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CHINA’S GROWING MILITARY POWER: An unclassified assessment of China’s Military Power by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency warns of gains in its capabilities against the United States — including pulling ahead of the American military among some weapons systems. “China is building a robust, lethal force with capabilities spanning the air, maritime, space and information domains which will enable China to impose its will in the region,” wrote DIA Director Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, in a preface to the report. A senior defense intelligence official, briefing Pentagon reporters on the report yesterday, said that in the areas of ballistic and cruise missile technology, “I would say that they are with the most modern militaries in the world.” LEADER IN HYPERSONICS, SRBMs: The official said China is close to fielding a maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle for its ballistic missiles and has a big edge over the United States and the rest of the world with its arsenal of 1,200 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). “For a variety of reasons they’re out ahead of the world in medium-and intermediate-range precision strike systems, partly because the United States and Russia that limited them,” the official said in reference to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty which bans both Russia and the U.S. from developing or deploying land-based ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. THREAT TO U.S. WARSHIPS: That edge in precision strike capability is one reason the Trump Administration is ready to withdraw from the Cold War-era INF treaty. Not only is Russia violating the treaty with development and deployment of a land-based cruise missile system, but China is not bound by it, and has taken full advantage of the restrictions on the U.S. and Russia to build a considerable edge in their precision strike capabilities. “From the Chinese perspective, they would hope that it would cause a great threat to U.S. warships,” the DIA official said. “They certainly have developed anti-ship capabilities in a variety of different ways to deal with concerns that they’ve had a couple of decades about the potential for U.S. Navy and other allied navies operating in the region.” SOUTH CHINA SEA: After two years of ambitious island-building in 2014 and 2015, the Chinese are feeling pretty good about their expanding influence over the South China Sea, the official said. “They have three large airfields on these artificial islands that they created down there where they can base all types of military capabilities down there. They can have a lot of sensors down there. They can support naval operations, and in the future, air operations much further away from China,” he said. “They’re able to be present in a more persistent manner than they might have been before, if they had to come all the way down from the mainland or from Hainan Island up nearer the mainland, to get into some sort of a conflict with a regional claimant or with the U.S. or allied forces.” EYE ON TAIWAN: The DIA assess that for Chinese President Xi Jinping, resolving the status of Taiwan remains a primary goal. “I think we’re at a point right now where Xi Jinping has made it clear that resolving or making progress, at least, on resolving, from his perspective, the Taiwan situation is a very top priority for him,” the official said, while at the same time noting that since Xi has eliminated limits on his term as state president, he has more time to resolve the issue. WILL CHINA ATTACK TAIWAN? The DIA sees no sign of any military action in the near future. “So, it’s our job in DIA to help our decision-makers not be surprised by such things, and I would hope that in most cases we have a good idea what’s going on,” the official said. “Although I will not say that we are omniscient… So, there’s always a chance for surprise, although we are very closely monitoring new situations all the time.” But China continues to build up its capability to move against Taiwan. “if you’re building missiles with a range that can only hit Taiwan from your shore and not things further afield and base them right across from Taiwan … that seems very clear that these capabilities were very focused on Taiwan.” “If they wanted to, fire missiles at Taiwan, they could do it right now. You know, there is very little warning for those SRBM units I talked about, to roll out of garrison and fire,” the official said. He added, “There’s been no indication they’re planning to do that, but there’s very little warning that could be provided for that kind of thing.” CHINA’S MILITARY STILL HAS WORK TO DO: For all its increased capabilities China’s military is still not on a par with the U.S., the DIA report concludes. “This is a military that hasn’t fought a war in 40 years.” “When you talk parity … there is more than just technology involved; there’s experience, there’s experience, there is command structure, there is training, there is proficiency … they have a lot that they need to do.” “In the coming years, the PLA is likely to grow even more technologically advanced and proficient with equipment comparable to that of other modern militaries. The PLA will acquire advanced fighter aircraft, modern naval vessels, missile systems, and space and cyberspace assets as it reorganizes and trains to address 21st-century threats further from China’s shores,” the report finds. BIGGEST DIA WORRY: “The biggest concern is that as a lot of these [weapons] technologies mature, as their reorganization of their military comes into effect, as they become more proficient with these capabilities, our concern is we’ll reach a point where internally, within their decision-making, they will decide that using military force for a regional conflict is something that is more imminent.” A reporter asked, “Confident in their capability to do what? Attack Taiwan and win?” The official replied, “Well, specifically, that would be the most concerning to me.” Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. 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HAPPENING TODAY: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan welcome’s Japanese Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya to the Pentagon at 2 p.m. EST on the steps of the River Entrance. Shanahan is expected to make brief remarks and take a question from reporters before meeting with Iwaya in his Pentagon office. It will mark the first time reporters have seen Shanahan since he took over on an acting basis from Jim Mattis Jan. 1. GRAHAM PLEADS FOR DEAL TO END PARTIAL SHUTDOWN: Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., renewed his plea to President Trump to give Democrats one more chance to strike a deal on a border wall and then declare a national emergency if unsuccessful. “Mr. President, if Democrats come to you in the Senate and say that, ‘We would like to work with you for a few weeks to see if we could solve this problem,’ give them a chance,” Graham told Fox News last night. “And if they don’t deliver, do it by yourself.” The partial government shutdown, which began Dec. 22, is now into its fourth week, making it the longest shutdown in U.S. history. “Mr. President, if you are watching this show, I think there are Democrats that would work with you, that we could get a deal within the Senate,” Graham said. “If Democrats in the Senate will work