SHANAHAN CONFIRMATION VOTE: President Trump’s pick to be deputy defense secretary, Boeing vice president Pat Shanahan, is set for a final confirmation vote in the Senate today. The chamber voted to end debate and move forward Monday evening after a partisan scuffle over the slow pace of approving nominees. After a rocky trip through the Senate, Shanahan, who was passed to the floor by the Senate Armed Services Committee on June 28, could soon be the Defense Department’s No. 2 under Defense Secretary Jim Mattis as the department attempts to shore up depleted forces and prepare for a buildup next year. During Shanahan’s Armed Services hearing, Sen. John McCain berated him for vague answers on arming the Ukrainians and threatened to hold up the nomination, relenting after Shanahan filed amended answers to his written committee testimony.
MORE NOMINEES IN SENATE: Despite McCain’s medical absence due to a blood clot, his Armed Services Committee is pushing ahead today on five Trump administration defense nominees with senior Republican member Sen. James Inhofe holding the gavel. First up this morning, Gen. Paul Selva will face the committee for his re-appointment to vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. McCain has made filling Pentagon positions a top priority this month and Armed Services is slated for a rare afternoon hearing on four nominees:
- Matthew Donovan to be Air Force undersecretary.
- Lucian Niemeyer to be assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations and environment.
- Ellen Lord to be defense undersecretary for acquisition, technology and logistics.
- John H. Gibson II to be deputy chief management officer of the Defense Department.
FROM HERE TO 355 SHIPS: Senate Armed Services will also hold the first of two hearings this afternoon aimed at charting a course for the Navy to reach its goal of a 355-ship fleet. Trump’s election and promises of an historic military buildup have sparked a lot of talk about President Ronald Reagan’s buildup in the 1980s. The committee will follow that theme with testimony from former Reagan administration officials, including former Navy Secretary John Lehman, who advocated for a 600-ship fleet. Next week’s hearings will include naval analysts.
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
LOCKHEED EARNINGS TODAY: Lockheed Martin will announce its second quarter results today at 11. Lockheed is the prime contractor for the F-35 and the Freedom-class littoral combat ship program, and is also in the running for the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, the Long-Range Standoff missile and the T-X aircraft trainer replacement program. The rest of the big five (General Dynamics, Boeing, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman) are releasing second quarter results next week.
IRAN DEAL UPHELD, FOR NOW: The Trump Administration is holding its nose and grudgingly certifying that Iran is in compliance with the international nuclear agreement that Trump pledged to dismantle just last year when he was running for office, Joel Gehrke and Sarah Westwood write. The certification by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson comes despite the finding that Iran “is unquestionably in default of the spirit” of the 2016 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and goes against the advice of many Republican senators who cited Iran’s recent violations and broader aggression in the region. A declaration of non-compliance would set the stage for expedited Iran sanctions and a likely fatal disruption of the agreement.
But the White House also took a major step away from the past administration by promising to impose new sanctions against Iran for other questionable activities, such as its ongoing ballistic missile testing. “We [will be] putting on new sanctions to hold Iran accountable for its misbehavior in the region on a bunch of fronts, related to … things like missiles, and fast boat provocations and that sort of thing; illicit procurement networks and that sort of thing,” a senior administration official told reporters.
TWO MORE NOMINEES NAMED: The White House announced yesterday that it plans to nominate two more people for Pentagon posts. Retired Vice Adm. Joseph Kernan, a Navy SEAL who is now senior vice president for SAP National Security Services, would be undersecretary of defense for intelligence. Retired Marine Col. Guy Roberts, president of GBR Consulting, would be assistant defense secretary for nuclear, chemical and biological defense programs.
DEFEATING ISIS WITHOUT PUTIN: Wisconsin Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher argues in an opinion piece this morning in the Washington Examiner that the U.S. should resist the temptation of trying to defeat the Islamic State “on the cheap” by partnering with Russia in Syria. Gallagher argues Russia remains an adversary that works against U.S. interests in the Middle East, and around the world. “This is why it was a surprise when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the other week that American and Russian objectives in Syria were ‘exactly the same,’ ” Gallagher writes. “Why haven’t we learned from the mistakes of the last administration?” Read more here.
