Pompeo meets with Saudis to coordinate response to suspected Iranian attacks

STILL ‘LOCKED AND LOADED’: In remarks to the Heritage Foundation yesterday, Vice President Mike Pence repeated Trump’s desire to avoid a shooting war but said a response is coming. “We’re evaluating all the evidence. We’re consulting with our allies. And the president will determine the best course of action in the days ahead,” he said.

“As the president said, we ‘don’t want war with anybody,’ but the United States is prepared. We’re locked and loaded. And we’re ready to defend our interests and our allies in the region — make no mistake about it.”

‘CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE’: The Pentagon is reviewing satellite imagery of Iran from the days leading up to the attack, but the United States does not have “an unblinking eye” over the region, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford told reporters traveling with him.

“Our intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities are focused on threats routinely to us; we wouldn’t necessarily see everything that goes on in the region,” he said. “We don’t have overhead imagery to share, we don’t have tracks to share, we don’t have an unblinking eye over the entire Middle East at all times.”

NPR is reporting that the overhead imagery shows “unusual activity” around cruise missiles and drone bases in Iran, which amounts to “circumstantial evidence” of Iran’s complicity.

“In the region, wherever it originated from, the most likely threat is either Iran or Iranian-backed proxies,” Dunford said. “Without getting out in front of the Saudi investigation, I think that is a reasonable conclusion.”

WHAT THE SAUDIS WANT: Saudi Arabia appears to be line with President Trump’s aversion to taking military action against Iran and instead is pushing for an international coalition to assist in defending oil infrastructure from future attacks.

The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said today that Saudi oil production will be back to 100% by the end of the month, reassuring oil markets and reversing the spike in global oil prices. He also said Saudi Arabia was able to make up the shortfall from its own reserves and would not need any oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

CASH IS KING: Asked Monday if he’d promised to protect Saudi oil fields with U.S. military might, Trump noted that the suspected Iranian strike was “an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn’t an attack on us.”

“The Saudis want very much for us to protect them,” Trump said, adding the United States “would certainly help them,” but at a price. “They’ve been a great ally. They spend $400 billion in our country over the last number of years. … And they’re not ones that, unlike some countries, where they want terms; they want terms and conditions,” Trump said. “No. Saudi Arabia pays cash.”

‘NO, LINDSEY’: Among the voices calling for stronger action is that of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.

“It is imperative we take decisive action to deter further aggression by the Ayatollah and his henchman,” Graham tweeted yesterday. “The measured response by President @realDonaldTrump regarding the shooting down of an American drone was clearly seen by the Iranian regime as a sign of weakness.”

To which Trump replied directly: “No Lindsey, it was a sign of strength that some people just don’t understand!”

KAINE: TRUMP STARTED IT: Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, speaking “as a father of a Marine” on MSNBC yesterday, said it would be “absolutely ridiculous” to put U.S. troops in another war in the Middle East.

“Under no circumstances, none, should the United States go to war to protect Saudi oil,” he said, vowing “to do everything I can as an Armed Services Committee and Foreign Relations member” to stop it.

And he blamed Trump for creating the crisis in the first place. “The notion that this was unprovoked is absolutely ridiculous. Through reimposing sanctions on the Iranian oil sector, we basically disabled them from selling energy. Do you think they’re just going to accept that? No, they’re not going to accept it. So the U.S. has been engaged, under this administration, in blowing up diplomacy and militarily provoking Iran, and when you do that, you get an escalation.”

ZARIF: IT’S ALL ABOUT YEMEN: Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, continues to deny that Iran had anything to do with the attack and portrays it as a result of Saudi Arabia’s war with Houthi rebels in Yemen.

“US is in denial if it thinks that Yemeni victims of 4.5 yrs of the worst war crimes wouldn’t do all to strike back. Perhaps it’s embarrassed that $100s of blns of its arms didn’t intercept Yemeni fire,” Zarif tweeted. “But blaming Iran won’t change that. Ending the war=only solution for all.”

IRAN’S THREAT: Iran is warning that any action taken against it following the attack on Saudi oil installations will “immediately” be met with a response from Tehran, its state-run news agency stated, as reported by the Associated Press.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper is the lead-off speaker at 8:30 a.m. at the Air Force Association’s 2019 Air, Space & Cyber Conference. The Pentagon is streaming Esper’s remarks live at www.defense.gov/Watch/Live.

THE FIVE: A week ago, President Trump said he had 15 candidates dying to replace John Bolton as national security adviser, boasting, “It’s a lot of fun to work with Donald Trump. It’s easy because I make all the decisions.”

Yesterday, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he’s now down to five finalists: attorney and hostage negotiator Robert O’Brien, assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Ricky Waddell, Energy Department nuclear security expert Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, former National Security Council chief of staff Fred Fleitz, and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who currently advises Vice President Mike Pence.

