‘IT DOESN’T CHANGE OUR CALCULUS’: Poland’s decision to transfer about a dozen of its Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine will have limited practical effect on the current grinding war of attrition on the front lines in eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian officials were hoping the move might clear the way for other NATO nations to send warplanes as well.
“Imagine Ukraine had F-16s on March 16, 2022, when Russian jets bombed and destroyed the Mariupol drama theater. How many could we have saved?” tweeted the Ukrainian Defense Ministry this morning. “Western weapons mean more alive Ukrainians. We need F-16s.”
But so far, the answer from the Biden administration is a firm no. “It doesn’t change our calculus with respect to F-16s,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters yesterday. “You’ve heard the president talk about this, it’s not on the table right now. And an announcement by another nation to provide fighter aircraft does not affect and does not change our own sovereign decision making about, in this case, F-16s.”
The Biden administration continues to argue the modern warplanes are not needed for the current fight, and in any event, could not be supplied in time for the anticipated spring counteroffensive.
“I am appealing to you to step up efforts to provide the Ukrainian Air Force with modern multi-purpose fighters of the fourth generation, which are capable of effectively protecting our country from Russian air terrorist strikes,” tweeted Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk, commander of the Ukrainian Air Force.
FIGHTER JETS TO UKRAINE WOULD TAKE 18 MONTHS AFTER BIDEN APPROVAL, PENTAGON SAYS
SLOVAKIA STEPS UP: Today, Slovakia became the second NATO country to pledge its fleet of aging MiGs for Ukraine.
Slovakia’s government has approved a plan to give Ukraine 13 Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, with Prime Minister Eduard Heger telling a news conference Slovakia is “on the right side of history,” according to the Associated Press.
In announcing his decision at a news conference in Warsaw yesterday, President Andrzej Duda said four of Poland’s aging MiGs are in “full working order” and will be sent right away. The rest of the donated planes have to be serviced and will be sent later. “They are in the last years of their functioning, but they are in good working condition,” Duda said.
The MiGs can be integrated easily into Ukraine’s air force, which has been slowly shrinking through attrition after a year of war. Even planes that are decades old can be stripped for spare parts if they are not fit for flying.
Last year, Poland suggested it could transfer all its MiGs to the U.S. air base in Ramstein, Germany, so they could be given to Ukraine in return for F-16s to update the Polish air forces, but Biden rejected the plan.
IF PLANNED UKRAINE OFFENSIVE FALTERS, AIR POWER ADVOCATES WILL BLAME BIDEN FOR LOSS
A POTENTIAL GAME CHANGER: A group of eight senators, five Democrats and three Republicans, have joined the growing chorus of lawmakers who are urging Biden’s Pentagon to reconsider its reluctance to send F-16s now.
“After speaking with U.S., Ukrainian, and foreign leaders working to support Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference last month, we believe the U.S. needs to take a hard look at providing F-16 aircraft to Ukraine,” the senators wrote in a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “This would be a significant capability that could prove to be a game changer on the battlefield.”
The letter is signed by Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Ted Budd (R-NC), Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Tim Kaine (D-VA), and Jacky Rosen (D-NV).
The group asks Austin to provide answers to key concerns, including the “potential operational impact of F-16s, the length of time it would take to assess and train Ukrainian pilots, how Ukraine would maintain the jets, and where the jets could be sourced from.”
BIPARTISAN GROUP OF LAWMAKERS URGE BIDEN TO PROVIDE UKRAINE WITH F-16S
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be on spring break beginning Monday, March 20, through Friday, the 24th. We’ll return to your inbox and online Monday, March 27.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
WAR OF WORDS: Russia is not backing down on its account of the downing of a U.S. MQ-9 drone over the Black Sea Tuesday, with the Russian Defense Ministry blaming the U.S. for the incident by ignoring wartime flight restrictions declared by Moscow, and with Russia’s ambassador to Washington sticking to his story that Russian fighter jets “did not come into contact” with the U.S. drone.
At a briefing for reporters, NSC spokesman John Kirby pointed to the video released yesterday as incontrovertible evidence that the U.S. surveillance drone was struck by a Russian Su-27 fighter jet.
“It is not uncommon at all for us to release imagery of these intercepts. We’ve done it plenty of times before … to lay bare and to make clear to the rest of the world the manner in which the Russians have been just flat-out lying, flat-out lying about their accounts,” said Kirby.
“When it comes to Russian actions against the U.S. drone, you can believe the Russian ambassador’s lies about how this happened. I choose not to,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who accused the Biden administration of projecting weakness.
“Russia intentionally knocked down a U.S. drone operating legally in international airspace. Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump, and other strong leaders would not take crap like this from adversaries of the United States,” Graham said in a statement. “I hope the Pentagon sends drones back in the same airspace and lets Russia know that we will defend American assets. Big wars start when brutal aggression is met with weakness. The best way to prevent big wars is to quickly stand up to aggressors.”
That statement provoked an unhinged response on Twitter from former Russian president and current Putin attack dog Dmitry Medvedev. “Yankees got brazen. To be polite with them is wrong, especially at the time of military operations. The military should surely keep in touch, while bastards like sen. graham say, Russian planes should be shot down. In fact, such beasts get into plane crashes sometimes.”
XI TO MOSCOW: China and Russia announced today that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Moscow for three days next week in a show of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Last month, China released a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine that called for, among other things, a ceasefire that would freeze the current battlefield positions in place.
“While that sounds perfectly reasonable, sounds like a good thing, a ceasefire right now would basically ratify Russia’s conquest,” said Kirby. “Russia would basically be free to use that ceasefire to further entrench its positions in Ukraine, to rebuild their forces, refit them, reman them, retrain them, so that they can then restart attacks at a time of their choosing.”
