V-I DAY COMES: Over the weekend, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi officially declared victory over the Islamic State in his country after three years of deadly combat. “Our forces fully control the Iraqi-Syrian border, and thus we can announce the end of the war against Daesh,” Abadi said, using the Arabic name for ISIS. “This victory was achieved … when Iraqis united to face a heinous enemy that didn’t want us to see this day,” Abadi said. “They wanted to return us back to the Dark Ages.” In Baghdad yesterday, Abadi declared Dec. 10 a new national holiday, and presided over a military parade of troops, tanks and helicopters, all broadcast on Iraqi television.
The American general who commands the counter-ISIS campaign issued a statement underscoring that ISIS remains a threat. “The Coalition congratulates the Government of Iraq on its announcement of the liberation of Iraq from Daesh,” said said Lt. Gen. Paul Funk, commander of Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve. “Much work remains, and we will continue to work by, with and through our Iraqi partners to ensure the enduring defeat of Daesh and prevent its ability to threaten civilization, regionally and globally.”
THE HEAVY PRICE: The victory over ISIS in Iraq came at a steep price. Thousands of Iraqi troops died in the methodical campaign to liberate cities across Iraq, many of which were left in ruins. The cost of rebuilding those cities is expected to exceed $150 billion. Thousands of innocent civilians were also killed, hundreds as a result of U.S. or coalition airstrikes, despite what the U.S. called the “most accurate air campaign in the history of warfare.” That has not blunted criticism of the U.S. bombing, which human right advocates insist killed far more civilians than the U.S. admits. It’s a PR war that keeps the U.S. military on the defensive.
WHAT NEXT? The rise of ISIS was fueled in part by the alienation of Iraq’s Sunni minority, and many observers believe the key to Iraq’s future is reconciliation. Abadi is credited for being more inclusive than his predecessor, Nouri al-Malaki, but next year’s national elections are seen as a crucial test of whether Sunnis will feel they are a part of Iraq’s future.
Now that the ISIS threat has faded, the U.S. is concerned about Iran’s influence. Iranian-backed Shiite militias played a big part in the liberation of some Iraq cities, and some militia leaders are expected to run for parliament in the May 2018 elections. The U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, Douglas Silliman, says Iran’s influence is problematic:
“Iran simply does not respect the sovereignty of its neighbors,” Silliman told the AP. “The Iranians have — to some extent — assisted the government of Iraq in defeating ISIS. But frankly, I have not seen the Iranians donating money for humanitarian assistance, I have not seen them contributing to the U.N. stabilization program.”
PROTESTS OVER JERUSALEM DECLARATION: Across Jerusalem and the West Bank, protests continued over the weekend and into today, as thousands of Palestinians expressed anger over President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel. Four protesters were killed by Israeli Defense Forces, and hundreds of others have been hurt.
While the declaration has been criticized as counterproductive by America’s allies and adversaries alike, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley defended the move on Fox News Sunday, saying that Trump was elected on a promise to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. “This is the will of the American people. The president wanted to follow through. Presidents Bush, Clinton and Obama all said they were for it but never did anything about it,” Haley told Fox New host Chris Wallace. “And this president said it’s time. And we think this is actually going to help us fastball the peace process going forward.”
When Wallace pointed out that Trump’s declaration was “being criticized from all corners,” including British Prime Minister Theresa May and Pope Francis, Haley was undeterred. “We don’t do things just to please every other country in the world. We do things to advance the ball. And that’s what the president did with this. He said, this is time that we acknowledge reality. It’s been 22 years in the making. It was time.” And Haley echoed an argument advanced by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that this does not amount to taking sides in the Middle East peace process. “We didn’t set any parameters. We didn’t say this was the final status. What we said is, we’re going to do like we do in every other country and we’re going to put the embassy in its capital and we’re going to continue and are going to continue the fact that we are as committed to the peace process as we’ve ever been before.”
On ABC, Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland agreed that declaring Jerusalem the capital of Israel was in fact an acknowledgement of reality. “In 1995, Congress enacted a statute that said the same. So I think the announcement itself was not anything that — that is news,” Cardin said. “But what the president should have done is done it in the right diplomatic way. It should have been done in a way to advance the peace process or a two-state solution. Instead, the president just made the announcement, did not take advantage of that in regards to the Israelis and offered the Palestinians very little. I think that was a mistake, the manner in which he did it, but clearly Jerusalem is the capital of Israel.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: The United States, South Korea and Japan are staging two days of “missile tracking drills” starting today, according to an announcement from Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force. The exercise comes one week after a major air combat exercise, involving U.S. stealth aircraft, which North Korea denounced as a provocative act that brings the region “to the brink of nuclear war.”
