Daily on Defense — Feb. 10, 2017 — Breaking the stalemate

Nicholson said although the Afghan forces have been losing some ground to the Taliban, his separate U.S. counter-terrorism mission, dubbed “Freedom’s Sentinel,” has been a roaring success, inflicting severe losses on ISIS and al Qaeda terrorists. “This year alone we have reduced their fighters by half, their territory by two thirds, we’ve killed their leader, in fact their top 12 leaders and continue to disrupt their operation,” Nicholson said. But while he testified he does not need any new authorities, or even more U.S. special ops forces, under questioning by Sen. Lindsey Graham, he did concede if the Taliban were to be designated a “terrorist organization” it would allow him to take the gloves off. Nicholson said he would “absolutely” use new authorities to directly target the Taliban. Asked by Graham if that would “change the momentum on the battlefield?” Nicholson replied, “It would help, sir.”

THE PAKISTAN PROBLEM: Nicholson didn’t mince words when it came Pakistan’s role in providing aid and comfort to the enemy by allowing Taliban fighters to seek refuge across its border with Afghanistan. “Sir, it’s very difficult to succeed on the battlefield when your enemy enjoys external support and safe haven.” Nicholson testified that while on the one hand, Pakistan had conducted helpful missions in its largely ungoverned tribal regions, Pakistan along with Russia and Iran “continue to legitimize and support the Taliban,” while undermining the efforts of the Afghan government. Nicholson indicated he would welcome the Trump administration getting tough with Pakistan to end the duplicity. But Nicholson made a point of saying he enjoys a “constructive relationship” with Pakistan’s Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, who coincidentally was having a phone conversation yesterday with Mattis, pledging to “counter all militant groups operating in its territory,” according to the Pentagon

PHONY TROOP CAPS: Nicholson also complained about the artificial limits on the number of U.S. military personnel he can have in Afghanistan at one time, currently about 8,500. The “Force Management Levels” force him to do some dumb things to get more trigger-pullers into the fight. For instance, he told the story of how the 1st Infantry Division combat aviation brigade deployed with helicopters and pilots while their mechanics were left behind at Fort Riley. That had a double whammy. It cost more to replace them with private contractors, while the mechanics suffered from reduced readiness while sitting on their butts back in Kansas.

FUN FACT TO KNOW AND TELL: “Of the 98 U.S. designated terrorist groups globally, 20 operate in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region along with three violent extremist organizations. This is the highest concentration of terrorist groups anywhere in the world,” Nicholson said. Neither country was among the seven included in President Trump’s travel ban, which the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals yesterday ruled cannot be enforced while legal arguments continue.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.

Want to learn more about Daily on Defense? See our introductory video here.

ONE PHONE CALL, ONE-CHINA: The White House says after a lengthy and “extremely cordial” phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump told Xi what he wanted to hear. “The two leaders discussed numerous topics and President Trump agreed, at the request of President Xi, to honor our One-China policy,” the White House statement said. That for the moment de-escalates the potential for conflict with China, which considers the One-China policy inviolate.  

B-1s TO GUAM: At the same time, the U.S. military announced the deployment of B-1 long-range bombers from Texas to Guam to begin a regular rotation. The Air Force notes that since 2004, the U.S. has kept heavy bombers, including B-1s, B-2s or B-52s, forward deployed at Andersen Air Force Base in support of the U.S. Pacific Command’s continuous bomber presence mission.

CLOSE ENCOUNTER: PACOM confirms what it called an “unsafe” encounter between a U.S. Navy P-3C Orion surveillance plane and a Chinese aircraft over the South China Sea. The planes came within 1,000 feet of each other Wednesday, near the contested Scarborough Shoal. The military said the P-3C “was on a routine mission operating in accordance with international law.” It was April 1, 2001, when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. Navy EP-3E Aries II, forcing the damaged American spy plane to land on China’s Hainan Island.

NEW START ALARM: Reports that the president rebuffed Russian President Vladimir Putin over the New START nuclear weapons treaty in their phone call last weekend has alarmed arms control advocates who said the treaty benefits both countries. Reuters quotes sources as saying when Putin raised the possibility of extending the 2010 treaty, “Trump paused to ask his aides in an aside what the treaty was,” and then “told Putin the treaty was one of several bad deals negotiated by the Obama administration.”

