MATTIS AT AUSA: Today is Columbus Day, a federal holiday, but the Association of the U.S. Army’s Annual Meeting will be in full swing this morning with a keynote address by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Mattis’ remarks will be live streamed by the Pentagon www.defense.gov/live.
The event continues for three days, and features appearances from senior Army leaders, including Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and acting Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy. Other speakers today include Training and Doctrine Command chief Gen. David Perkins, Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, and Deputy Surgeon General Maj. Robert Tenhet. A full schedule of all three days can be found here.
The AUSA website touts that a new, updated version of the Army Field Manual, FM 3-0, will be be “rolled out” at today’s meeting. “Drafted, edited and published over a period of only seven months, the updated doctrine folds in the operational roles from the past 16 years of war, but spells out a new approach to conducting operations aligned with the Army’s four strategic roles: shaping the operational environment, preventing conflict, prevailing during large-scale ground combat and consolidating gains,” according to the association.
WHOSE STRATEGY IS IT ANYWAY? Speaking of updated strategies, former Defense Secretary Ash Carter sparked a minor debate last week when he claimed in an essay that the Trump team was handing the Islamic State a lasting defeat, thanks to his plan. “Despite a presidential promise of a ‘secret plan,’ the coalition campaign under the Trump administration is largely on the same track we laid out for it over Christmas of 2015.” We talked to a former senior commander and a former Pentagon spokesman to examine the question of whether Mattis and company instituted a significantly new strategy on behalf of President Trump, or just made a few tweaks to the Obama strategy of working “by, with and through” local partner forces.
THE ONLY THING THAT WILL WORK: Trump continues to keep everyone guessing about his strategy for dealing with North Korea, and his latest tweets continue the theme that diplomacy will bring Kim Jong Un to heel. “Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid,” Trump tweeted Saturday. “Hasn’t worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!
When asked by a reporter about the “one thing” while departing the White House en route North Carolina Saturday evening, Trump said only, “You’ll figure that out pretty soon.”
And just this morning, he tweeted: “Our country has been unsuccessfully dealing with North Korea for 25 years, giving billions of dollars & getting nothing. Policy didn’t work!”
CORKER UNCORKED: Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker, who has announced will not seek reelection in 2018, has unloaded on Trump, first on Twitter and later in an interview in the New York Times. Corker says Trump is treating the presidency like “a reality show” and that his reckless threats are putting the country “on a the path to World War III.” And Corker says he’s not the only Republican in Congress who feels that way. “I know for a fact that every single day at the White House, it’s a situation of trying to contain him,” Corker said.
Trump yesterday morning launched a vigorous counterattack in response the Corker’s initial criticism of Trump as creating chaos. “Senator Bob Corker ‘begged’ me to endorse him for re-election in Tennessee. I said ‘NO’ and he dropped out (said he could not win without my endorsement). He also wanted to be Secretary of State, I said ‘NO THANKS.’ He is also largely responsible for the horrendous Iran Deal! Hence, I would fully expect Corker to be a negative voice and stand in the way of our great agenda. Didn’t have the guts to run!’
Corker shot back on Twitter: “It’s a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning,” and later told the Times. “He concerns me. He would have to concern anyone who cares about our nation.” Corker, who chairs the Foreign Relations committee, and therefore could play a critical role if, as expected Trump decertifies the Iran nuclear deal this week and punts to Congress.
U.S. ALONE AGAIN, NATURALLY: On CBS yesterday, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein argued that Trump was out of step with the international community and key U.S. allies by insisting Iran was in violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement with the U.S. and six other world powers. And Feinstein says the effect could be to undermine any prospect of a negotiated settlement with North Korea. “When you have the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the United States all agreeing to support something, and then the United States goes through an election, the new president pulls us out, what does that say?” Feinstein asked. “The greatest ramification from this would be to really create a crisis with North Korea, because it would give North Korea reason to believe, well, nothing the Republicans do can you trust.”
Feinstein told “Face the Nation” host John Dickerson that the Senate Intelligence Committee received classified briefings on Iran that made clear Tehran was keeping up its part of the bargain. “There is no question but that Iran has complied with the strictures of the deal. And when either IAEA found something or anyone else found something, it was quickly remedied, if there was a glitch,” she said. “So, they have cooperated, I think, 100 percent.”
TRUMP’S LIMITS: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Trump can’t reverse the deal. “In the nuclear negotiations and agreement we reached issues and benefits that are not reversible,” Rouhani said at Tehran University on Saturday, according to Reuters. “No one can turn that back, not Mr. Trump or anyone else,” adding, “Even if 10 other Trumps are created in the world, these are not reversible.”
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
CRUNCH TIME FOR THE NDAA: With two major chamber votes in the rearview mirror, the House could move this week to begin bargaining with the Senate on the National Defense Authorization Act, a 2018 defense policy bill that includes a major military spending hike. “Versus other years there is not as many issues, so I think we can [reach agreement] but it just takes some time to work through it,” said Rep. Mac Thornberry, a key negotiator. Billions of dollars in defense funding still hang in the balance for big-ticket items such as the F-35 fighter, missile defense, and the size of the Army, as well as Rep. Mike Rogers’ controversial plan for a Space Corps. Sen. John McCain, who will lead negotiations for the Senate, also sounded an optimistic note. “We’ve got a lot of concerns and I’m sure we’ll get them resolved. We do every year,” McCain told the Washington Examiner. “There is always differences, we always work them out.”
