Outgunned vs. undermanned, both sides face challenges as Russia seeks to capture more of Ukraine

But despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public statement that his front-line troops need to “rest and build up their combat capabilities,” after their conquest of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, it appears Russian forces are already moving on to their next objective: Donetsk, the other province that makes up the Donbas.

The governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, is urging the province’s more than 350,000 residents to evacuate, so Ukrainian forces can take up defensive positions, according to the Associated Press.

“Russian forces from the Eastern and Western Groups of Forces are likely now around 16 km north from the town of Sloviansk,” one of the cities on the edge of Donetsk, according to the latest intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry. “There is a realistic possibility that the battle for Sloviansk will be the next key contest in the struggle for the Donbas.”

RUSSIAN FORCES MOVING INTO DONETSK AFTER PUTIN CELEBRATES ‘MAJOR VICTORY’

‘THE RUSSIAN ARMY DOES NOT TAKE ANY BREAKS’: In recent days, Russian missiles — many of which are older Soviet-era missiles with crude guidance systems — have rained down on cities and towns across the country, terrorizing the population.

“In continuously striking civilians in towns and cities across Ukraine, often far from any fighting, the Kremlin has shown it has one objective, and one objective only: attempt to gain through fear what it cannot achieve on the battlefield — the subjugation of Ukraine,” said U.S. Amb. Michael Carpenter in a speech in Vienna.

“Russia’s forces launched at least 100 missiles alone the last weekend of June, striking civilian infrastructure across 17 of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts, killing and injuring men, women, and children as they peacefully slept, shopped, and worked, often hundreds of miles from any front lines,” he said.

“You should not look for logic in the actions of terrorists. The Russian army does not take any breaks. It has one task — to take people’s lives, to intimidate people,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address, saying the need for missile defense systems is the “maximum task” to provide “basic security” for Ukrainians.

“We have not reduced and will not reduce our diplomatic activity for a single day to obtain modern anti-missile systems for Ukraine in sufficient quantity,” he said.

RUSSIAN MILITARY LAUNCHED ‘AT LEAST 100 MISSILES’ AT END OF JUNE WITH STRIKES UP

PUTIN EYES BIGGER PRIZE: An analysis by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War concludes that Russia “has significant territorial aspirations beyond the Donbas.”

Citing statements from Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, a close Putin confidant who indicated that the Kremlin does not consider recent battlefield gains sufficient, the ISW says its “ongoing assessment” is that Putin will continue to push for advances beyond Donetsk and Luhansk, and is preparing for “a protracted war with the intention of taking much larger portions of Ukraine.”

“Patrushev’s statement significantly increases the burden on those who suggest that some compromise ceasefire or even peace based on limited additional Russian territorial gains is possible, even if it were acceptable to Ukraine or desirable for the West (neither of which is the case),” the ISW said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE

Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hosts a ceremony at Conmy Hall, Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall, Virginia, to induct the newest Medal of Honor recipients into the Pentagon’s Hall of Heroes.

The recipients were honored Tuesday at the White House after their previous awards for gallantry were upgraded to the nation’s highest military honor. One of the medals was awarded posthumously to Staff Sgt. Edward Kaneshiro, who died in combat in 1966. The other honorees are Spc. 5 Dwight Birdwell, Spc. 5 Dennis Fujii, and retired Maj. John Duffy.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley will also attend the event, which will be livestreamed at 10 a.m. at https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events

BIDEN AWARDS MEDAL OF HONOR TO FOUR VIETNAM WAR VETERANS

HAPPENING THIS WEEK: Secretary of State Antony Blinken leaves today for a meeting of the Group of 20 foreign ministers in Bali, Indonesia, the State Department announced yesterday. Blinken plans to press his fellow foreign ministers on the threat to the international order posed by Russia’s war against Ukraine.

But unlike the G-7, whose members are all U.S. allies, Russia and China will be in attendance at the G-20, so much of the discussion will center on “food and energy insecurity,” including U.S. efforts to get blockaded Ukrainian grain to world markets.