RUSSIA WITHDRAWING: As fighting also winds down in Syria, Russia is also declaring victory and preparing to go home. The AP reports Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Hemeimeem air base in Syria’s coastal province of Latakia and announced a partial pullout of Russian forces from the country. Speaking to the Russian troops at the base, Putin said he had ordered the military to withdraw a “significant part” of the Russian contingent in Syria. He added in remarks carried by Russian news agencies that “if the terrorists again raise their heads, we will deal such blows to them they have never seen.”
U.S. CAN MAKE NEW CRUISE MISSILES, TOO: Meanwhile, the State Department is officially putting Russia on notice the United States will retaliate to Putin’s flagrant violations of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by researching the development of a new American ground-based cruise missile system, which if produced, would also violate the Cold War agreement.
“Despite repeated U.S. efforts to engage the Russian Federation on this issue, Russian officials have so far refused to discuss the violation in any meaningful way or refute the information provided by the United States,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Friday.
Nauert issued that message on the 30th anniversary of the INF Treaty, which bans the deployment of intermediate-range cruise missiles. U.S. officials have complained since 2014 that Russia is violating the pact by developing — and, in recent months, deploying — a banned cruise missile system. In the latest National Defense Authorization Act, Congress authorized $50 million to spend on researching programs that could defend against the new cruise missiles, as well as new ground-launched U.S. cruise missiles.
YEMEN TERRORIST TARGETED: U.S. Central Command announced Friday that it killed five members of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in airstrikes in Yemen last month, including two senior AQAP leaders. Mujahid al-Adani, identified as an AQAP leader in Shabwah, was killed in the Nov. 20 strikes, along with facilitator Abu Layth al-Sanaani and three other associates, according to a Central Command release. The U.S. says its latest offensive in Yemen’s Shabwah Governorate has forced AQAP to consolidate within the northern and eastern portions of the Abyan and eastern al-Bayda governorates.
RACIAL HOAX: An African-American sailor has received punishment after an investigation found he staged the vandalism of his own bunk, which included racist writing, according to a report Friday. Marquie Little, 27, who was assigned to the USS George H.W. Bush, was disciplined and counseled by his unit after the Naval Criminal Investigative Service and command officials concluded he was not the target of hate writing by someone else.
Little will continue to serve in his unit and carry out his regular duties. “After a thorough investigation was conducted with the assistance of NCIS, several indicators supported the conclusion that the incident was staged,” Naval Air Force Atlantic spokesman Cmdr. Dave Hecht said told Military.com on Friday.
POWELL LEAVING: Trump’s deputy national security adviser, Dina Powell, will leave her post in the administration by early next year, the White House said on Friday. “Dina Powell has been a key, trusted adviser in this administration. She has always planned to serve one year before returning home to New York, where she will continue to support the president’s agenda and work on Middle East policy,” White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement. “She will serve in the administration until early next year.”
Powell took over as deputy national security adviser in March amid the shake-up on Trump’s National Security Council that followed after Michael Flynn, former national security adviser, was fired in February. She began her tenure in the administration as an economic aide. “With the pending departure of Dina Powell, we are losing an invaluable member of the President’s national security team,” said Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in a statement late Friday. “I personally appreciate Dina’s partnership and contributions to the mission of the Department of Defense.”
THE RUNDOWN
Washington Post: Microbes by the ton: Officials see weapons threat as North Korea gains biotech expertise
Reuters: China, Taiwan Spar Over Chinese Diplomat’s Invasion Threat
Politico: Trump approves new Russia sanctions for violating Cold War arms pact
New York Times: Pentagon Foresees at Least Two More Years of Combat in Somalia
Wall Street Journal: In One Corner Of Afghanistan, America Is Beating Islamic State
Foreign Policy: U.S. Diplomat’s Resignation Signals Wider Exodus From State Department
Marine Corps Times: Marine Corps investigation faults F-35 program after in-flight fire
Fox News: Netanyahu slams Turkey’s Erdogan for claiming Israel is ‘terrorist state’ that ‘kills children’
Washington Post: IT companies press Pentagon to pick more than one winner in cloud competition
The Atlantic: Trump’s National Security Strategy is Decidedly Non-Trumpian
CNN: Nuclear destruction ‘one impulsive tantrum away,’ Nobel winners warn
Washington Post: This is how nuclear war with North Korea would unfold
Navy Times: US Navy Secretary: The Path To Restoring Naval Readiness
Defense News: Pentagon Comptroller: Using The Audit To Drive Change
Calendar
MONDAY | DEC. 11
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. U.S.-Korea defense acquisition and security cooperation. csis.org
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Trump’s Jerusalem Decision: Implications and Consequences. Wilsoncenter.org
11:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Deputy Undersecretary of the Air Force for International Affairs Heidi Grant participates in a panel on promoting ROK-U.S. cooperation in the aerospace industry at the Center for Strategic and International Studies U.S-Korea Defense Acquisition and Security Cooperation conference. Live streamed on the CSIS webpage.
