MONTHS IN THE PLANNING: The daring nighttime raid was months in the planning and aided by intelligence from America’s allies in northern Syria. Preparation for the raid included building a scale model of the three-story building in which the target, the latest head of the terrorist group ISIS, was living on the third floor with his family.
In December, commanders showed the model of the site to President Joe Biden in the Situation Room to drive home the complexity of this operation.
The U.S. could easily and safely have bombed the building near the Turkish border, killing everyone inside, but there were many innocents on the other floors. Plus, with an airstrike, it’s much harder to confirm the intended target was killed. So, Biden opted for a riskier commando raid carried out by America’s elite special operations forces.
The operation had a tight, two-hour timeline for U.S. forces to helicopter in, attempt to clear the structure of civilians, and kill — or possibly capture — Abu Ibrahim al Hashimi al Qurayshi, aka Hajii Abdullah, who took over leadership of ISIS after a similar operation took out Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in 2019.
Like al Baghdadi, when U.S. troops closed in, al Qurayshi detonated a suicide vest, killing members of his family. Al Bagdadi killed three children. Al Qurayshi’s wife and two children perished with him, and the force of the explosion caused the top floor of the building to collapse.
In addition, one of al Qurayshi’s top lieutenants and his wife engaged U.S. forces on the second floor and died in the exchange of gunfire along with their young child.
ISIS LEADER DETONATED EXPLOSIVES, KILLING HIMSELF AS US FORCES CLOSED IN
NOT EVERYTHING WENT AS PLANNED: While the operation was a success, carried out with textbook precision and no U.S. casualties, it was not without some problems. A U.S. military helicopter was diverted from landing at the scene after developing a mechanical problem and later had to be destroyed to prevent it from being recovered by enemy forces.
And the effort to evacuate innocents from the building was only partially successful. The U.S. commandos used a bullhorn to urge people to evacuate the building, and upon entering, ushered at least 10 people outside, including women, children, and babies, according to the Pentagon.
“This operation was specifically designed and conducted in a manner to minimize civilian casualties,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a statement congratulating the troops and their leaders for the “superb” planning and execution of the dangerous mission.
“We know that al Qurayshi and others at his compound directly caused the deaths of women and children last night,” Austin said. “But given the complexity of this mission, we will take a look at the possibility our actions may also have resulted in harm to innocent people.”
SEALS, RANGERS, DELTA FORCE? The Pentagon was tight-lipped about which service conducted the raid. “I’m not going to describe them in any greater specificity than I have,” said spokesman John Kirby, “U.S. Special Operations Forces, under the control of U.S. Central Command.”
In 2019, Army Special Forces, including Rangers and Delta Force commandos, carried out the raid against al Baghdadi and were later presented a Presidential Unit Citation during a private visit the following year from President Donald Trump at Fort Bragg, North Carolina.
‘NOBODY’S TAKING A VICTORY LAP’: “Last night’s operation took a major terrorist leader off the battlefield, and it sent a strong message to terrorists around the world: We will come after you and find you,” said Biden in a brief address to the nation after the raid.
“This operation is testament to America’s reach and capability to take out terrorist threats no matter where they try to hide anywhere in the world,” he said. “I’m determined to protect the American people from terrorist threats, and I will take decisive action to protect this country.”
At the Pentagon, the tone was a little more cautious. “This was the leader of ISIS, and he was a very hands-on leader,” said Kirby. “So we have no doubt his death will have a blow on ISIS and their potential to conduct future operations,” but he added, “Nobody’s taking a victory lap here. We’re going to stay at this. They still remain a threat.”
“There will be somebody else that ISIS will announce within the next few days, I’m pretty sure, who will claim descent from the Prophet Mohammed, and it will carry on,” said terrorism expert Peter Bergan on CNN. “ISIS is still around in Afghanistan. It has a lot of freedom of movement, and it continues to be an issue in Iraq and Syria.”
WE WILL COME AFTER YOU: BIDEN’S WARNING TO TERRORISTS AFTER SYRIA RAID
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HAPPENING TODAY: Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of today’s opening ceremonies of the Winter Olympics in Beijing and issued a joint statement calling on NATO to rule out expansion in Eastern Europe and “abandon the ideologized approaches of the Cold War.”
“The parties oppose the further expansion of Nato, call on the North Atlantic alliance to abandon the ideologised approaches of the Cold War, respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries, the diversity of their civilisational and cultural-historical patterns, and treat the peaceful development of other states objectively and fairly,” the document read, according to the Associated Press.
