ALL QUIET ON THE NORTH KOREAN FRONT: For the second year in a row, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has skipped his annual New Year’s Day speech, but he is expected to address the country’s eighth party congress later this month.
While some analysts have predicted that having failed to reach any agreement on denuclearization with the out-going administration of President Trump, Kim might take some provocative action or make some bellicose remarks to draw the attention of President Joe Biden, so far, all’s quiet on the North Korean front.
Instead of a lengthy speech, Kim released a brief handwritten letter “to all the people, greeting the hope-filled new year,” according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency. In the letter, Kim thanked the North Korean people “for having invariably trusted and supported our Party even in the difficult times” and pledged to “work hard to bring earlier the new era in which the ideals and desires of our people will come true.”
“All eyes are on what will be announced during the party congress as the North is expected to unveil its new economic development scheme for the next five years and could also disclose its new policy line on the U.S. and South Korea amid stalled denuclearization and frozen inter-Korean relations,” said South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
THE DOG THAT DIDN’T BARK — YET: “I say that we are not seeing any indicators that suggest that there would be a major provocation. But that’s today. That could change next week,” U.S. Korea Commander Gen. Robert Abrams told a virtual symposium Monday.
“I hope that that continues so that we can maintain that space, ultimately, for some sort of diplomatic outreach,” Abrams said in the virtual event.
Abrams also said despite the cancellation of major military exercises by President Trump, U.S. and South Korean forces are fully trained and ready. “Most militaries have not demonstrated the will or the capacity to train during the pandemic,” he said, according to Yonhap. “However, not here in Korea because your ROK and U.S. military leaders firmly believe in maintaining that sharp edge, so that we can ensure that our force is ready, credible, and it certainly prevents any potential adversaries from perceiving weakness in our readiness.”
ANALYSIS FROM 38 NORTH: “Despite speculation about timing the Party Congress around the inauguration of the new US president, the main purpose of the Congress is domestic, and chances are Kim will not spend much time or lay out much detail on foreign policy,” says the North Korea monitoring group 38 North. “The silence from North Korea on the U.S. since July has been deafening, including its lack of reaction to Joe Biden’s win over Donald Trump, and there is no way of knowing for sure whether Kim is keeping his options open for dealing with the new US administration, or if he already has plans in place.”
“If there is to be an olive branch, it is unlikely to be nakedly extended, but rather appear in gauzy form, to be detailed in a formal statement weeks later,” the analysis concludes. “In some ways, the most telling evidence on Pyongyang’s thinking about foreign policy may actually emerge in what tack it takes on economic policy. If Kim lays out a strictly go-it-alone path, accompanied by a retreat from his new economic approaches of the past several years, it would likely suggest little interest or willingness to engage the US. Emphasis on the North’s new ‘war deterrent’ strength is likely to be a theme Kim sounds, but won’t in itself mean a return to a more provocative stance.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: It’s the most important Election Day since the last most important Election Day just nine weeks ago, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance. Polls show the runoff elections for Georgia’s two Senate seats are whisker close, but in a race this tight, the polls are essentially meaningless.
Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are being challenged by Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, and both President Trump and President-elect Joe Biden were in the state last night urging voters to go to the polls today.
“I have to tell you that the stakes to this election cannot be higher … Your vote tomorrow will decide which party controls the United States Senate. The radical Democrats are trying to capture Georgia’s senate seats so they can have unchecked, unrestrained, absolute power over every aspect of your lives,” Trump told a crowd in Dalton. “By the way, there is no way we lost Georgia. That was a rigged election, but we are still fighting it, and you will see what is going to happen.”
Trump again insisted that Vice President Mike Pence could reject the electoral vote from key states and hand him the victory when Congress meets in a joint session tomorrow to count the votes, something that would violate an 1887 law. “I hope that our great vice president comes through for us. He is a great guy. Of course, if he doesn’t come through, I won’t like him quite as much.”
Meanwhile, at a rally earlier in the day, Biden said, “Georgia, the whole nation is looking to you to lead us forward, for real. You know it … The power is literally in your hands, unlike any time in my career. One state — one state can chart the course, not just for the next four years, but for the next generation.
DC NATIONAL GUARD CALLED UP: The mayor of Washington, D.C., has mobilized National Guard troops in anticipation of potential violence surrounding planned demonstrations in support of President Trump as Congress conducts the electoral vote count tomorrow.
Mayor Muriel Bowser is asking local residents to avoid confronting the protesters, retweeting a message urging counterprotesters to “find other ways to show your support for elections, democracy, and the Constitution.”
U.S. Park Police have updated their estimate of the number of expected protesters from 5,000 to 30,000, and traffic and parking restrictions go into effect today for most streets around the White House and the Capitol.
Over the weekend, Trump said he plans to make an appearance at the protests. “I will be there. Historic Day!” he tweeted.
PROUD BOY LEADER ARRESTED: Last night, local Washington, D.C., police arrested Henry “Enrique” Tarrio, the 36-year-old leader of the Proud Boys, one of the factions supporting Trump’s bid to overturn the results of the Nov. 3 election.