Blinken will have a meeting on the “margins” of the gathering with his Chinese counterpart Foreign Minister Wang Yi, but while he will be in the same room with Sergey Lavrov for the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, there are no plans for a one-on-one with the Russian foreign minister.

“The time is not right for the Secretary to engage with Foreign Minister Lavrov,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price in a trip briefing for reporters yesterday. “We would like to see the Russians be serious about diplomacy. We have not seen that yet. We would like to have the Russians give us a reason to meet on a bilateral basis with them, with Foreign Minister Lavrov, but the only thing we have seen emanate from Moscow is more brutality and aggression against the people and country of Ukraine.”

BY THE NUMBERS: The latest tally of U.S. military aid to Ukraine puts the value of the total assistance provided since President Joe Biden took office at $7.6 billion, with $6.9 billion since the beginning of the Feb. 24 invasion.

A fact sheet published by the Pentagon lists everything that is committed to Ukraine, including some items that have not yet been delivered, such as two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), made by Raytheon and Norway’s Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace, which are being purchased by the U.S. for Ukraine.

Here’s a partial list:

• Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems
• Over 6,500 Javelin anti-armor systems
• Over 20,000 other anti-armor systems
• Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems
• 126 155mm Howitzers and up to 410,000 155mm artillery rounds
• 36,000 105mm artillery rounds
• 126 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers
• 19 Tactical Vehicles to recover equipment
• Eight High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition
• Two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
• 20 Mi-17 helicopters
• Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles
• 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
• Over 10,000 grenade launchers and small arms
• Over 59,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition
• 75,000 sets of body armor and helmets
• 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems
• Laser-guided rocket systems
• Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems
• Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels
• 26 counter-artillery radars
• Four counter-mortar radars
• Four air surveillance radars
• Two harpoon coastal defense systems
• 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats

SPORTING BOYCOTT: Sports ministers from 35 countries, including the United States, have reaffirmed their March statement in which they call for Russian and Belarusian sport national governing bodies to be suspended from international sport federations because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable war of choice against Ukraine, facilitated by the Belarusian government, is abhorrent and a flagrant breach of its international obligations. Respect for human rights and peaceful relations between nations form the foundation of international sport,” said the statement issued yesterday.

“Individuals closely aligned to the Russian and Belarusian states, including but not limited to government officials, should be removed from positions of influence on international sport federations, such as boards and organizing committees,” the statement said, adding that national and international sports organizations “should consider suspending the broadcasting of sports competitions into Russia and Belarus.”

AP REOPENS GAZA BUREAU DESTROYED BY ISRAELI AIRSTRIKE: It’s been over a year since an Israeli airstrike leveled the Associated Press news bureau in Gaza, and the news agency announced yesterday it was reopening.

“Twelve AP staffers and freelancers were inside on May 15, 2021, when the Israeli military telephoned a warning, giving occupants of the building one hour to evacuate,” the Associated Press said in a press release. “In the days and weeks following the airstrike, the Israeli government claimed Hamas had been operating inside the building. AP has repeatedly pressed for any evidence to be made public, but none has been provided.”

“The Associated Press has operated in Gaza for more than half a century and remains committed to telling the story of Gaza and its people,” said Daisy Veerasingham, AP President and CEO.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Russian forces moving into Donetsk after Putin celebrates ‘major victory’

Washington Examiner: Russian military launched ‘at least 100 missiles’ at end of June with strikes up

Washington Examiner: Cosmonauts aboard International Space Station celebrate ‘liberation’ of Ukrainian territory

Washington Examiner: Putin urges military pause after capturing Lysychansk

Washington Examiner: NATO leaders sign accession protocols for Finland and Sweden

Washington Examiner: Biden awards Medal of Honor to four Vietnam War veterans

Washington Examiner: Following Hutchinson bombshells, next House Jan. 6 panel hearing set for July 12

Washington Examiner: GOP senators worry provisions in China competitiveness bill not tough enough

Washington Examiner: Teenager raises over $77,000, builds veterans memorial for Eagle Scout Project

AP: High cost of Russian gains in Ukraine may limit new advance

New York Times: Ukraine says it used a U.S.-supplied rocket launcher to strike 40 miles behind Russian lines.