IT WAS RUSSIA’S FAULT: Tillerson’s team issued a pointed reminder on Monday that Russia bears responsibility for the deaths of 298 civilians killed when an airliner was downed over Ukraine in 2014, Joel Gehrke writes.
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down on July 17, 2014, as Ukrainian forces clashed with a separatist movement supported by Russian special forces in the eastern part of the country. Putin has denied responsibility for the incident, but Dutch investigators concluded that the plane was downed by a surface-to-air missile launched from “Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine [who] fired the surface-to-air BUK missile — brought into sovereign Ukrainian territory from Russia — that took down flight MH17,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Monday.
BAGHDADI DEAD OR ALIVE, DOES IT MATTER? Amid the latest conflicting reports that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is not dead, but alive and in hiding near Raqqa, the Pentagon says it doesn’t make much difference. “We don’t know one way or another if he’s alive or dead,” said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman. “Militarily speaking he’s already largely irrelevant because he’s not involved in any day-to-day decision making, or command and control that we can see.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed last week it had “confirmed information” that Baghdadi had been killed, but this week Syrian Kurds fighting near Raqqa said they think he’s still alive. “We certainly agree he’s better off dead than alive,” Davis said.
THE FIGHT FOR RAQQA: While the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces are making steady progress against the ISIS fighters in Raqqa, the attackers are taking heavy casualties as they advance into the old city section of the Islamic State’s self-declared capital. “We knew going in that Raqqa was going to be very hard,” Davis said, noting that ISIS has had more than two years to prepare for the assault. And he denied that the offensive had stalled in the face of fierce resistance from ISIS. “There is not a consistent degree of progress in any military campaign, it’s a stop and go effort by its very nature,” Davis said.
CIVCAS PUSHBACK: The Pentagon continues to push back on the long-running dispute with outside advocacy groups who allege the U.S. military’s system for tracking civilian casualties vastly undercounts the number of innocents who have died as a result of coalition airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. The latest claim comes from Airwars, an independent transparency group, which says by collating both government and open source reporting it believes the number deaths has jumped dramatically since Trump took office, and now has reached the point at which a dozen or more civilians die each day. At the Pentagon, Davis disputed that, insisting the U.S. military carefully reviews every claim, and holds itself to a very high standard.
“I would encourage all to take with a grain of salt when they see these reports, that profess to have a knowledge of civilian casualties,” Davis said. “I think there are well-meaning people and organizations and reporters who will look at reports that they see on social media, and ascribe truth to them, without taking the time to cross reference where we have struck.”
VISAS FOR GRANDMA AND GRANDPA: The Trump administration reportedly will allow grandparents of U.S. citizens from the six Muslim-majority countries named in Trump’s travel ban to obtain visas and enter the United States. The State Department has issued new guidance after a federal judge in Hawaii ruled against the Trump administration late last week. The Justice Department is appealing the ruling, but in the meantime the definition of “close family” allowed to enter the U.S. under the temporary travel ban will include not just grandparents, but also grandchildren, brothers-in-law, sisters-in-law, aunts and uncles, nephews and nieces, and first cousins.
MATTIS’ PENTAGON PEREGRINATIONS: Mattis has both delighted and confounded Pentagon reporters lately by just showing up at random times in the press area and conducting short impromptu on-the-record interactions with whatever reporters happen to be around. Asked for an explanation of why Mattis seemingly eschews the traditional briefing room news conference, where journalists know to show up and the secretary’s pronouncements are on camera, the Pentagon said essentially that Mattis is a low profile kinda guy.
“The secretary is someone who likes to communicate in small groups and not have a large public posture,” Davis said. “He often finds himself wandering around the building, as we’ve seen, twice on Friday as a matter of fact, and he’s always ready to come in here and say, ‘Hi.’ ” Asked if we might see Mattis behind the lectern in the briefing room any time soon, Davis said “I have nothing to announce right at the moment.”