Tarrio is accused of burning a Black Lives Matter banner that was hanging from a historic black church during last month’s protests in downtown Washington. He was also charged with violating D.C.’s gun laws when police found that he had brought two high-capacity firearm magazines to Washington.
FRACTIOUS AFGHAN PEACE TALKS RESUME: U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad is shuttling between Doha and Kabul, trying to encourage the Afghan government and the Taliban to find common ground.
It’s a tall order given the Taliban’s recent round of assassinations and stepped-up attacks.
“I return to Doha and the region with expectations that the parties will make tangible progress in the next round of #Afghanistan Peace Negotiations,” Khalilzad tweeted. “The current levels of violence, including targeted killings, is unacceptable. Those perpetuating the violence seek to undermine the peace process and the country’s future. They do not reflect the will of the Afghan people, who yearn for peace.”
“The Taliban’s campaign of unclaimed attacks & targeted killings of government officials, civil society leaders & journalists must also cease for peace to succeed,” tweeted Col. Sonny Leggett, a spokesman for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, who also rejected a Taliban claim accusing the U.S. of undermining the talks by bombing civilian areas where the Taliban is in control.
“The Taliban’s accusations the US violated the US-TB agreement are false,” Leggett tweeted. “US Forces have been clear & consistent: We will defend Afghan forces against TB attacks. We renew our call for all sides to reduce violence.”
ASSANGE ‘SUICIDAL’: A British judge has ruled that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange should not be extradited to the United States to face criminal charges under the 1917 Espionage Act.
The judge said the isolated conditions Assange would likely face in the U.S. would be “oppressive” and a risk to his mental health, saying Assange was “a depressed and sometimes despairing man” who had the “intellect and determination” to circumvent any suicide prevention measures taken by the authorities.
The ruling, while a victory for Assange, is a blow to freedom of the press, argues Jameel Jaffer, executive director at the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University.
“The court endorses the U.S. prosecution even as it rejects the U.S. extradition request. The result is that the U.S. indictment of Assange will continue to cast a dark shadow over investigative journalism,” Jaffer said in a statement. “Of particular concern are the indictment’s counts that focus on pure publication — the counts that charge Assange with having violated the Espionage Act merely by publishing classified secrets. Those counts are an unprecedented attack on press freedom, one calculated to deter journalists and publishers from exercising rights that the First Amendment should be understood to protect.”
NUNES HONORED FOR ‘COURAGEOUS ACTIONS’ BATTLING THE ‘RUSSIA HOAX’: President Trump announced yesterday he will be bestowing the nation’s highest civilian honor, the Presidential Medal of Freedom, on Rep. Devin Nunes, a California Republican who has been one of Trump’s most stalwart defenders in Congress.
Nunes will receive the prestigious medal, which is awarded to individuals “who have made especially meritorious contributions” to national security, world peace, or “other significant public or private endeavors.”
“Devin Nunes’ courageous actions helped thwart a plot to take down a sitting United States president,” Trump said in a statement. “Congressman Nunes pursued the Russia Hoax at great personal risk and never stopped standing up for the truth. He had the fortitude to take on the media, the FBI, the Intelligence Community, the Democrat Party, foreign spies, and the full power of the Deep State.”
BROWN TO AUSA: Retired Gen. Robert Brown, former commander of U.S. Army Pacific, has joined the Association of the U.S. Army as its executive vice president, AUSA said in a release yesterday. Brown is a 1981 graduate of West Point who retired in 2019 after a 38-year career.
“I’ve known him for nearly 20 years and have served alongside him at Fort Lewis, in Iraq and in Germany,” said retired Gen. Carter Ham, AUSA president and CEO. “I have no doubt that he will make an immediate and positive impact at all levels of AUSA.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: Lockheed Martin Space, Sunnyvale, California, has been awarded a $4.9 billion contract for manufacturing, assembly, integration, test, and delivery of three Next Generation Geosynchronous Earth orbiting space vehicles, the Pentagon announced Monday.
“Work will be performed in Sunnyvale, California, and is expected to be completed May 31, 2028,” the Pentagon said.
