As Trump slows Syria withdrawal, the US-led coalition steps up effort to finish off ISIS

WHO’S DESPERATE NOW? Over the past several months the U.S.-led coalition has described the remnants of ISIS in Syria as increasingly desperate and on the verge of defeat. But now under President Trump’s verbal — though not-yet-official — orders for some 2,000 U.S. troops to depart, the coalition is the one appearing desperate to deliver ISIS a coup de grâce.

FAR FROM OVER: On Friday, the coalition (formal name: Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve) released a summary of the support the U.S. and other coalition countries have given the Kurdish and Arab fighters still battling ISIS in the Middle Euphrates River Valley near the Iraq border. In the last two weeks of December, at the same time Trump claimed, “We won,” the coalition conducted 469 strikes against 1,001 targets in Syria. More than 600 targets were what was described as “ISIS tactical units.”

Then, on Sunday, the coalition announced it had taken out what it called “ISIS propaganda cells,” with a combination of airstrikes and precision ground fire against “ISIS fighters, media cells, and a general service building.” Both statements made it clear the mission to defeat ISIS, dubbed “Operation Roundup,” is not over. “CJTF-OIR will continue to target ISIS, which will remain committed to the enduring defeat of ISIS to improve conditions for peace and stability in the region, and to protect all our homelands from ISIS’s terrorist threat,” said the Friday release.

NOT SO FAST: Enter John Bolton, the president’s national security adviser. Trump’s troop withdrawal announcement reportedly blindsided Bolton, as the president ignored his prepared talking points and abruptly told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a Dec. 14 phone call. Trump said in that exchange he would withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and let Turkey finish the job.

Bolton spent the weekend in Israel reassuring Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. withdrawal would be conditions-based, not precipitous.

“We’ll be discussing the president’s decision to withdraw, but to do so from northeast Syria in a way that makes sure that ISIS is defeated and is not able to revive itself,” Bolton said at a joint news conference with Netanyahu. “There are objectives that we want to accomplish that condition the withdrawal,” Bolton told reporters in Jerusalem, according to the AP. “The timetable flows from the policy decisions that we need to implement.”

Bolton also said the U.S. wants assurances that Turkey will not attack the Kurdish forces it considers terrorists, but which, at the behest of the U.S., did the bulk of the heavy fighting against ISIS.

“We don’t think the Turks ought to undertake military action that’s not fully coordinated with and agreed to by the United States,” Bolton said, insisting Trump will not allow Turkey to kill America’s Kurdish allies. “That’s what the president said, the ones that fought with us.”

Bolton is in Turkey today along with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford for talks with Turkish officials.

SIGHS OF RELIEF: On ABC, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith D-Wash., welcomed Bolton’s clarification — contradicting Trump’s earlier characterization of the withdrawal. “The two points that John Bolton made are obvious,” Smith said. “We don’t want ISIS to rise again and be a transnational terrorist threat and we don’t want our allies, the Kurds, to be slaughtered by Erdogan in Turkey.”

“I’m pleased that John Bolton has recognized the national security interest, but that’s what we want to have on the Armed Services Committee, not a tweet going, ‘Eh, let’s get out of Syria.’”

“I think this is the reality setting in that you’ve got to plan this out,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on CBS. Graham voiced concerns about the risk of premature withdrawal in a private lunch with Trump a week ago. “I applaud the president for reevaluating what he’s doing. He hasn’t changed his mind but he’s listening to a lot of good advice.”

And on Fox, former Armed Services Committee Chairman, now-ranking member Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas was still wary. “I would be concerned about putting too much stock into promises from Turkey that they’re not going to attack the Kurds,” Thornberry told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo. “There’s still a lot of worries that if you let up the pressure on terrorist groups, whether they’re in Syria, Afghanistan or Yemen, they can spring back to life very quickly and threaten us here at home.”

TRUMP: ‘I NEVER SAID QUICKLY’: Speaking to the reporters on the White House lawn yesterday, Trump insisted he never ordered an immediate withdrawal, despite saying in a Dec. 19 Twitter video of the 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, “They’re all coming back, and they’re coming back now.”