Trump praised O’Brien, saying, “I think he’s fantastic,” and Kellogg, saying, “I love Keith Kellogg. Keith Kellogg, he’s been with me from the beginning. He’s great.” Waddell, he noted, “I like a lot,” according to a pool report.

Trump’s comments seem to rule out retired Army Col. Douglas Macgregor, a favorite of noninterventionists, U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, and U.S. special representative for Iran Brian Hook. White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham Tuesday evening, however, said there were more than five names on Trump’s list.

GREEN BERET 17TH KIA: The Pentagon has identified the American special forces soldier killed in action in eastern Afghanistan Monday as Sgt. 1st Class Jeremy W. Griffin, 40, from Greenbrier, Tennessee. Griffin was killed by small arms fire when his unit was engaged in combat operations in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, according to a Pentagon statement.

An Army Green Beret, Griffin was assigned to the 3rd Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne), Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington.

So far this year, 19 troops have died in Afghanistan, 17 in combat and two in non-combat incidents.

DEADLY DAY IN AFGHANISTAN: Griffin’s death is the second this month and comes after the Taliban has continued to mount deadly attacks against civilians as Afghans prepare to vote in the Sept. 28 presidential elections the Taliban opposes.

In the latest violence Tuesday, suicide bombers killed 48 people in two separate attacks in Afghanistan, including one in which a bomber on a motorcycle blew himself up at a campaign rally attended by President Ashraf Ghani in northern Afghanistan. At least 26 people were killed and 42 wounded, but Ghani was unharmed.

TALIBAN READY TO RESUME TALKS: The Taliban’s chief negotiator has reportedly said the “doors are open” to resuming talks with Washington, just hours after the two attacks.

Taliban negotiator Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai insisted negotiation remained “the only way for peace in Afghanistan” in an interview with the BBC.

POMPEO’S RESPONSE: “Through these attacks, the Taliban demonstrate blatant disregard for the people and institutions of Afghanistan,” said Secretary Pompeo in a statement issued by the State Department.

“For Afghans to truly reconcile, the Taliban must begin to demonstrate a genuine commitment to peace rather than continue the violence and destruction that causes such inordinate harm to the Afghan people and the future of their country,” Pompeo said.

DEFENSE BILL GOES TO CONFERENCE: Facing an end-of-the-month deadline, Congress is getting down to the tough work of nailing down the unresolved issues in the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act.

The NDAA goes to a House-Senate conference committee this week.

TIME FOR A NEW AUMF: As of today, it’s been 18 years since Congress approved the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, which authorized U.S military action in response to the attacks on Sept. 11.

Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth is among the Democrats renewing a call for a new AUMF to deal with current threats, including Iran.

“It’s been 18 years — there are now full-grown adults serving in America’s longest war who were not alive when Congress last debated the AUMF that Donald Trump is now using to keep them there,” said Duckworth in a statement. “As a nation, we are long over-due to have a thorough and honest debate about replacing the outdated 2001 AUMF … especially with Donald Trump thumping his chest about attacking Iran if Saudi Arabia directs him to — it’s past time we do so.”

WAR POWERS THREAT: Democrats argue that that neither of the existing authorizations would cover a war against Iran, and therefore military intervention would require congressional approval.

“If the president decides to ignore the Constitution and start military action without us, there is a provision under the War Powers Resolution that gives us the ability to file immediately a resolution to stop military action, and we’re guaranteed a vote on that on the floor,” said Sen. Tim Kaine on MSNBC. “If the president foolishly decides that America should go to war to protect Saudi oil, we will file that resolution immediately; we will force a vote on the Senate floor in full view of the American public.”

The Rundown

Washington Post: Trump is expected to tap North Korea envoy for deputy secretary of state

New York Times: To Find Clues in Saudi Oil Attacks, U.S. Examines Missile and Drone Parts

Bloomberg: Pentagon Readying a Public Show of Evidence in Saudi Attacks

Wall Street Journal: Tehran Tries to Show High Costs of U.S.’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Campaign

Defense News: Senate Republicans Not Ready for U.S. Military Action Against Iran

Washington Post: Hong Kong Activists Ask Congress to Get Tougher

Reuters: Pence Rebuffs Solomon Islands PM After Nation Cuts Ties With Taiwan

Air Force Magazine: Goldfein Forecasts B-1 Cuts, More B-21s

USNI News: Electric Boat Preparing for Columbia-Class, but Supply Base Remains a Challenge

Washington Examiner: Air Force leadership implores public not to storm Area 51

AP: Stopgap Spending Measure to Advance in House, but Other Spending Bills Languish in Senate

Military Times: The Pentagon Is Canceling Three Border Wall Projects Because the Costs Went Up

The Diplomat: China Sends Strategic Bombers, Tanks and 1,600 Troops to Russia for Large Military Drill

The Diplomat: Japan Will Get F-35Bs on a Flattop With U.S. Cooperation. Will South Korea Follow?