THE RUNDOWN
Wall Street Journal: Unable to buy U.S. military drones, allies place orders with China
CNN: Exclusive: CNN witnesses US Navy’s drone-killing laser
Washington Post: Foreign-born recruits, promised citizenship by the Pentagon, flee the country to avoid deportation
USA Today: U.S. missile defense plans to zap North Korean threats
New York Times: South Korea proposes military talks with North at their border
Military Times: Senator wants answers on Army contracting issues
Defense News: Gulfstream mounts pro-bizjet blitz ahead of major Air Force competitions
USNI News: Cotton talks tough on Russian non-compliance to INF treaty
Stars and Stripes: US-backed Afghans reclaim key district in Helmand province from Taliban
War on the Rocks: The path to prototype warfare
UPI: Korean Aerospace offices raided in anti-corruption probe
Military Times: Pentagon: Al-Udeid Air Base still open, but U.S. prepared in case Qatar rift escalates
Calendar
TUESDAY | JULY 18
7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, commanding general, Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and Army Forces Strategic Command, provides remarks at an Association of the U.S. Army Institute of Land Warfare Breakfast.
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Seventh Annual CSIS South China Sea Conference: Renewing American leadership in the Asia-Pacific with Sen. Cory Gardner. csis.org
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Nomination of Gen. Paul Selva to be re-appointed to vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs Of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Central Asia and U.S. foreign policy at a great power crossroads. atlanticcouncil.org
2:30 p.m. Dirksen G-50. Nominations of Matthew Donovan to be Air Force undersecretary; Lucian Niemeyer to be assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations and environment; Ellen Lord to be defense under secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics; and John H. Gibson II to be deputy chief management officer of the Defense Department. armed-services.senate.gov
4 p.m. Russell 222. Options and considerations for achieving a 355-ship Navy from former Reagan administration officials including John Lehman, former Navy secretary. armed-services.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | JULY 19
1800 Jefferson Davis Hwy. Special topic breakfast series with Joel Szabat, executive director of the U.S. Maritime Administration.
9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A 21st century Truman Doctrine? U.S. foreign policy discussion with Sen. Tim Kaine. brookings.edu
9 a.m. Hart 216. Nomination of Susan Gordon to be principal deputy director of national intelligence at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Robert P. Storch to be inspector general of the National Security Agency. intelligence.senate.gov
12:15 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. South Asia’s evolving strategic doctrines. stimson.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2200. Subcommittee markup of the Counterterrorism Screening and Assistance Act of 2017. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2:15 p.m. Rayburn 2200. Saudi Arabia’s troubling educational curriculum. foreignaffairs.house.gov
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Russia sanctions revisited panel discussion with retired ambassadors Daniel Fried and Richard Morningstar. atlanticcouncil.org
4:15 p.m. Dirksen 419. The collapse of the rule of law in Venezuela and what the United States and the international community can do to restore democracy. foreign.senate.gov
THURSDAY | JULY 20
9:30 a.m. Dirksen 419. Kay Bailey Hutchison to be the permanent U.S. representative on the NATO council. foreign.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The dangers of the looming constituent assembly in Venezuela and why the international community must act. csis.org
FRIDAY | JULY 21
8:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Venezuela on the edge and the time for new international action. atlanticcouncil.org
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Examining the geopolitical impact of the 4th Estate. csis.org
MONDAY | JULY 24
2 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Release of the report “Higher, Heavier, Farther, and Now Undetectable? Bombers: Long-Range Force Projection in the 21st Century” with Jerry Hendrix. cnas.org
TUESDAY | JULY 25
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Future of vertical lift and forging a new paradigm with David Dowling of Northrop Grumman; Keith Flail with Bell Helicopter; Richard Koucheravy with Sikorsky; Dave Schreck of Rockwell Collins Government Systems; H. Eric “Delta” Burke of Harris Corporation; and Col. Robert Freeland with the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics. csis.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Lessons from Rome: Civic virtue and the empire’s decline with Hugh Liebert, associate professor at the United States Military Academy. heritage.org
2:30 p.m. Russell 222. Options and considerations for achieving a 355-ship Navy from naval analysts. armed-services.senate.gov