“We are pulling back in Syria. We’re going to be removing our troops. I never said we’re doing it that quickly, but we’re decimating ISIS,” Trump said yesterday. “We’re pulling out of Syria, but we’re doing it, and we won’t be finally pulled out until ISIS is gone.”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY, SHUTDOWN — DAY 16: With no end in sight to the stalemate over funding for his border wall, President Trump is floating the idea of declaring a national emergency and using Pentagon funds to build a border barrier or extend current fencing.

“I may declare a national emergency dependent on what’s going to happen over the next few days,” Trump said, indicating his decision would rest on the outcome of negotiations led by Vice President Mike Pence. “I don’t expect they’ll have anything happen at that meeting,” Trump said, “but I think we’re going to have some very serious talks come Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.”

On his return from Camp David, Trump elaborated. “We’re looking at a national emergency because we have a national emergency. Just read the papers. We have a crisis at the border of drugs, of human beings being trafficked all over the world. They are coming through. And we have an absolute crisis. And criminals and gang members coming through. It is national security. It is a national emergency.”

SPOILING FOR A COURT FIGHT: “There is a provision in law that says the president can declare an emergency. It’s been done a number of times. But primarily it’s been done to build facilities in Afghanistan and Iraq,” said Armed Services Chairman Smith on ABC, “In this case, I think the president would be wide open to a court challenge saying, ‘Where is the emergency?’”

It’s a court fight Trump would lose, argued Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., on CNN. “Look, if Harry Truman couldn’t nationalize the steel industry during wartime, this president doesn’t have the power to declare an emergency and build a multibillion-dollar wall on the border. So, that’s a nonstarter,” said the new chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. “I think that what the president needs to do more than anything else — he’s painted himself into a corner on this thing — is figure out how he unpaints himself from that corner.”

WASTE OF MONEY: Beyond legalities, Smith said, “This would be a terrible use of Department of Defense dollars. The president spends most of his time talking about how we’re not spending enough on national security, now he wants to take $20 billion out of the defense budget to build a wall, which by the way is not going to improve our border security.” Smith added, “The president seems unaware of this, but we have actually already built a wall across much of the border, and all border security experts that I talk to say, where a wall makes sense, it’s already been built.”

DOESN’T HAVE TO BE A WALL PER SE: Over on NBC, acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said Trump is not stuck on a massive concrete barrier. “Call it a wall, call it a fence, the president actually said he didn’t care what you call it. He even offered to let the Democrats help him design something. He says as long as it’s effective, he doesn’t care what you call it. We need something to prevent people from coming into this country illegally.”

Do we need it from coast to coast, 2,000 miles all the way across? No, and the president has admitted as such, Mulvaney said. “There are places in the middle of nowhere where technology will be better,” he added.

Trump gave much the same message late yesterday.

“V.P. Mike Pence and group had a productive meeting with the Schumer/Pelosi representatives today. Many details of Border Security were discussed,” Trump tweeted. “We are now planning a Steel Barrier rather than concrete. It is both stronger & less obtrusive. Good solution, and made in the U.S.A.”

SANDERS FACT-CHECKED ON FOX: One argument advanced by opponents of a border wall is that the bigger problem is the hundreds of thousands of people who overstay their visas, or so-called Special Interest Aliens, who come from countries that produced terrorists in the past. The debating point came up in this exchange on Fox News Sunday between White House press secretary Sarah Sanders and host Chris Wallace:

Sanders: We know that roughly, nearly 4,000 known or suspected terrorists come into our country illegally, and we know that our most vulnerable point of entry is at our southern border.

Wallace: Wait, wait, wait — I know the statistic; I didn’t know you were going to use it. But I studied up on this. Do you know where those 4,000 people come — where they’re captured? Airports.

Sanders: Not always.

Wallace: At airports.

Sanders: Certainly, a large number —

Wallace: The State Department says there hasn’t been any terrorists that they’ve found coming across the southern border with Mexico.

Sanders: It’s by air, it’s by land and it’s by sea. It’s all of the above. But one thing that you’re forgetting is that the most vulnerable point of entry that we have into this country is our southern border, and we have to protect it.

MATTIS MAY TESTIFY: Now that former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is a private citizen, Democrats are anxious to get him back before Congress to get his unvarnished take of Trump’s foreign policy. “His views on what we should be doing around the world would be invaluable for members of our committee. So, we’d love to get his perspective on a wide variety of issues,” said Armed Services Chairman Smith on ABC.