5:30 p.m. Book discussion of Anatomy of Failure: Why America Loses Every War it Starts, with author Harlan Ullman. atlanticcouncil.org
TUESDAY | DEC. 12
8 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. CTTSO advanced planning briefing for industry. ndia.org
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S.-UK Relations in a changing world with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, White House national security advisor. policyexchange.org.uk
9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Jerusalem: The Fatal Blow to Trump’s “Ultimate Deal”? press.org
9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Inquiry on North Korean Political Prisons. press.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. 2017 Atlantic Council-Korea Foundation Forum with Wilbur Ross, secretary of commerce. atlanticcouncil.org
12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Yemen: A country in crisis. cfr.org
1 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Live Power Problems podcast recording: “All I Want for Christmas is an F-35: Trump, the Generals and the Defense Budget.” cato.org
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Revisiting lessons of the Vietnam War. brookings.edu
5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book launch of “Anatomy of Failure: Why America Loses Every War It Starts.” csis.org
WEDNESDAY | DEC. 13
8 a.m. 1800 Jefferson Davis Hwy. Special topic breakfast with Adm. Paul Zukunft, commandant of the Coast Guard. navyleague.org
8:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Hot Topic: Army Cyber professional development forum with Lt. Gen. Paul Nakasone, commanding general of U.S. Army Cyber Command. ausa.org
9:30 a.m. Dirksen 419. Using force: Strategic, political and legal considerations with Stephen Hadley, Christine Wormuth and John Bellinger. foreign.senate.gov
10 a.m. Russell 222. Update on research, diagnosis and treatment for traumatic brain injury and concussion in service members. armed-services.senate.gov
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Ballistic missile defense: Evolving threats and new priorities with Rear Adm. Jon Hill, deputy director of the Missile Defense Agency. csis.org
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CORDS at 50: A model of civil-military collaboration? csis.org
1:45 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The future of combating terrorism and countering the use of WMD: A Conversation with Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Elaine Duke. hudson.org
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Addressing physiological episodes in fighter, attack and training aircraft Lt. Gen. Mark Nowland, Vice Adm. Paul Grosklags, and Rear Adm. Sara Joyner.
6 p.m. 1250 S Hayes St. Aerospace Industries Association Lyman award dinner. aia-aerospace.org
THURSDAY | DEC. 14
7 a.m. 901 17th St. NW. S&ET executive breakfast. ndia.org
9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway. Mitchell Hour on the operational National Guard, a unique and capable component of the joint force with Gen. Joseph Lengyel, chief of the National Guard Bureau. mitchellaerospacepower.org
10 a.m. Dirksen G-50 U.S. Policy and strategy in the Middle East. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed briefing on new counter-terrorism guidance with Maj. General Albert Elton II, Joint Staff deputy director for special operations and counterterrorism, and Andrew Knaggs, deputy assistant defense secretary for special operations and counterterrorism. foreign.senate.gov
11:30 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St. Aerospace Industries Association media luncheon. aia-aerospace.org
12:30 p.m. 525 New Jersey Ave. NW. CNAS event: Toward a common North Korea strategy with Rep. Ami Bera. cnas.org
6:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW.D.C. Foreign Affairs November/December Issue Launch Guest Event: America’s Forgotten Wars. cfr.org
FRIDAY | DEC. 15
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Defeating terrorism in the age of Trump with Sebastian Gorka. heritage.org
6:30 p.m. 1301 S. Joyce St. Military Reporters & Editors Association networking event with Brig. Gen. Seely, Marine Corps communications director. militaryreporters.org