Also, Boeing has been awarded a $21 million contract to convert Saudi Arabia’s F-15S aircraft to F-15SA models. Work will primarily be performed in St. Louis, Missouri, and is expected to be complete by Dec. 30, 2022.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Trump has Iran in check during vulnerable presidential transition, says congressman
Washington Examiner: Putin fears his motorcade route was exposed to US: Report
New York Times: Iraq, Struggling to Pay Debts and Salaries, Plunges Into Economic Crisis
Bloomberg: Pompeo Cites China, North Korea As Trump’s Unfinished Business
Politico: Trump Keeps Carrier In Middle East, Overruling His Pentagon Chief
Washington Post: A Year After Soleimani Killing, U.S.-Iran Tensions Rising
AP: South Korean Tanker Was Boarded By Armed Iran Guard Forces
CNN: UK Says Its Aircraft Carrier Strike Group Is Ready To Deploy. China’s Already Watching
Fox News: Navy Analyzes Future Aircraft Carrier Designs
USNI News: UK Royal Navy Declares IOC For Queen Elizabeth Carrier Strike Group Ahead Of Spring Deployment
AFP: Taiwan Says Chinese Jets Made Record 380 Incursions In 2020
Wall Street Journal: Saudis, Qatar to Settle Feud, Aiding U.S. Efforts on Iran
Air Force Magazine: DOD Extends F-35 Full-Rate Production Decision Due to Pandemic
Military.com: The Military Wants Volunteers To Test Another COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate
Air Force Magazine: SDA Taps SpaceX for Two Launches of New Satellites
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Oscar-Class Submarine: Built To Kill Aircraft Carriers
19fortyfive.com: Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon Could Be Historic
19fortyfive.com: SIG Sauer: Army Next Generation Squad Weapon Winner?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why ISIS just massacred Shia Muslim miners in Pakistan
Military.com: The Pentagon Has 6 Months To Disclose What It Knows About UFOs
Newsweek: Opinion: Mike Pompeo: China’s Nuclear Madness
Time: Opinion: James Stavridis: Ten Angry Men: What the Incredible Letter From Former Defense Secretaries Should Tell Americans
Calendar
TUESDAY | JANUARY 5
10 a.m. — Association of the United States Army “Thought Leaders” series, with retired Sgt. Maj. of the Army Kenneth Preston, Michael Barrett, former sergeant major of the Marine Corps; Rick West, former master chief petty officer of the Navy; James Roy, former chief master sergeant of the Air Force; Denise Jelinek-Hall, former senior enlisted adviser to the National Guard Bureau; and Charles Bowen, former master chief petty officer of the Coast Guard, who will discuss their book, Breaching the Summit: Leadership from the U.S. Military’s Best. https://info.ausa.org
3 p.m. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “How the U.S. can outpace its competitors on 5G while protecting national security,” with FCC Chairman Ajit Pai; and John Hamre, president and CEO of CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
4 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call with Adm. Charles Richard, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command.
5:30 p.m. — Institute for Policy Studies virtual discussion: “Dignity, Not Domination: The Need to Transform the U.S. Relationship with Iran,” with Azadeh Shahshahani, legal and advocacy director at Project South; Niloofar Adnani, graduate student at University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs; Khury Petersen-Smith, IPS Middle East fellow; and Negin Owliaei, IPS inequality editor and researcher. https://ips-dc.org/events/dignity-not-domination
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 6
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “U.S.-India Defense Ties: Partnership of the 21st Century,” with former Indian Integrated Defense Staff Chief Vice Adm. Shekhar Sinha; Abhijnan Rej, security and defense editor at the Diplomat and director of research at Diplomat Risk Intelligence; and Aparna Pande, director of the Hudson Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia. https://www.hudson.org/events
1 p.m. Senate Chamber — House and Senate meet in a joint session to count electoral votes of the 2020 presidential election.
4:30 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “The Space Force’s intelligence priorities,” with Air Force Maj. Gen. Leah Lauderback, Space Force director of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. https://www.insaonline.org/event
THURSDAY | JANUARY 7
1 p.m. — Center for the National Interest webinar: “Facing the Realities of International Cyber Conflict,” with Milt Bearden, distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for the National Interest; George Beebe vice president and director of studies at the Center for the National Interest; Paul Kolbe, director of the Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center; and former Undersecretary of Defense Dov Zakheim, vice chairman of the Center for the National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Women’s Gains in Afghanistan: Supporting Economic Opportunities for Afghan Women as a Driver of Peace and Security,” with Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues Kelley Currie; Brig. Gen. Kimberly Colloton, commander of the Army Corps of Engineers; Connie Duckworth, chairman and CEO of ARZU Inc.; Razia Jan, founder and CEO of Razia’s Ray of Hope Foundation; and Sara Greengrass, executive director of the U.S.-Afghan Women’s Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
5 p.m. — George Mason University National Security Institute “NatSec Nightcap” with Amb. Rosemary Banks, New Zealand Ambassador to the U.S.; and Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director, National Security Institute. https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap
FRIDAY | JANUARY 8
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Countering Unmanned Aerial Systems: The Path Forward,” with Army Maj. Gen. Sean Gainey, deputy director of Force Protection (J-8) Joint Staff; Nicole Thomas, division chief for strategy and policy at the Joint C-sUAS Office; and Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project. https://www.csis.org/events
10 a.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Did Russia just attack the U.S.? How should the Biden Administration respond? A conversation about the SolarWinds Hack,” with Thomas Rid, professor of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University and author of “Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare”; and Eliot Cohen, SAIS dean. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I hope that Michael Pence comes through for us. I hope that our great vice president comes through for us. He is a great guy. Of course, if he doesn’t come through, I won’t like him quite as much.”
President Trump, at a rally in Georgia Monday night, expressing the hope Pence will, in violation of an 1887 law, reject electoral votes from states where Biden won to give Trump a second term.