with you, give them a chance, a couple of weeks. If it doesn’t work, do it yourself. But give it one last shot.” IMPASSE STARTS TO PINCH FOR COAST GUARD PERSONNEL: The U.S. Coast Guard commandant, Admiral Karl L. Schultz, yesterday sent a stark note to service members about lack of paychecks due to the partial government shutdown. “Today you will not be receiving your regularly scheduled mid-month paycheck,” Schultz wrote. “To the best of my knowledge, this marks the first time in our Nation’s history that servicemembers in a U.S. Armed Force have not been paid during a lapse in government appropriations. Unlike the four service branches under Pentagon command, the Coast Guard is not funded by Defense Department appropriations. Rather, its funding comes from the Department of Homeland Security, which is at the heart of the impasse between President Trump and congressional Democrats over a potential wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. SPECIAL DELIVERY FOR KIM JONG UN: A letter from President Trump was hand-delivered to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang over the weekend via plane, as planning for a second summit between the two leaders is in the works, CNN reported yesterday. The two leaders met in June during a summit in Singapore to “work toward complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s former spy chief Kim Yong Chol may visit Washington as early as this week to continue negotiations for the summit, according to a source familiar with the situation. Although National Security Adviser John Bolton said last month that the rogue regime had “not lived up to the commitments so far,” President Trump told reporters last week that discussions were going smoothly with North Korea. “Now I say this, North Korea, we’re doing very well,” Trump said. “And again, no rockets. There’s no rockets. There’s no anything. We’re doing very well.” LM WINS CONTRACT FOR ANOTHER ‘CRAPPY’ SHIP: Just days after the Navy christened USS Wichita, newest Freedom-variant Littoral Combat Ship, Lockheed Martin has been awarded a contract to build another of the ships, which designed to operate in shallow waters close to shore. (Hence the name “littoral,” relating to or situated on the shore of the sea or a lake, pronounced just like “literal.”) The LCS program has been the poster child for Pentagon acquisition gone off the rails and was a frequent target of the late Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain, who called the $15 billion program “an unfortunate and classic example” of wasted money. A Task & Purpose article from last month noted the LCS was mocked as standing for “Little Crappy Ship” and the program been plagued with so many problems that not a single LCS is in operational use by the U.S. Navy after 16 years in development, although three ships are scheduled to deploy later this year. Understandably Lockheed Martin had a different take in a press release issued yesterday: “Lockheed Martin’s Freedom-variant LCS is highly maneuverable, lethal and adaptable. Originally designed to support focused missions such as mine warfare, anti-submarine warfare and surface warfare, the team continues to evolve capabilities based on rigorous Navy operational testing; sailor feedback and multiple successful fleet deployments. The Freedom-variant LCS integrates new technology and capability to affordably support current and future mission capability from deep water to the littorals.” AMID SYRIA WITHDRAWAL PLANS, WAR GRINDS ON: Another routine release yesterday from Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve underscores that the fight against ISIS is not over in Syria, even though ISIS is losing more ground every day. “In Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces liberated the town of al-Kashmah; defeating ISIS despite their use of complex attacks, improvised explosive devices, and booby-trapped buildings,” the release says. “Throughout the fight, the SDF rescued civilians as they fled from ISIS, which attempted to hide in residential areas and public facilities to protect themselves.” The release included praise of the U.S.-backed Syrian forces, which includes Kurdish fighters that Turkey is anxious to attack as soon as the U.S. leaves. “Since their offensive operations began in the MERV, our partners have made steady progress in their fight against ISIS,” said U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Patrick Roberson, Special Operation Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve commander. “They have proven themselves as reliable, effective combat soldiers, and with their continued cooperation we will continue to support them as they free northeast Syria from the grip of ISIS.” THE RUNDOWN New York Times: Shabab Claim Responsibility for Deadly Assault on Nairobi Hotel-Office Complex Breaking Defense: ‘Be Ready To Fight Now’: Top Admiral On Russia & China HuffPost: Coast Guard’s Members Miss Paychecks Due To Shutdown, Get $15 Million Donation Army Times: Special operations service member shot during training at Fort Bragg Breaking Defense: 12 Moments Of Truth For Army Modernization In 2019 NBC News: American ISIS member Warren Clark says he wanted to see ‘what the group was about’ Defense News: US Navy moves toward unleashing killer robot ships on the world’s oceans Fox News: Pentagon seeks to harness insect brains for ‘conscious robots’ Military Times: These upgrades will help Marines destroy more tanks and better protect their own Space Daily: U.S. Air Force awards Lockheed $131.6M for C-5 sustainment Stars and Stripes: A Green Beret says the military failed to detect his cancer. Now he seeks to hold the government accountable. Washington Post: Enes Kanter: Anyone who speaks out against Erdogan is a target. That includes me. |
CalendarWEDNESDAY | JANUARY 16 6:30 a.m. 1700 Jefferson Davis Hwy, Arlington. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley speaks at the Association of the U.S. Army Institute of Land Warfare. www.ausa.org 10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW. “Japan’s National Defense Strategy.” www.csis.org 12 p.m. Russell 485. “Winning Great Power Competition.” www.defensepriorities.org 5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard in Arlington. Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal speaks at AUSA ILW Lemnitzer Lecture. www.ausa.org THURSDAY | JANUARY 17 9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, 8th Floor. “India and Nuclear Asia: Forces, Doctrine, and Danger.” www.stimson.org FRIDAY | JANUARY 18 9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway, Arlington. Future of the Air Force, with Undersecretary of the Air Force Matt Donovan. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org 10:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Yes, America Can Still Lead the World: Jake Sullivan and Jeffrey Goldberg in Conversation.” carnegieendowment.org TUESDAY | JANUARY 22 9:45 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Japan in 2019: A Look at the Year Ahead.” carnegieendowment.org THURSDAY | JANUARY 31 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street NW. “The Belarus Dilemma: For Minsk and the West.” www.atlanticcouncil.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 7 11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street, NW. “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition.” https://csbaonline.org |
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