US ACCUSES RUSSIA OF ‘FALSE FLAG’ PLOT: In what it says is an effort “to lay bare the extent of Russia’s destabilizing actions toward Ukraine,” the State Department says U.S. intelligence has learned that Russia is planning “to stage fabricated attacks by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces as a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine.”
“One possible option the Russians are considering, and which we made public today, involves the production of a propaganda video — a video with graphic scenes of false explosions — depicting corpses, crisis actors pretending to be mourners, and images of destroyed locations or military equipment — entirely fabricated by Russian intelligence,” said spokesman Ned Price at the top of yesterday’s State Department briefing.
“To be clear, the production of this propaganda video is one of a number of options that the Russian government is developing as a fake pretext to initiate and potentially justify military aggression against Ukraine,” said Price. “We don’t know if Russia will necessarily use this or another option in the coming days.”
STAGED RUSSIAN PLOT COULD BE PRETEXT FOR UKRAINE INVASION, US SAYS
AN EPIC CONFRONTATION: The claim, presented without disclosing the evidence, was met with deep skepticism by veteran Associated Press diplomatic correspondent Matt Lee, who pressed Price for the basis of the accusation.
Here’s just part of the testy exchange:
LEE: What is the evidence that they — I mean, this is — like, crisis actors? Really? This is like Alex Jones territory you’re getting into now. What evidence do you have to support the idea that there is some propaganda film in the making?
PRICE: Matt, this is derived from information known to the U.S. government, intelligence information that we have declassified. I think you know —
LEE: OK, well, where is it? Where is this information?
PRICE: It is intelligence information that we have declassified.
LEE: Well, where is it? Where is the declassified information?
PRICE: I just delivered it.
LEE: No, you made a series of allegations and statements —
PRICE: Would you like us to print out the topper? Because you will see a transcript of this briefing that you can print out for yourself.
LEE: But that’s not evidence, Ned. That’s you saying it. That’s not evidence. I’m sorry.
PRICE: What would you like, Matt?
LEE: I would like to see some proof that you — that you can show that —
PRICE: Matt, you have been —
LEE: — that shows that the Russians are doing this. Ned, I’ve been doing this for a long time, as you know.
PRICE: I know. That was my point. You have been doing this for quite a while.
LEE: I have.
PRICE: You know that when we declassify intelligence, we do so in a means —
LEE: That’s right. And I remember WMDs in Iraq, and I —
PRICE: — we do so with an eye to protecting sources and methods.
LEE: And I remember that Kabul was not going to fall. I remember a lot of things. So, where is the declassified information other than you coming out here and saying it?
PRICE: Matt, I’m sorry you don’t like the format, but we have —
LEE: It’s not the format. It’s the content.
PRICE: I’m sorry you don’t like the content. I’m sorry you —
LEE: It’s not that I don’t like it or —
PRICE: I’m sorry you are doubting the information that is in the possession of the U.S. government.
Afterward, Price tweeted: “The renowned @APDiploWriter and I have had our fair share of sparring sessions, and I have the scars to prove it. Clearly, he’s no one’s dupe, and I’d never want to suggest otherwise. Nothing but respect for him, which I underscored in a call to him after the briefing.”
‘ALEX JONES TERRITORY’: REPORTER BATTLES STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN ON RUSSIAN ‘FALSE FLAG’ CLAIM
PUTIN’S LIKELY COURSE OF ACTION: The Pentagon figures that Russian President Vladimir Putin has about two more weeks until the fertile flat farmlands of eastern Ukraine freeze enough to support the weight of an invasion force of battle tanks and heavy artillery.
And during that window, while diplomacy runs its course, think-tankers in Washington have been furiously war-gaming what military moves Putin might make to force the former Soviet republic back into Russia’s orbit and to abandon its dreams of NATO membership.
“Russia may launch an air and missile campaign throughout unoccupied Ukraine in conjunction with an overt deployment into occupied Donbas,” predicts the Institute for the Study of War in its latest report, but the authors add that Putin is likely smart enough not to seize Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv or other major cities, which would effectively end his political leverage.
A separate analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Putin has arrayed his forces to give him a wide range of options, from taking all or part of Ukraine to seizing a belt of land to connect Russia with Trans-Dniester, a landlocked sliver of terrain between Ukraine and Moldova that would cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, and on the low end, he could conduct extensive cyber operations, subversion, and sabotage.