“I understand and I respect that a president has a right to private counsel from his top advisers. I’m not going to call former Secretary Mattis to say, ‘You know, what did the president say about this, what did he do about that?’ But Secretary Mattis is one of the most knowledgeable, capable experts we have on defense policy and foreign policy.”

AS CHIEF GOES, SO GOES THE CHIEF OF STAFF: In a totally expected move, Mattis’ chief of staff, retired Rear Adm. Kevin Sweeney, announced over the weekend he is resigning from his post at the Pentagon, and is returning to the private sector. Mattis handpicked Sweeney for the job, and with the boss gone, the next move for Sweeney was obvious.

The Wall Street Journal reports the departure was not entirely voluntary. “Mr. Sweeney had expressed a desire to stay on at the Pentagon as recently as last week,” the Journal reported, citing officials who said they believed Sweeny would provide continuity during the transition from Mattis to Shanahan. “But, under pressure from the White House, Mr. Shanahan informed Mr. Sweeney on Friday that he was removing him as chief of staff Friday,” the officials said.

SHANAHAN’S SALARY: Until the Office of Personnel Management stepped in last Friday, it appeared members of Trump’s Cabinet were going to get an unexpected and somewhat embarrassing pay raise. Because of the failure to pass funding for part of the federal government, a cap on pay raises expired, which in theory would mean senior government officials would get pay hikes averaging about $10,000 at the same time 800,000 government workers were getting no paychecks.

Acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan did not have to decide whether to accept the raise because the acting OPM director issued guidance effective instituting a pay freeze for senior officials “until appropriations legislation is enacted that would clarify the status of the freeze.”

As a deputy secretary, Shanahan would be entitled to a raise from $179,700 to $189,600. If he were paid at the rate of defense secretary, his pay would go from $199,700 to $210,700. Because he’s serving as acting secretary, it appears Shanahan is still being paid at the deputy’s rate. But over the weekend Pentagon officials could not say for sure.

“I LIKE ACTING’: Speaking of all the unusually large number of acting officials in Trump’s Cabinet, the president said yesterday he actually prefers it. “I said I like acting. It gives me more flexibility. Do you understand that? I like acting,” Trump said yesterday. “We have a great, great cabinet. If you look at my cabinet, we have a fantastic cabinet, really good.”

“And my actings are doing really great. David [Bernhardt] is doing great at Interior. Mick Mulvaney is doing great as chief of staff,” Trump said. “So, we have a few that are acting.”

USS COLE PLOTTER KILLED: President confirmed on Twitter reports from last week that the terrorist believed behind the attack on the USS Cole in the port of Aden in 2000 was killed by a U.S. airstrike. “Our GREAT MILITARY has delivered justice for the heroes lost and wounded in the cowardly attack on the USS Cole,” Trump tweeted Sunday, “We have just killed the leader of that attack, Jamal al-Badawi. Our work against al Qaeda continues. We will never stop in our fight against Radical Islamic Terrorism!”

Navy Capt. Bill Urban, a spokesman for CENTCOM in Tampa, Fla., provided more details.

“U.S. Central Command has confirmed that Jamal al-Badawi was killed in a precision strike in Marib governate, on Jan. 1.,” Urban said. “U.S. forces confirmed the results of the strike following a deliberate assessment process.”

Al-Badawi — one of the FBI’s most-wanted terrorists — was indicted by a federal grand jury in 2003 and was charged with 50 counts of terrorism-related offenses. He was also wanted for his involvement in the USS Cole attack.

IS SOMALIA NEXT? Our Friday edition noted the U.S. mission in Somalia to rout al-Shabaab militants used the same model as Syria. Later that day, NBC News published a story reporting Pentagon plans to scale back in Somalia, as part President Trump’s desire to diminish the number of U.S. troops abroad.

“The U.S. military plans to scale back its role in Somalia and curtail airstrikes against al-Shabaab insurgents after having taken out many of the group’s senior operatives,” NBC said, quoting two senior U.S. officials. The officials added the move reflects an assessment by the administration that while the Shabaab insurgency remains a threat to the Somali government and neighboring countries, it does not pose a direct danger to the U.S.

MARINE CORPS MIXES MALE, FEMALE PLATOONS: The Marine Corps is integrating male and female platoons at Marine Recruit Depot Parris Island in South Carolina, marking the first time the Marines has ever fully combined male and female platoons. The male and female platoons are living alongside each other in the barracks, but the female recruits are still led by female drill instructors.

