‘THINGS COULD GO CRAZY QUICKLY’: With Russia not only continuing to build up its forces encircling Ukraine but moving them much closer to the borders, President Joe Biden is warning the thousands of Americans in Ukraine not to wait any longer if they want to avoid being caught up in a Russian invasion.
“American citizens should leave now,” Biden said in a recorded interview that will air in full Sunday during NBC’s Super Bowl pregame show.
“It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly,” Biden told NBC News anchor Lester Holt.
Russia continues to deny it intends to send its troops across the border to topple the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, but the growing size of the Russian forces — now estimated at well above 130,000 troops — is unprecedented since the end of World War II.
And many of those troops are conducting joint exercises in Belarus — in prime position to move against the Ukrainian capital Kyiv from the north.
“And we are closely monitoring Russia’s deployment in Belarus, which is the biggest since the end of the Cold War,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg after meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson,
Stoltenberg is not the first to note that the Russian forces are backed up by the kind of combat support not typical for exercises, including “heavy equipment, missiles, and key enablers such as command and control and medical units.”
New commercial satellite imagery released by the U.S.-based Maxar Technologies shows Russia adding to its forces in at least three locations — Crimea, western Russia, and Belarus.
“In Crimea there was a significant deployment of troops and equipment to an airfield, including 550 troop tents and hundreds of vehicles,” according to Maxar.
BORIS JOHNSON WARNS ‘NEXT FEW DAYS’ COULD DETERMINE RUSSIA’S PATH IN UKRAINE
NO EVACUATION PLAN: Asked by Holt if there is a scenario under which U.S. troops would enter Ukraine to rescue stranded Americans, Biden said, “There’s not. That’s a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.”
“We’re in a very different world than we’ve ever been,” he added.
Biden said even if Russian President Vladimir Putin might be “foolish enough to go in, he’s smart enough not to, in fact, do anything that would negatively impact on American citizens.”
“Have you ever told him that?” Holt asked, to which Biden responded, “Yes.”
“You’ve told him that, that Americans will be a line that they can’t cross?” Holt pressed.
“I didn’t have to tell him that. I’ve spoken about that. He knows that,” Biden said.
US EMBASSY WARNING: The latest statement from the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv says bluntly, “U.S. citizens in Ukraine should be aware that the U.S. government will not be able to evacuate U.S. citizens in the event of Russian military action anywhere in Ukraine.”
“Military action may commence at any time and without warning and would also severely impact the U.S. Embassy’s ability to provide consular services, including assistance to U.S. citizens in departing Ukraine,” the statement said.
The embassy urges any Americans who plan to remain in Ukraine to register online so the U.S. government can stay in touch with them.
There are more than 7,000 Americans currently registered with the embassy, but the number of U.S. citizens in the country is believed to be closer to 30,000.
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ONE FRIEND HELPING ANOTHER: In an interview with UAE’s official news agency, U.S. Central Commander Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie said a squadron of U.S. fighter jets and American top-of-the-line missile defenses will help defend the Gulf emirate against the recent drone and missile attacks from Iranian-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen.
“The United States has moved quickly and swiftly to help an old friend,” McKenzie told the Emirates News Agency during a visit to the United Arab Emirates this week. “We brought a destroyer in, a guided-missile destroyer, the USS Cole, which has ballistic missile defense capabilities … Additionally, over the next week or so, we’re going to bring in a squadron of F-22 fighters, the best air superiority fighter in the world, and they will also work with their UAE partners to defend the nation.”
“We think of this as just one friend helping another in a time of crisis,” McKenzie said.
FIRST COMBAT KILLS BY THAAD: McKenzie also confirmed that America’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, known as THAAD, was employed successfully twice in the UAE to shoot down incoming missiles.
“We’re happy to see the THAAD, the high altitude air defense system, made by the United States, employed successfully by UAE really in the first two successful combat employments of that system,” McKenzie said. “So that’s been very good. I know that sends a strong message of reassurance to everyone in the UAE.”
“We witnessed a major milestone in missile defense when the THAAD system conducted its first intercept of a missile in combat,” said John Rood, a former undersecretary of defense for policy, at a recent forum sponsored by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance.
“The recent intercept test in the UAE demonstrates why these things matter so much in terms of the ability to protect civilians, military forces, industries,” Rood said. “Missile defense saved lives. For proof, you only need to look at what happened with the first THAAD intercepting combat.”
HOW TO KILL A DRONE: Increasing the threat from the Houthis, and other groups, come from drones, which are harder to detect and can be just as deadly as a ballistic missile.
McKenzie says the U.S. and its allies, as well as industry, are working together to find a solution.
“You’d like to work against them — what we call ‘left of launch,’ before they can be launched. You’d like to be able to detect the launch, and then you’d like to be able to see them and be able to interfere with their flight,” McKenzie said. “And if you can’t do that, you certainly like to be able to shoot them down as they get near their intended target.”
US CONDEMNS HOUTHI ATTACK: The White House said it would hold Yemen’s Houthi rebels accountable for carrying out a terrorist attack targeting an airport in Saudi Arabia that injured at least a dozen innocent civilians.