Read more in this week’s Washington Examiner magazine: HOW A RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE MIGHT GO DOWN
WHAT EXPERTS ARE SAYING ABOUT THE AL QURAYSHI RAID:
“Just as Baghdadi’s death did not signal the demise of the Islamic State, it is unlikely that the loss of Qurayshi will severely degrade the group’s global operations, especially as many of its affiliates have become more decentralized. Qurayshi’s tenure as caliph proved the Islamic State’s capability to expand its influence no matter who ranks highest, yet another tangible example that jihadist organizations are consistently resilient in the face of decapitation strategies.” — Bill Roggio, terrorism expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“ISIS has lost its leader for the second time. This is of course a major setback for the group. While important, however, the international community should guard against the risk of a false sense of the strategic impact. Despite the loss of al Qurayshi, things are actually looking up for ISIS. The group was able to counter al Qaeda pressure in West Africa, integrate most of Boko Haram, establish a new affiliate in Central Africa, and increase activities in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. We are still very much in the middle of the fight.” — Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director at the Counter Extremism Project.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING ON THE HILL:
“The operation targeting the head of ISIS, al-Qurayshi, rid the world of a terrorist who brutally murdered innocent men, women, and children and sought to kill countless more … Terrorist groups remain a deadly threat around the globe. Even as we focus on strategic competition with near-peer rivals, we must continue to hone our counterterrorism approach with allies and partners.” — Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“First, for many months, the administration has insisted that it can effectively counter terrorists through ‘over-the-horizon’ operations. Last night demonstrated the importance of U.S. partnerships and presence for successful counterterrorism operations — something we no longer have in Afghanistan, where there have been zero strikes against ISIS-K since August. This is why the terrorists responsible for killing 13 U.S. service members on August 26 are still at large.” — Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“This successful operation does not, however, mark the end of the ISIS threat or the counterterrorism challenge. The United States must remain vigilant in the face of such threats. The House Armed Services Committee will continue its oversight of Department of Defense counterterrorism operations with a focus on advancing the mission and protecting civilians from harm.” — Washington State Rep. Adam Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee
“The raid last night also demonstrated the importance of U.S. partnerships on the ground to conduct successful counterterrorism operations. It’s why Biden’s Afghanistan ‘strategy’ of relying on ‘over-horizon counterterrorism capabilities’ to hold some of the world’s most dangerous and depraved individuals accountable will ultimately fail without those ground-based partnerships.” — Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers, lead Republican on the House Armed Services Committee
“The recent uptick in ISIS attacks, including the January prison break in Hasakah and attack on an army barracks in Iraq, is disturbing. We need to work with our coalition partners to maintain significant counterterrorism pressure to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS and safety of our homeland. That is why it is imperative that we keep a residual force in Syria to continue to fight the threat of ISIS.” — Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, House Foreign Affairs Committee lead Republican.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: How a Russian invasion of Ukraine might go down
Washington Examiner: Russia threatens power grids if Biden moves in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Staged Russian plot could be pretext for Ukraine invasion, US says
Washington Examiner: We will come after you: Biden’s warning to terrorists after Syria raid
Washington Examiner: ISIS leader detonated explosives, killing himself as US forces closed in
Washington Examiner: US commandos kill ISIS leader, successor of al Baghdadi, in Syria raid
Washington Examiner: US ‘working to prevent’ Russian military from operating in Latin America
Washington Examiner: ‘Alex Jones territory’: Reporter battles State Department spokesman on Russian ‘false flag’ claim
Washington Examiner: Analysis: Russian defense minister’s suspicious visit to Belarus
Reuters: China, Russia ‘Coordinated Positions’ On Ukraine, Says Chinese Foreign Ministry
Washington Post: U.S. Warns China Against Helping Russia Evade Ukraine-Related Sanctions Ahead Of Xi-Putin Meeting
Reuters: U.S. Lawmakers Push To Rename Taiwan’s De Facto Embassy In Washington
New York Times: Turkey, a Sometimes Wavering NATO Ally, Backs Ukraine
Breaking Defense: The Russian Military Build Up Near Ukraine Is Happening At Sea Too
Defense One: Navy Puts AI, Unmanned Systems To The Test In Five-Sea, 60-Nation Exercise
USNI News: Marines COVID-19 Vaccination Separations Surpass 450
Air Force Magazine: Senate Confirms New Air Force Inspector General
The Drive: SM-6 Missiles Are America’s Only Defense Against Hypersonic Weapons Missile Defense Chief Says
CNN: Pentagon Urges CEOs Of Largest Defense Companies To Accelerate Hypersonic Weapons Development As U.S. Lags Behind China
Defense Daily: Navy Prioritizes Building Two Destroyers Annually While Developing DDG(X)
CNN: Tense Moments In Situation Room As Biden Oversaw Raid On ISIS Leader That Was Months In The Making
Wall Street Journal: Iranians Close Gap On Bomb, U.S. Says
19fortyfive.com: Poland Is Sending Missiles, Drones, and Thousands of Artillery Rounds to Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Are Russia and China Really Close to Being Allies?