Air Force Magazine: USAF Reviewing More Valor Awards for Possible Upgrade to Medal of Honor

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 18

8:30 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md. Day 3 of the Air Force Association 2019 Air, Space and Cyber Conference. With remarks by Defense Secretary Mark Esper at 8:30 a.m. and Air Force Chief Master Sgt. Kaleth Wright at 10:15 a.m. www.afa.org/events/calendar

9 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. N.W. United States Institute of Peace forum on “Resetting Priorities to Address Violent Extremist Threats,” with remarks by Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations Denise Natali at 9 a.m. and retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Nagata, director of strategy at the Army National Counterterrorism Center, at 3:45 p.m. www.usip.org/events/resolve

10:30 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Defeat-ISIS Task Force Director Chris Maier provides an on-the-record, off-camera briefing for reporters.

10:30 a.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion on “Avoiding Failure in Afghanistan: The Impact of U.S. Engagement on Security, Political Stability and Economic Growth,” with Earl Anthony Wayne, senior adviser at the Wilson Center and former ambassador to Afghanistan; James Cunningham, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former ambassador to Afghanistan; Ronald Neumann, president of American Academy of Diplomacy and former ambassador to Afghanistan; Laurel Miller, International Crisis Group, and former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan; and Rohullah Osmani, ADB North America, and visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins University, SAIS. sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

11:30 a.m. Washington Space Business Roundtable discussion on “SATCOM DoD Requirements, Capabilities, and Acquisition,” with Lt. Gen. David Thompson, vice commander of Air Force Space Command; Skot Butler, president of Intelsat General Communications; Richard Lober, vice president and general manager of Hughes Network Systems; Pete Hoene, president and CEO of SES Government Solutions; and Janice Starzyk, vice president of commercial space at Bryce Space and Technologies. www.wsbr.org/upcoming-events

2 p.m. House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing on “Shattered Families, Shattered Service: Taking Military Domestic Violence Out of the Shadows.” Witnesses: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Military Community and Family Policy Ann Thomas Johnston and Pentagon Family Advocacy Program Associate Director Kenneth Noyes. armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. The American Enterprise Institute holds a discussion on “North Korea’s Control Tower: The Organization and Guidance Department,” with Robert Collins of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea; Markus Garlauskas, officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council; David Maxwell, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Nicholas Eberstadt, chair in political economy at AEI. www.aei.org Livestream at www.american.com/watch.

6:30 p.m. 700 L’Enfant Plaza S.W. International Spy Museum book discussion on The Nuclear Spies: America’s Atomic Intelligence Operation Against Hitler and Stalin, with author Vince Houghton, historian at the Spy Museum, and Alexis Albion, historian at the Spy Museum. www.spymuseum.org/calendar/upcoming

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 19

7:45 a.m. 701 N. Fairfax St., Alexandria. Defense Strategies Institute annual Cyber Operations for National Defense Symposium, with Gen. James Holmes, commander of U.S. Air Combat Command, delivering remarks at 8:15 a.m. Closed to news media. cybersecurity.dsigroup.org

10 a.m 2172 Rayburn. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the Trump administration’s Afghanistan policy, with Zalmay Khalilzad, special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation. gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing

11 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. United States Institute of Peace discussion on “Reintegrating Taliban Fighters in Afghanistan,” with Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko; Kate Bateman, project lead for reintegration in the SIGAR Lessons Learning Program; Erica Gaston, nonresident fellow at the Global Public Policy Institute; Laurel Miller, program director for Asia at the International Crisis Group; Timor Sharan, deputy minister for policy and technical affairs at the Independent Directorate of Local Governance; and Scott Worden, director of Afghanistan and Central Asia programs at USIP. www.usip.org/events

12 p.m. 1107 Van Munching Hall, College Park, Md. University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland forum on “Total Defense in a Cyber Era: A Whole of Society Approach to National Cybersecurity Challenges,” with Melissa Griffith, public policy fellow at the Wilson Center. cissm.umd.edu/events/cissm-global-forum

5:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. American Security Project discussion on “Military Base Resilience,” focusing on climate security, with Alice Hill, senior fellow for climate change policy at the Council on Foreign Relations; retired Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Stephen Cheney, CEO of ASP; and retired Lt. Gen. John Castellaw, co-founder and CEO of Farmspace Systems. www.americansecurityproject.org/event

6 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion on “Tensions with Turkey,” with Alan Makovsky, senior fellow for national security and international policy at Center for American Progress. sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 20

8:30 a.m. 701 N. Fairfax St., Alexandria. Day 2 of the Defense Strategies Institute annual Cyber Operations for National Defense Symposium, with remarks by Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Cyber Policy Burke Wilson at 9 a.m. and Ian Crone, project manager at DARPA, at 2:15 p.m. Closed to news media. cybersecurity.dsigroup.org

7:30 p.m. CDT. 3000 Mountain Creek Pkwy., Dallas. World Affairs Council of Dallas conversation with former defense secretary Jim Mattis. www.dfwworld.org/events