HERE’S THE SKINNY ON THE “SKINNY” BUDGET: Just out this morning, President Trump’s budget blueprint known as the “skinny budget,” because it’s more of an outline of the administration’s destination, rather than a detailed roadmap of how to get there. The roughly $1.1 trillion in spending, called discretionary spending, represents everything the government does outside of servicing the federal debt and funding entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
THE BUMPER STICKERS: “You had an America-first candidate, you have an America-first budget,” said OMB Director Mick Mulvaney in a call with reporters. “This is a hard power budget,” he said. “It is not a soft power budget.”
WHAT IT DOES: The big idea for the Trump fiscal 2018 spending plan is to boost spending by $54 billion on defense, homeland security and veterans affairs, while cutting the same amount from domestic programs. The budget is to be deficit-neutral, neither increasing nor cutting the national debt.
WHAT IT DOESN’T DO: The budget does not include tax or revenue proposals, nor does it get into specifics on programs or numbers.
WHO WINS: The Pentagon, obviously. The Defense Department is the primary beneficiary of the Trump budget plan, getting $52.3 billion of the $54 billion increase. The department would get $639 billion: $574 billion in base funding and $65 billion for overseas contingency operations. The Department of Homeland Security gets $2.8 billion more to fund the president’s border wall, and to hire 1,500 more border patrol and customs enforcement personnel. But even though defense is the big winner, many Republicans argue the defense topline is inadequate to rebuild a military that is in serious decline after years of sequestration.
WHO LOSES: The biggest cuts would be felt by the State Department, down $10.9 billion, 28 percent; the EPA, down $2.6 billion, 31 percent; HHS, down $15.1 billion,18 percent; Army Corps of Engineers, down $1 billion, 16 percent; while funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, National Endowment for the Humanities and National Endowment for the Arts would be zeroed out entirely.
WILL IT HAPPEN? Not likely. Not without major changes. Republicans who control Congress, (but still need votes from Democrats to get things done) have major problems with some of the Trump proposals, and many have already declared the proposals “dead on arrival” on Capitol Hill. And Democrats, who typically will not support a defense boost without a comparable increase for non-defense, will not accept a defense plus-up that is paid for by cuts to domestic spending, meaning the proposal as written has no hope of passing the Senate. “The administration’s budget isn’t going to be the budget,” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio noted acerbically. “We do the budget here. The administration makes recommendations, but Congress does budgets.”
WHAT ABOUT NOW? The “skinny budget” is all about next fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1, but the administration is also expected to roll out a supplemental request for this fiscal year, which is half over. The White House is expected to ask for $30 billion to address immediate needs to shore up the combat readiness of military units, as well as $1.5 billion to begin work on the president’s pet project, the wall along the U.S. southern border with Mexico. The Pentagon is planning an off-camera, on-the-record briefing at 3 p.m. today to provide details on the fiscal year 2017 budget amendment. John Roth, performing the duties of undersecretary of defense comptroller, and Army Lt. Gen. Anthony Ierardi, director, Force Structure, Resources and Assessment, will do the explaining
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is in Tokyo today, first stop on his three-nation Asia tour. He met with his Japanese counterpart Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, and in a news conference called for a “new approach” in dealing with North Korea. “We have 20 years of failed approach that includes a period where the United States has provided $1.35 billion in assistance to North Korea as an encouragement to take a different pathway,” Tillerson said. “It is clear that a different approach is required.”
But Tillerson gave no hint of how the Trump administration will handle things differently, saying that’s why he’s talking and listening on his trip. “Part of the purpose of my visit to the region is to exchange views on a new approach,” he said. Tillerson’s next stop is Seoul, South Korea, and then China before returning to Washington Sunday.
NOT HAPPENING TODAY: Trump’s revised travel ban affecting six countries from the Middle East and North Africa was supposed to begin today, but was blocked by another federal court at the 11th hour.
Trump, speaking at a rally in Nashville last night, condemned the federal judge in Hawaii for what he called “unprecedented judicial overreach.” The judge, Derrick Watson, ruled Hawaii was likely to succeed in its legal argument that the president’s executive order violates First Amendment protections against religious discrimination.