Navy Times: Navy Investigating Top Enlisted Sailor Over Alleged Misconduct
Calendar
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 4
8 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Evolving Maritime Issues in the Indo-Pacific,” with Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; James Kraska, chair of the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Raul Pedrozo, professor at the U.S. Naval War College Center for International Law; Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; and Kathleen Walsh, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College https://www.stimson.org/event/evolving-maritime-issues
11 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “Ukrainian Perspectives on the Current U.S.-Ukraine-Russia Crisis,” with Ukrainian scholars Volodomyr Dubovyk, Tetyana Malyarenko, Olexiy Haran, and Oxana Shevel https://calendar.gwu.edu/ukrainian-perspectives-current-us-ukraine-russia-crisis
12 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies pre-recorded conversation: “Turkish – Russian Relations in Ukraine and Beyond: The Stakes for Europe and the United States,” with Clifford May, founder and president, FDD; Anna Borshchevskaya, senior fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Sinan Ciddi, associate professor of national security studies, Marine Corps University, and board of advisers member, FDD’s Turkey Program; John Hardie, research manager and research analyst, FDD; Aykan Erdemir, Senior Director, FDD’s Turkey Program https://www.fdd.org/category/events
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “In power after six months: What lies ahead for Afghanistan under the Taliban?” with Bruce Hoffman, professor at Georgetown University; Lisa Curtis, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Indo-Pacific Security Program; James Cunningham, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center; and Javid Ahmad, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/in-power-after-six-months
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “The World in 2022,” with former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson; former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing director of WestExec Advisers; James Murdoch, founder and CEO of LUPA Systems; and Richard Fontaine, CEO of CNAS https://www.cnas.org/events/special-event-the-world-in-2022
2 p.m. — Institute for Corean-American Studies virtual ICAS Winter Symposium on “The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security” with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, chairman of the Foundation for American Security & Freedom. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/icas-winter-symposium-special-tickets-247390560827
2:30 p.m. — Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance virtual discussion on “Implications of the First Combat Intercept of THAAD,” with John Rood, former under secretary of defense for policy; retired Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, former deputy commander, U.S. Pacific Air Forces; retired Col. Alan Wiernicki, former commander, 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade; retired Col. David Shank, former commander, 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command; and Riki Ellison, chairman and founder, Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance https://www.youtube.com/watch
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 7
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project webcast rollout of a new report: “Complex Air Defense: Countering the Hypersonic Missile Threat,” with Gillian Bussey, director, Joint Hypersonics Transition Office, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense, Research and Engineering; Kelley Sayler, analyst, advanced technology and global security, Congressional Research Service; Steve Trimble, defense editor, Aviation Week; Mark Lewis, executive director, Emerging Technologies Institute, National Defense Industrial Association; Stan Stafira, chief architect, Missile Defense Agency; Tom Karako, senior fellow, International Security Program and Director, Missile Defense Project, CSIS; Seth Jones, senior vice president and director, International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/complex-air-defense-countering-hypersonic-missile-threat
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense Budget Analysis program: “Experts Preview the FY 2023 Defense Budget Request,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Stacie Pettyjohn, director, Defense Program, Center for a New American Security; Travis Sharp, fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; Thomas Spoehr, director, Center for National Defense, The Heritage Foundation; Todd Harrison, director, Defense Budget Analysis and Aerospace Security Project, CSIS; and Seamus Daniels, associate director and associate fellow, Defense Budget Analysis, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/experts-preview-fy-2023-defense-budget-request
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: “Military Personnel Talent Management Modernization and the Effects of Legacy Policies,” with Army Lt. Gen. Gary Brito, deputy chief of staff, G-1; Vice Adm. John Nowell, chief of naval personnel; Air Force Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services; Marine Lt. Gen. David Ottignon, deputy commandant, manpower and reserve affairs; and Patricia Mulcahy, deputy chief of space operations for personnel https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual conversation on “Army priorities for 2022 and beyond,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of The Mitchell Institute https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Al-Qurayshi, also known as Hajii Abdullah, provided near-constant operational guidance to ISIS fighters, to include the prison break and attack at Hasakah and the slaughter of Yazidis in Iraq. He is now off the battlefield and out of command, and cannot threaten any more lives.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, on the U.S. commando raid that resulted in the death of ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al Hashimi al Qurayshi