Instead, Kirby suggested Xi should consider talking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “We think it’s really important for the Chinese to get the Ukrainian perspective here and not just Mr. Putin’s,” he said. “We’ve been encouraging that for quite some time, for President Xi to hear from President Zelensky.”
US HASN’T SEEN CHINA PROVIDE LETHAL AID TO RUSSIA, PENTAGON SAYS
POLL: 47% AMERICANS DISAPPROVE OF BIDEN’S HANDLING UKRAINE: A new Quinnipiac University national poll found that nearly half of Americans disapprove of President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine.
Asked about Biden’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 45% said they approved, while 47% said they did not. Biden also got low ratings on foreign policy in general, with 39% percent approving and 53% disapproving.
On the economy, the split was 36% approving and 59% disapproving. Support for the president’s handling of the situation at the Mexican border was even lower, with 64% disapproving and only 23% approving.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Poland first NATO country to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Poland thwarts Russian spy plot to ‘paralyze’ Western aid shipments to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: US hasn’t seen China provide lethal aid to Russia, Pentagon says
Washington Examiner: UN investigators accuse Russia of ‘war crime’ against deported Ukrainian children
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How and why the US must prevent Russia from downing more drones
Washington Examiner: Future of all-volunteer Army in peril as Gen Z shuns military service
Washington Examiner: Senate overcomes first hurdle to repeal Iraq and Gulf war authorizations
Washington Examiner: CENTCOM commander says ISIS-K will be able to strike US interests in ‘under six months’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Has America been too slow to wake up to the China threat?
AP: China leader Xi to visit Moscow in show of support for Putin
AP: China foreign minister in rare call with Ukraine counterpart
AP: North Korea says ICBM test aimed to strike fear into enemies
Reuters: Concern Over Indo Pacific Friction ‘Alarming’, Top U.S. Admiral Says
Reuters: Wagner’s convicts tell of horrors of Ukraine war and loyalty to their leader
New York Times: All-Out Defense Of Bakhmut Depletes Ukraine Arsenal For Spring
Fox News: Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger Says There’s ‘Zero Evidence’ DEI Training Distracts From Readiness
Bloomberg: Air Force Expects Delay in First Flight of B-21 Stealth Bomber
19fortyfive.com: B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber: Can It Be Built Affordably?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Su-57 Felon Stealth Fighter Just Might Be All Hype Afterall
19fortyfive.com: M1 Abrams Tank: A Game Changer for Ukraine or Just a Waste of Time?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: Air Force Wants as Many as 2,000 CCAs with a Common, Modular Airframe
Air & Space Forces Magazine: The Air Force Changed Its Mind on Some Cuts to the F-15EX Buy—But Won’t Go Any Farther
Defense Daily: Del Toro: Long-Term Shipbuilding Plan Will Retain Three Options
Calendar
FRIDAY | MARCH 17
10 a.m. — Wilson Center’s Asia Program virtual discussion: “Taiwan and Its Partners Beyond the Silicon Shield,” with Shelley Rigger, professor at Davidson College; and Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/taiwan
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Attracting and Scaling Private Capital in Support of National Security,” with Jason Rathje, director of the Defense Department’s Office of Strategic Capital https://www.csis.org/events/dods-office-strategic-capital
12 p.m. 112 Elden St., Herndon, Va. — Clare Boothe Luce Center for Conservative Women discussion: “The Communist China Threat,” with Victoria Coates, senior research fellow for international affairs and national security at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Freedom. RSVP: Lindsey Cruz, [email protected]
1 p.m. 1957 E Street NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “Nuclear Security: Our View from Vienna,” with Laura Holgate, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Vienna Office https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/nuclear_security
MONDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar with Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces, air component commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Register: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-20
TUESDAY | MARCH 21
9 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg presents his annual report for 2022, at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int
9:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” research paper release: “Understanding the B-21 Raider: America’s Deterrence Bomber,” with author Mark Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capability assessments; and Maj. Gen. Jason Armagost, director of strategic plans, programs, and requirements, Air Force Global Strike Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 22
2:30 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar with Gen. Mark Kelly, commander, Air Combat Command; and Gen. James Hecker, commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa, and Allied Air Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-22
THURSDAY | MARCH 23
6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, Va.— Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event on Army budget, with John Daniels, deputy assistant Army secretary for plans, programs and resources; and Maj. Gen. Mark Bennett, director of the Army budget https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/fy24-army-budget
TBA 2123 Rayburn — House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on TikTok’s consumer privacy and data security practices, the platforms’ impact on kids, and their relationship with the Chinese Communist Party, with testimony from TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew http://energycommerce.house.gov
7 p.m. 390 Cannon — Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “The Chinese Communist Party’s Ongoing Uyghur Genocide” https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/
MONDAY | MARCH 27
10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in-person event: “The Iraq War Series: Operation Iraqi Freedom,” with Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser; Robert Kagan, senior fellow, Brookings Institution; Melvyn Leffler, professor of history emeritus, University of Virginia; Danielle Pletka, distinguished senior Fellow, AEI; and Gary Schmitt, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/the-iraq-war-series-operation-iraqi-freedom
10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar: “Operational Imperative Series: Defining the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) System-of-Systems,” with Maj. Gen. R. Scott Jobe, director of plans, programs, and requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command; Maj. Gen. Heather Pringle, commander, Air Force Research Laboratory; Maj. Gen. Evan Dertien, commander, Air Force Test Center; and Brig. Gen. Dale White, Air Force Program executive officer for fighters and advanced aircraft https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-27
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The Russians have been just flat-out lying, flat-out lying about their accounts.”
NSC spokesman John Kirby, on Russian denials over the downing of a U.S. MQ-9 drone over the Black Sea Tuesday