“The order he blocked was a watered-down version of the first order that was also blocked by another judge that should have never been blocked to start with,” Trump told the crowd last night. “We going to fight this terrible ruling. We are going to take our case as far as it needs to go, including all the way up to the Supreme Court, and let me tell you something, I think we should go back to the first one and go all the way, which is what I want to do in the first place.”
RAQQA PLANS PROCEED WITHOUT TURKEY: The U.S. says it’s still in discussions with NATO ally Turkey about what role it might play in the liberation of Raqqa, the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed capital in Syria. But the the talks are producing no agreement, and meanwhile the U.S. military is moving apace to launch the offensive working with Syrian Kurds and Arab forces over the vigorous objection of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan is furious that members of the Kurdish YPG, considered terrorist by Ankara, are to be included in the liberation force. When asked about the Turkish objections, the chief U.S. military spokesman in Iraq Col. John Dorrian said dryly, “I think I’d like to leave it at we would expect Kurds to be involved. And that’s probably about where we’re at.”
PENTAGON DOWNPLAYS “1,000 TROOPS TO SYRIA” Pentagon officials are throwing cold water on a report suggesting it is “likely” the U.S. will deploy up to 1,000 more troops into northern Syria in the coming weeks to support the Raqqa offensive. The Washington Post report came with a lot of caveats, noting it had not been approved Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and that a final decision “relies on a number of variables” including “how much to arm Kurdish and Arab troops on the ground, and what part regional actors, such as Turkey, might have in the Raqqa campaign.” A senior Pentagon official told us the Post report was not accurate. “The assertions and inferences indicated in this article are false. Nothing of the sort is in the process being executed in the near future or coming weeks,” the official said.
SYRIAN CIVIL WAR BEGINS YEAR 7: It’s not a happy anniversary, but was noted in Senate resolution yesterday. On the sixth anniversary of the start of the Syrian civil war, Sens. John McCain, Tim Kaine, Chris Murphy and Marco Rubio introduced a resolution condemning the regime of Bashar Assad for “the brutal slaughter of more than 400,000 innocent Syrian civilians” and calling on the Trump administration “to pursue a strategy to bring the violence and destruction in Syria to an end.” The resolution also denounces Russia and Iran for their political and military support of the Assad regime, and calls for protection of civilians and humanitarian workers.
TARGETING THE MARINE ABUSERS: In his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee this week. Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller noted that there are sometimes legal obstacles to prosecuting Marines who distribute lewd photos. While there are provisions of the Uniform Code of Military Justice that can be interpreted to prohibit the distribution of photos and the disparagement of female marines, Rep. Jackie Speier wants to give the military more tools to prosecute the abusers. Speier is introducing a bill today to criminalize service members sharing photos of others online without consent in the wake of the Marines United scandal. Speier will talk about the Servicemembers Intimate Privacy Protection Act in an afternoon press conference joined by Erika Butner, who had her photos posted on the private Facebook group.
SEX ASSAULT REPORT: Two out of the three main military academies saw an increase in reports of sex assaults last year, the AP reports. From the story: “The new data underscore the challenge in stemming bad behavior by young people at the military college campuses. That’s despite a slew of programs designed to prevent assaults, help victims and encourage them to come forward. The difficulties in some ways mirror those the larger military is struggling with amid revelations about Marines and other service members sharing nude photos on websites. Assault reports rose at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., and the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y., while dropping at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado.”
MORE VISAS FOR TERPS: A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill yesterday that would bring the number of Afghan special immigrant visas for fiscal 2017 back up to the level requested by President Obama. Sens. John McCain, Jeanne Shaheen, Jack Reed and Thom Tillis introduced the bill, which would add 2,500 additional visas for Afghan interpreters who worked with U.S. troops to the 1,500 that were passed in the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act.
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: Even close Trump ally Rep. Devin Nunes is now saying there’s no evidence yet to back up the president’s claim that the Obama administration wiretapped Trump Tower, Todd Shepherd writes. The House Intelligence Committee chairman said Wednesday neither he nor panel ranking member Rep. Adam Schiff have seen evidence to support the claim, and that the committee had set a deadline for the Justice Department to respond to requests for information by March 20. He confirmed that FBI Director James Comey will testify before the committee March 20 and that a second hearing will be held March 28.