“The Houthis have claimed responsibility for this attack, and we will work with our Saudi and international partners to hold them accountable,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a statement.
“As the President told His Majesty King Salman yesterday, we are committed to supporting Saudi Arabia in the defense of its people and territory from these attacks. America will have the backs of our friends in the region,” Sullivan said.
INDUSTRY WATCH: The State Department has approved the potential sale of 36 Boeing F-15ID fighter jets to Indonesia for an estimated cost of $13.9 billion.
The Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the sale is “vital to U.S. national interest to assist Indonesia in developing and maintaining a strong and effective self-defense capability.”
“The proposed sale will improve Indonesia’s capability to meet current and future threats by enabling it to provide increased deterrence and air defense coverage across a very complex air and maritime domain. Indonesia will have no difficulty absorbing these aircraft and equipment into its armed forces,” a statement said.
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The Rundown
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Washington Examiner: Pentagon won’t let reporters embed with troops in Europe amid Russia conflict
Washington Examiner: Twelve people hurt in Houthi terror attack at Saudi Arabian airport
Washington Examiner: Civilian death toll in ISIS leader raid could be higher than Pentagon first said
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Washington Examiner: Top-secret and other classified documents found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago: Report
Washington Examiner: Three Canadian border crossings now blocked as ‘Freedom Convoy’ protests spread
New York Times: With Buildup On Land And Sea, Russia Closes Noose On Ukraine
Reuters: Macron refused Russian COVID test in Putin trip over DNA theft fears – sources
Washington Post: With watchers on the ground and spy drones overhead, U.S. zeroed in on Islamic State leader’s hideout
Washington Post: ISIS leader probably rigged his house to explode, U.S. says, but questions about death toll remain
AP: US: Civilian toll in Syria raid may be higher than thought
AP: Biden to split frozen Afghan funds for 9/11 victims, relief
Reuters: Iranian president says Tehran ‘never has hope’ in Vienna nuclear talks
Air Force Magazine: AFA Leaders Call on Congress to Break Cycle of CRs Funding Pentagon
Air Force Magazine: Replacing the E-3: USAF Asks Companies How They Could Build Prototypes in 5 Years
USNI News: Navy, Marines Want The Light Amphibious Warship To Haul 75 Marines For $150M Or Less
National Defense Magazine: Navy Must Look to Allies to Match China’s Shipbuilding Speed
Forbes: There Are More And More F-35-Carriers. The U.S. Marine Corps Is Flying From Most Of Them.
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Rep. Andy Biggss: As with Obama, Biden’s weakness invites Russian aggression
19fortyfive.com: ISIS 2.0: The Islamic State Is Making a Comeback
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How to End the War in Yemen For Good
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why Joe Biden’s Nuclear Talks with Iran Look Like a Disaster
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Putin Must Understand: Invading Ukraine Would Be a Historic Mistake for Russia
Calendar
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 11
9 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program virtual discussion: “How to Avert an Economic Collapse in Afghanistan,” with former Afghan Finance Minister Khalid Payenda; former Afghan Central Bank Governor Khalil Sediq; Khisrow Fazli, CEO of Ghazanfar Bank; and Julia Friedlander, former senior policy adviser at the Treasury Department https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hindsight-front
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion with former Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kim Sung-han, professor at Korea University https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-41-kim-sung-han
12:30 p.m. — New York University’s Brademas Center virtual discussion: “What’s at Stake in Ukraine?” with Volodymyr Ishchenko, research associate at the Free University of Berlin’s Institute of East European Studies; Sophie Lambroschini, associate researcher at the Marc Bloch Center, Berlin; Adam Tooze, professor at Columbia University; Masha Gessen, staff writer at the New Yorker; Zvi Ben-Dor Benite, professor of history at New York University; and Stefanos Geroulanos, professor of European intellectual history at New York University https://nyu.zoom.us/webinar/register
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 14
12 p.m. — Project 2049 Institute event: “Taiwan’s Global Gravity: The Push and Pull of Coercive and Annihilative Cross-Strait Scenarios,” with Amb. Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s representative to the U.S.; Randall Schriver, former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Rep. Elaine Luria D-Va.; and others https://project2049.net/event/taiwans-global-gravity
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
7 a.m. — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters at NATO headquarters ahead of Wednesday and Thursday meeting of the NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army webinar: “Warrant Officer Talent Management,” with Chief Warrant Officer 5 Rick Knowlton, the senior warrant officer adviser for the Army Talent Management Task Force; CW5 Patrick Nelligan, command chief warrant officer of the Army Reserve Command; and CW5 Teresa Domeier, command chief warrant officer of the Army National Guard https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/-Noon-Report-Talent-Management
2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of The Mitchell Institute https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 18
All day — The Munich Security Conference begins and goes through Sunday. Feb. 20 at its traditional venue, the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend, along withUkrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plans to participate.https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/information
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly.”
President Joe Biden telling NBC News anchor Lester Holt that Americans should leave Ukraine now.