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen said Trump not knowing what the New START treaty is demonstrates a dangerous level of ignorance. “It’s impossible to overstate the negligence of the President of the United States not knowing basic facts about nuclear policy and arms control,” said Shaheen. “If this report is true, President Trump should immediately review the provisions of the New START Treaty with his advisors and Cabinet. The President’s reported conversation with President Putin directly undermines testimony delivered by his Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense as their nominations were considered.”

In response to the report, former Rep. John Tierney, executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, issued a statement: “The New START agreement is one of history’s more important arms control treaties. It caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads the United States and Russia can deploy and facilitates nuclear transparency between both superpowers,” he said. “Without this treaty, Russia would have no limits on its nuclear weapons program and, accordingly, American national security would be severely weakened.”

IRAN’S FLAGRANT FUSILLADE: A new report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies concludes that Tehran has conducted up to 14 ballistic missile launches since signing the Iran nuclear deal with world powers in 2015. The FDD said its research “illustrates Iran’s intent to continue advancing its ballistic missile program — the likeliest delivery vehicle for a nuclear weapon, according to the U.S. intelligence community.” Last week, the Trump administration announced new sanctions against Iran for its more recent missile tests. The report’s author, Behnam Ben Taleblu, writes “These missiles also bolster Iranian deterrence, providing Tehran with an umbrella of impunity that it uses to further its aggressive regional designs.” Even though the nuclear agreement itself does not directly address ballistic missiles,” he notes, “Iran’s actions violate the UN Security Council resolution endorsing the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action].”

AMERICANS IN IRAN: The Trump administration’s get-tough approach to Iran, including an executive order attempting to halt travelers and immigrants coming from that country, has Democratic critics even more worried about the fate of American citizens and others with strong U.S. ties imprisoned in Iran. In the last remaining weeks of the Obama administration, a cadre of White House officials had reportedly hoped they could secure one last deal with Iran and bring home at least some of the five hostages with strong U.S. ties being held there.

But hopes started fading for the hostages’ release after Trump’s executive order. Tehran responded in kind, putting a stop to any U.S. citizens traveling to Iran for the foreseeable future. What’s more, in the wake of an Iranian missile test, the administration imposed new tariffs on Teheran. And this week, Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Flynn put “Iran on notice” that the U.S. would no longer tolerate violations of international agreements.

IS FLYNN IN TROUBLE? The Washington Post, quoting current and former U.S. officials, reported last night that Flynn privately discussed U.S. sanctions against Russia with Sergey Kislyak, Moscow’s ambassador to the U.N. in the month before Trump took office. That, the paper said, could amount to an “inappropriate and potentially illegal signal to the Kremlin” that it could expect relief from Obama administration sanctions. The Post said the FBI is investigating, but includes this sentence: “Several officials emphasized that while sanctions were discussed, they did not see evidence that Flynn had an intent to convey an explicit promise to take action after the inauguration.”

YEMEN BRIEFING: A bipartisan group of four senators wants the Trump administration to give a classified briefing into the raid in Yemen that left a Navy SEAL and several civilians dead, Kyle Feldscher writes. Sens. Chris Murphy, Rand Paul, Al Franken and Mike Lee sent a letter to Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Michael Dempsey, acting director of national intelligence, asking for a classified briefing on the Jan. 28 raid.

“We write today with serious concerns about U.S. policy in Yemen and to urgently request a classified briefing regarding our actions and objectives there,” the senators wrote in a letter. “The situation in Yemen remains complex, with an ongoing civil war and humanitarian crisis — further complicated by U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaign there — as well as a growing terrorist threat from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.”

TRUMP VS. MCCAIN: Trump went after Arizona Sen. John McCain on Twitter Thursday morning for criticizing the Yemen raid, Kyle Feldscher writes. “Sen. McCain should not be talking about the success or failure of a mission to the media. Only emboldens the enemy!” Trump tweeted. “He’s been losing so … long he doesn’t know how to win anymore, just look at the mess our country is in – bogged down in conflict all over the place. Our hero … Ryan died on a winning mission (according to General Mattis), not a ‘failure.’ Time for the U.S. to get smart and start winning again!”

The day before, White House spokesman Sean Spicer went further, saying, “I think anybody who undermines the success of that raid, owes an apology and [does a] disservice to the life of Chief Owens.”

HERE’S McCAIN’S ‘MIC DROP’ RESPONSE TO SPICER: “Many years ago when I was in prison in North Vietnam, there was an attempt to rescue the POWs. Unfortunately the prison had been evacuated, but the brave men who took on that mission and risked their lives in an effort to rescue us prisoners of war were genuine American heroes. Because the mission failed did not in any way diminish their bravery and courage and willingness to sacrifice for their fellow American who were being held captive. Mr. Spicer should know that story.”