Wall Street Journal: Russian Army Turns Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Plant Into A Military Base

Washington Post: After invasion of Ukraine, a reckoning on Russian influence in Austria

Washington Post: On the front lines, Ukrainian women are often the first responders

CNBC: Chinese Company’s Purchase of North Dakota Farmland Raises National Security Concerns in D.C.

New York Times: Export Bans Are at Heart Of U.S. Plan To Foil China

Reuters: Philippines’ Marcos Wants ‘To Resolve The Conflicts’ With Beijing, Says He’s Open To Working With China’s Military

Reuters: S.Korea’s Yoon Warns Of Stern Retaliation In Case Of N.Korea’s Provocation

Military Times: Pentagon Ends Blocking Of Abortion-Related Sites On Computer Networks

USNI News: Body of Hershel ‘Woody’ Williams Will Lie in State in U.S. Capitol

Defense News: New Leader Takes Over At F-35 Program Office

Air Force Magazine: Schmidt Succeeds Fick as New F-35 PEO; Two USAF Directors in a Row May Signal JPO Break-Up

Air Force Magazine: New Generation of Rockets Queue Up to Launch From Florida Facilities in 2022

Air Force Magazine: Valiant Shield Adds ACE Partners in the Pacific, Tests Dispersion, MQ-9 ‘Drop-In’

19fortyfive.com: Putin Has a Problem: Russia Could Have 600 Casualties a Day in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Sweden’s New Blekinge-Class Submarine Could Be Russia’s Nightmare

19fortyfive.com: A-10 Warthog Refueled And Rearmed For The First Time On A U.S. Highway

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Russia’s Brutal War in the Donbas Proves Ukraine Can’t Win

National Interest: Opinion: No, the West Should Not Appease Erdogan

The Cipher Brief: Analysis: The Complex Reality of Cyber War and Ukraine

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | JULY 6

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Active Denial: A Roadmap to a More Effective, Stabilizing, and Sustainable U.S. Defense Strategy in Asia,” with Mike Mochizuki, Japan-U.S. relations chair at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs; Eric Heginbotham, principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies; Rachel Esplin Odell, former research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; and Michael Swaine, director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft https://quincyinst.org/event/active-denial-a-roadmap

THURSDAY | JULY 7

11 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual event: “Defense and the Future of War,” with Shashank Joshi, defense editor, The Economist https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

1 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Why Foreign Talent is Critical to National Security,” with former Acting Deputy Defense Secretary Christine Fox, senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory; and former U.S. Central Command Commander retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel, president and CEO of Business Executives for National Security https://www.brookings.edu/events/why-foreign-talent

1:30 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Defense Disruptors Series: A Conversation with Gen. David Berger,” https://www.eventbrite.com/e/defense-disruptors-series

FRIDAY | JULY 8

Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “China’s Role in Russian Energy: What’s Changed Since February 24th?” with Erica Downs, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy; Edward Chow, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Energy Security and Climate Change Program; Amy Myers Jaffe, managing director of Tufts University’s Climate Policy Lab; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/chinas-role

TUESDAY | JULY 19

Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Aspen Strategy Group three-day (19-22) Aspen Security Forum with White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan; Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown; CIA Director William Burns; Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond; U.S. Northern Commander Gen. Glen VanHerck; former Defense Secretary Robert Gates; former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander U.S. Special Operations Command; Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va.; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Kay Bailey Hutchison, former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and others. https://www.aspensecurityforum.org

WEDNESDAY | JULY 27

Fort Bragg, North Carolina — Association of the U.S. Army two-day, in-person “Warfighter Summit and Exposition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Alejandro Villanueva, former Army Ranger and former offensive tackle for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens; as well as leaders from Army Forces Command, the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division. Register at https://meetings.ausa.org/warfighter/index.cfm