The decision to integrate the platoons was made because there are fewer recruits in the winter and is not permanent. However, the Marine Corps said it will “provide Recruit Depot staff a unique opportunity to assess outcomes, achievements and challenges in training, logistics and resource impacts of this company training model.” The Marine Corps is the last branch of the military to fully integrate male and female platoons during recruit training.

THE LATEST FONOPS: The U.S keeps sailing warships through the South China Sea, and China continues its protests. In the latest Freedom of Navigation Operation or FONOP, the U.S. guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell sailed within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Island chain.

China called the transit near the disputed islands in the South China Sea a “provocation,” according to Reuters.

HAROLD BROWN 1927-2019: Former Secretary of Defense Harold Brown — who served during the Carter administration and was the first scientist to lead the Pentagon — has died in Rancho Santa Fe, Calif.

According to the Rand Corp., where Brown served as a member of the board of trustees, Brown died on Friday at 91. Brown’s daughter, Deborah Brown, said he had been battling pancreatic cancer, The New York Times reported.

“Dr. Brown led a remarkable life, first as an academic and scientist, and then as a public servant in a variety of prominent roles, including Director of Defense Research and Engineering, Secretary of the Air Force, and our 14th Secretary of Defense,” said acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan in a statement. “He shaped our nation’s military for more than two decades, revolutionizing the development of naval munitions, renovating America’s post-Vietnam War weapons platforms, developing stealth aircraft, and leading nuclear weapons research.

THE RUNDOWN

Stars and Stripes: Navy Sends First Ship Into Black Sea Since Russian Seizure

Business Insider: Iran says it will send warships into the Atlantic Ocean, challenging the US by pushing closer to American waters

New York Times: Gabon Coup Attempt Failed, Government Says

Washington Post: US sends troops for possible ‘violent’ Congo vote protests

Reuters: Taliban Seek Venue Change For Peace Talks With U.S.

Washington Post: Kurds seize Americans accused of joining ISIS

AP: With US leaving, rival powers seek to move into Syria’s east

Navy Times: ‘We’ll See How Frightened America Is’ — Chinese Admiral Says Sinking US Carriers Key To Dominating South China Sea

Washington Examiner: Revolving door: Jon Kyl raked in $1.9 million as lobbyist just before his four-month Senate stint

Military Times: The clash between Trump and his generals

Stars and Stripes: U.S. Negotiating With North Korea On Next Summit Venue, Trump Says

Breaking Defense: ‘Global Zero’ Double Standard For Nuclear Weapons

New York Times: The Border Wall: What Has Trump Built So Far?

Task & Purpose: Trial Date Set For Navy SEAL Accused Of War Crimes In Iraq

Calendar

MONDAY | JANUARY 7

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Falling apart? The politics of New START and strategic modernization”. www.brookings.edu

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 9

4:30 p.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington. National Veteran Small Business Coalition Dinner Meeting (DC Chapter). www.nvsbc.org

THURSDAY | JANUARY 10

7:15 a.m. NDIA Washington, D.C. Chapter Defense Leaders Forum Breakfast With General Mark Milley, 39th Chief of Staff, U.S. Army. http://www.ndia.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW. “Maritime Security Dialogue: Maritime Priorities for the New Year from the Senior Enlisted Perspective”. www.csis.org

FRIDAY | JANUARY 11

9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Japan’s New National Defense Program Guidelines: Alliance Strategies for the Third Post-Cold War Era”. www. http://carnegieendowment.org

12:15 p.m. 740 15th St NW #900. “Seventeen Years of Guantanamo”. www.newamerica.org

MONDAY | JANUARY 14

3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Lessons from the Hawaii Nuclear Missile Scare. www.wilsoncenter.org

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 16

1 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Securing maritime commerce — the U.S. strategic outlook” www.brookings.edu

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I’m sure that the people that are on the receiving end will make adjustments, they always do. And they’ll make adjustments. People understand exactly what’s going on. But many of those people that won’t be receiving a paycheck, many of those people agree 100 percent with what I’m doing.”
President Trump, insisting he can relate to the 800,000 federal workers not getting their paychecks because of the partial government shutdown.

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