CLAPPER’S CONCERNS: In his first interview since retiring as the director of national intelligence, James Clapper told CNN’s Jim Sciutto that the president’s travel ban not only hurts the U.S. image abroad, but also is counterproductive in the fight against terrorism. “I do worry about those countries in question with whom we do deal and who are reliable partners,” Clapper said. “I also worry about this creating a recruiting tool for the extremists, that they will point to this proof that there is, in fact, a war on all Muslims.” Clapper also defended his call to the then-president-elect, after Trump publicly criticized the intelligence community and made a comparison to Nazi Germany. “I was very concerned, as many in the intelligence community, quite upset about the inference of likening the intelligence community to the Nazis,” Clapper told CNN. “I felt obliged to call the President-elect and appeal to his higher instincts and to make sure he understood what our motives were, what are — what impelled the intelligence community to support the commander in chief, and to keep him as informed as possible, particularly if it involved some jeopardy to him.”

RISING STAR, LOSES ONE: As one of his last acts before departing the Pentagon Jan. 20, then-Army Secretary Eric Fanning took away one of Maj. Gen. Ronald Lewis’ two stars. Lewis, you may recall, was a rising star in the Army who held the prestigious post as senior military assistant to Defense Secretary Ash Carter. That was until he had what at the Pentagon is euphemistically called “a zipper problem.” Lewis was reprimanded for having inappropriate  relationships with several women while traveling on official business with the secretary. He was also found to have misused his government travel charge card at strip clubs, made false official statements, and generally engaged “in conduct unbecoming an officer and a gentleman” on multiple occasions. Under federal law, officers retire at the highest grade in which they have served satisfactorily. The loss of a star means Lewis will retire as a brigadier general, and take a commensurate hit in his military pension.

WAR AND PEAS – ‘PRAISE THE LORD AND PASS THE ANTIPASTO’: It’s billed as the “largest culinary competition in North America.” More than 200 competitors will gather next month at Fort Lee, Virginia, for the annual Military Culinary Arts Competitive Training Event. The competition has been going for more than 40 years, and designed to improve readiness by improving the culinary skills of participants. It’s got to be better than MREs.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Trump’s fights with McCain threaten to divide Republicans

Defense One: Why Did Trump Pick a Fight with Putin Over the Nuclear Weapons Treaty?

Washington Post: Pentagon journal explores what could happen if a president called for Muslim internment camps

Stars and Stripes: Former NATO General Warns Against Russia Partnership In Syria

Military Times: A U.S. soldier was wounded today In Sangin, highlighting a tragic irony about the Afghanistan war

USNI News: Marines Seek to Arm MV-22 Osprey, Improve Harvest Hawk System

Military.com: Corps Wants 12K More Marines to Boost Cyber, Info Ops, ISR

UPI: U.S. Marines set to receive new ultra-light Utility Task Vehicles

Defense One: US Counterterrorism Strategy Must Be About More than ISIS

Wall Street Journal: The Trump Effect: The President’s Wild Start Churns Domestic Politics Around The World

Calendar

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 10

9 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Tom Mahnken, the president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, discusses the U.S. defense strategy against China. Csbaonline.org

10 a.m. The Pentagon. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis meets with German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen at the Pentagon.

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13

10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. H.E. Khaled Alyemany, the United Nations permanent representative of Yemen, speaks about challenges to the Yemeni peace process. atlanticcouncil.org

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14

9:30 a.m. Senate Visitors Center 217. Bob Work, the deputy defense secretary, testifies at a closed Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on long-term defense challenges. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. A panel of experts testifies at the House Armed Services Committee about the evolving threat of terrorism and strategies to counter it. armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Think tank experts testify on the path forward to defeat terrorism in Syria. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2:30 p.m. Russell 222. The top enlisted service members in all four branches testify about family readiness programs at a hearing in the Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee. armed-services.senate.gov

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 15

9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of analysts talks about challenges and opportunities in the U.S.-Iraqi relationship. wilsoncenter.org

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Eliot Cohen, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, discusses his new book on the limits of soft power. heritage.org

5:30 p.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. Robert Kaplan, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, speaks at a launch event for his new book about how geography shapes America’s role in the world. cnas.org

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16

9 a.m. Rayburn 2212. Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan provides the House Armed Services Committee with an update on the F-35 program. armedservices.house.gov

4:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a debate on European missile defense for NATO. csis.org