the enemy to be dropped, but legal experts say that’s unlikely. Bergdahl walked away from his post in Afghanistan in 2009, and was captured and held prisoner by the Taliban until President Obama arranged a swap for five Taliban detainees at Guantanamo.
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: Turmoil at the National Security Council, From the Top Down
AP: Trump moves spark Iraqi anger, calls against future alliance
Defense One: Will Trump Repeal Sanctions on Russia? A Conversation with an NSC Planner
Military Times: Before there’s another surge in Afghanistan, Mattis and his general need to meet
Military.com: Spare Parts Shortage Grounds Many Marine Corps Aircraft
Defense News: Israeli F-35 buy-back surpasses $1 billion
Military Times: I’m a refugee and a naval officer. The immigration ban hurts my family
UPI: Canada taps General Dynamics for armored vehicle upgrades
Washington Post: Rachid Kassim, ISIS recruiter and failed rapper, targeted in U.S. airstrike
Calendar
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13
10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. H.E. Khaled Alyemany, the United Nations permanent representative of Yemen, speaks about challenges to the Yemeni peace process. atlanticcouncil.org
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14
9:30 a.m. Senate Visitors Center 217. Bob Work, the deputy defense secretary, testifies at a closed Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on long-term defense challenges. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. A panel of experts testifies at the House Armed Services Committee about the evolving threat of terrorism and strategies to counter it. armedservices.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Think tank experts testify on the path forward to defeat terrorism in Syria. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Russell 222. The top enlisted service members in all four branches testify about family readiness programs at a hearing in the Senate Armed Services personnel subcommittee. armed-services.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of analysts talks about challenges and opportunities in the U.S.-Iraqi relationship. wilsoncenter.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Eliot Cohen, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, discusses his new book on the limits of soft power. heritage.org
5:30 p.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. Robert Kaplan, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, speaks at a launch event for his new book about how geography shapes America’s role in the world. cnas.org
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16
9 a.m. Rayburn 2212. Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan provides the House Armed Services Committee an update on the F-35 program. armedservices.house.gov
4:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a debate on European missile defense for NATO. csis.org