Adm. Mike Rogers, head of the National Security Agency, will also be at the March 20 meeting, and Nunes said most of the other people invited to testify, such as former acting Attorney General Sally Yates, are expected to attend the later meeting.
NEW NAME FLOATED FOR ARMY SECRETARY: The Trump administration is considering Tennessee state Sen. Mark Green for Army secretary after Trump’s pick backed out nearly six weeks ago. The White House is expected to make a decision about Green soon, according to a report by the Tennessean on Wednesday. The 52-year-old physician served three tours overseas and later created AlignMD, an emergency room management firm. He joined the state Senate in early 2013.
MATTIS GOES TO MAT? We haven’t confirmed it, but there’s a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at the internecine warfare among senior Trump administration officials that may help explain the backlog in filling top-level jobs. Defense News quotes sources who say Mattis has repeatedly clashed with Mira Ricardel, a top defense voice on the Trump campaign who is at the Office of Presidential Personnel, over nominees for Pentagon jobs. It now appears Ricardel will be taking a new job soon soon, according to the report, which quoted “one source familiar with the discussions” as saying “Mattis told the White House either Mira goes, or he walks. They blinked.”
SHOW ME THE MONEY: On the campaign trail, Trump’s promises to grow the military force by 10 to 15 percent don’t mesh with his proposed fiscal 2018 defense budget that is only 3 percent higher than Obama’s projection for fiscal 2018, analysts said. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution said it would take a 7 to 12 percent increase in the base defense budget to cover the kind of growth Trump is talking about.
Experts also speculated that we should all buckle in for the same defense vs. non-defense budget fights we saw under Obama. “We’re throwing fuel on the same old fights of the last administration,” said Mackenzie Eaglen of the American Enterprise Institute, which hosted the panel discussion yesterday morning.
COATS, MCMASTER GET GOOD NEWS: The Senate yesterday afternoon overwhelmingly confirmed former Sen. Dan Coats to be the director of national intelligence by an 85-12 vote and voted to preserve national security adviser H.R. McMaster’s three-star lieutenant general rank, Susan Crabtree writes. Coats was confirmed by an 85-12 vote and McMasters’ retention of his rank was approved 86-10. Coats, a non-controversial nominee, is widely respected by his former Senate colleagues and enjoyed the support of a large number of Democrats in his confirmation vote.
DIPLOMATIC PRESS IS REVOLTING: Foreign policy reporters ripped into the State Department on Wednesday for allowing a single reporter from a conservative media outlet to fly with Tillerson to Asia, after initially telling reporters there was no room on the plane for any press, Joel Gehrke writes. Erin McPike, a White House reporter for the Independent Journal Review, flew with Tillerson, which led to several minutes of complaints from the foreign policy press who found out about the decision from press reports, not the State Department.
The topic dominated the first half the the State Department briefing and long-time beat reporters were incredulous with acting spokesman Mark Toner’s explanation. “It was decided to make it outside the box, if I could put it that way, decision to bring somebody in who doesn’t necessarily cover the State Department,” said Toner, a “media outlet [that] isn’t steeped in foreign policy, to get a new fresh perspective.” The diplomatic press corps argued that if there was only one seat available on Tillerson’s plane, it should have gone to a pool reporter who would share the reporting with other news organizations. One thing was very clear as the reporters peppered Toner with aggressive questions: the press corps is pissed.
SANCTIONS OVER FAKE ISLANDS: Chinese attempts to claim sovereignty over a pair of critical shipping lanes that also hold “significant” oil and gas reserves should provoke economic sanctions from the United States, according to a pair of senators. China has been building artificial islands and structures capable of holding surface-to-air-missiles in the South China Sea, a relatively narrow passage between several countries that bears $5.2 trillion worth of global commerce every year. The United States, lacking any territorial claim to the waters, has asserted the right of freedom of navigation in the area and supported the Philippines in contesting China’s new territorial claims. But the sanctions legislation would put the U.S. government in direct opposition to the Chinese.
“China’s illegitimate actions in the South China Sea threaten the region’s security and American commerce,” Rubio said Wednesday. “These ongoing, flagrant violations of international norms cannot be allowed to go unchecked, and the sanctions called for in this legislation would put Beijing on notice that the United States means business and intends to hold violators accountable.”
MESSAGE TO TRUMP: Russian diplomats want to extend an olive branch to Trump’s team, contingent on the United States and western powers taking the blame for current tensions with Russia, Joel Gehrke writes. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration conducted a “foreign ministry collegium” to “analyse Russia-West relations” and how they might be improved. Their verdict was clear. “It was pointed out that these relations had deteriorated through the fault of Russia’s Western partners,” the Foreign Ministry bulletin said. “Equal and honest interaction is only possible if the attempts to ‘contain’ Russia are abandoned and if relations are based on the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and respect for each other’s interests.”
THE RUNDOWN
Defense One: What’s the Purpose of President Trump’s Navy?
Fox News: China next US threat? Beijing beefs up military to protect trade
War on the Rocks: Get real on Iran’s missile program
MSNBC: Military progress in Mosul leaves Trump in an awkward position
UPI: Canada confirms Super Hornet procurement plan
UPI: Romania plans to buy 20 additional F-16s
Defense One: A New Kind of War Demands New Defensive Alliances
Fox News: Rep. Duncan Hunter: Hell no, Marine Corps Commandant Neller should not go
Daily Beast: Why Marines Might Get Away With Sharing Nude Photos
Military.com: Facebook CEO Makes Stop at Fort Bragg During ‘Year of Travel’
BBC: Small drone ‘shot with Patriot missile’
Task and Purpose: Sexual Assault At Military Academies Is Only Getting Worse
Military.com: 3 Airmen Die After SpecOps Plane Crashes in New Mexico
Wall Street Journal: Suicide Bombers Hit Government Strongholds in Syria’s Capital, Killing Dozens
Calendar
THURSDAY | MARCH 16
8 a.m. Rayburn 2118. A panel of Navy witnesses testifies on the current state of the service. armedservices.house.gov
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Rep. Seth Moulton and Rep. Brad Wenstrup talk about America’s place in the world and foreign policy strategy. atlanticcouncil.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. A panel of nuclear experts testifies at an oversight hearing on the nuclear security enterprise. armedservices.house.gov
2 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul Zukunft delivers his annual State of the Coast Guard address. Press.org
3 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. John Roth, performing the duties of undersecretary of defense comptroller, and Army Lt. Gen. Anthony R. Ierardi, director, Force Structure, Resources and Assessment (J8), Joint Staff, conduct an off-camera, on-the-record briefing to provide details on the fiscal year 2017 budget amendment.
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Army officials testify about sequestration’s impacts on the service’s readiness. armedservices.house.gov
FRIDAY | MARCH 17
8:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Rep. Adam Kinzinger speaks at the Atlantic Council about America’s role in the world. atlanticcouncil.org
MONDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. Longworth 1100. The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence holds an open hearing on the investigation into Russian hacking. intelligence.house.gov
11:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Rep. Joe Wilson talks about countering threats from North Korea. hudson.org
TUESDAY | MARCH 21
8:00 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Army and Air Force chiefs speak at a day-long conference on the future of war. newamerica.org
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove testifies on a panel before the Senate about U.S. policy and strategy in Europe. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former national security adviser Stephen Hadley testify on America’s role in the world. armedservices.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. The House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing looking at options for handling threats from North Korea. foreignaffairs.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee holds a hearing on the social media policies of the military services. armedservices.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 22
8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a day-long conference on issues in space for the new administration. csis.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on the challenges of hybrid warfare. armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A former CIA analyst discusses his new book, Debriefing the President: The Interrogation of Saddam Hussein. brookings.edu
11:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The lead negotiators of the Iran nuclear deal talk about opportunities in U.S.-Iran relations in the new administration. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Maj. Gen. Scott West, the director of current operations for the U.S. Air Force, testifies about the current state of the service. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Russell 222. A panel of Army witnesses testifies about modernization. armed-services.senate.gov
THURSDAY | MARCH 23
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of U.S. European Command, testifies on U.S. strategy in Europe. armed-services.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Three acting government officials testify about the U.S. policy toward countering weapons of mass destruction in fiscal 2018. armedservices.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Former defense officials testify about reforming civilian personnel. armed-services.senate.gov