SPACE CORPS SHOWDOWN: This year, both the House and Senate versions of the defense bill include a $30-40 billion hike over Trump’s requested budget. The House NDAA calls for $632 billion for base defense spending and $65 billion in war funding, while the Senate version top line is $640 billion with $60 billion for the war fund, called overseas contingency operations. “The question is how do we resolve that and what is the top line” dollar amount, Sen. Jack Reed, the Armed Services ranking member, told the Washington Examiner. Still, the House proposal to create a separate Space Corps military service in the Department of the Air Force is likely to create a political tangle. The Senate unanimously agreed to add an NDAA amendment barring the move. “They really have not immersed themselves in this issue as we have, as they come to learn more about it they are going to arrive at the same place we are,” Rogers told the Washington Examiner. “It’s going to be a little period of education to make sure they get up to speed on the stuff the House has been focused on but I’m optimistic that we’ll get there.” Sen. Bill Nelson, an Armed Services Committee member who flew on the Space Shuttle in the 1980s, sponsored the amendment barring a Space Corps and said the House’s idea will wash out during conference negotiations. “There will be no Space Corps,” Nelson told the Washington Examiner.
MISSILE DEFENSE BOOST: The Pentagon’s move to shift $416 million into missile defense will help jumpstart the addition of new interceptors in Alaska to counter North Korea, Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan said Friday. Sullivan said $81 million of the repurposed money will help fund the increase from 44 to 64 ground-based missile interceptors at Fort Greely, one of two sites on the West Coast prepared to shoot down an attack from North Korea. Another $47 million will be used on silos.
The Pentagon quietly filed a request with Congress to shift the money from other areas of its budget in September, and both Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford and Mattis teased the move in congressional testimony. “With these additions — and others — to our nation’s missile defenses, Kim Jong Un should know that we will shoot down any nuclear ICBM that threatens our citizens, our troops, or our allies,” Sullivan said in a statement.
UGLY WIN: Thornberry said the U.S. would win in a war against North Korea, but the result would be “ugly.” North Korea will mark the founding day of its ruling Korean Workers’ Party tomorrow, stoking concern that the communist regime could launch another missile, thus heightening tensions with the U.S. and the international community.
“The No. 1 answer is we need more missile defense right now to protect ourselves and our allies,” Thornberry said on “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo.” Thornberry said the U.S. should put more military ships and aircraft “on China’s doorstep” to encourage that country to be more aggressive with North Korea as Pyongyang threatens nuclear war against the U.S. “Look, it may come to military confrontation. We can win, but it will be ugly,” he said. “But the way to prevent war is to be strong.”
MORE FALLOUT FROM IRAN DECISION: Trump’s expected announcement next week on the fate of the Iran nuclear agreement could export to an already dysfunctional Congress a debate that continues to divide the White House and worry American allies.
Trump is expected to decertify the deal as early as Thursday by declaring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as it is formally known, in violation of U.S. interests.
In doing so, he will open a 60-day window for members of Congress to reimpose sanctions that were lifted by the Obama administration in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment and centrifuges. And while the move would please the Republicans who have called on Trump to decertify the nuclear deal by the Oct. 15 deadline, some members have indicated that they will not push sanctions legislation until they gauge Tehran’s appetite for renegotiating problematic aspects of the JCPOA. Sarah Westwood has more on the ramifications here.
CAN THIS MARRIAGE BE SAVED? Relations between the U.S. and key NATO ally Turkey continue to sour, as the State Department publicly accuses Ankara of not protecting the American embassy. The statement followed the arrest of an employee of the US consulate in Istanbul on charges the U.S. called “without merit.” The U.S. shut down a wide range of services between the countries in response to the Turkish government’s actions, including suspending non-immigrant visa services at its diplomatic facilities in Turkey. That prompted Turkey to halt visa services in the U.S. in a tit-for-tat move.
The U.S. Embassy in the capital of Ankara tweeted a statement from the U.S. Mission to Turkey saying that recent events have forced it to “reassess the commitment of the Government of Turkey to the security of U.S. Mission facilities and personnel.”
SOLDIERS KILLED IN NIGER: We learned Friday a fourth U.S. soldier was killed along with three Army Green Berets during a mission last week in Niger. The American Special Forces soldiers were on a reconnaissance patrol as part of what the command described as an advise-and-assist mission with Nigerien forces on Wednesday when they were ambushed by an enemy the command declined to identify, according to U.S. Africa Command.
A two-day search-and-rescue effort located the body of the fourth soldier. “The mission was not meant as an engagement with the enemy, it was meant to establish relations with the local leaders,” said Col. Mark Cheadle, an Africa Command spokesman. “The threat at the time was deemed to be unlikely, so there was no overhead armed air cover during the engagement.”
The ambush occurred about 124 miles north of the capital Niamey in southwest Niger, which borders Mali and Nigeria. The U.S. has several hundred troops and a drone base in the country where the Islamic State and al Qaeda splinter groups have sprouted. The military has increased its presence in that region in recent years to counter extremist groups. Roughly a dozen U.S. troops were working with the local forces, for a total mission size of about 40 troops. Cheadle said there was no indication that the Nigeriens tipped off the enemy attackers or that any foreign enemy fighters were involved.
“Frankly at this point, I don’t want to name a particular entity because I don’t want to give them any sort of feeling of success,” Cheadle said.
ICYMI: A roundup of stories from Friday:
CIA Director Mike Pompeo floated as replacement for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson: Report
Jeanne Shaheen asks Senate committee to hold hearing on Russian NSA hack
Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl expected to plead guilty, avoid trial
US approves $15 billion sale of THAAD missile launchers to Saudi Arabia
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: ISIS fighters, having pledged to fight or die, surrender en masse
Bloomberg: Lawmakers Block Mini-Satellites That Could Spy on North Korea
AP: Trial in Kim murder visits lab to examine VX-tainted clothes
USNI News: VIDEO: Timelapse of USS John S. McCain loaded on heavy lift transport
Defense One: The U.S. Army’s reset is underway — and threatened by budget chaos
Task and Purpose: Army IDs soldiers killed and injured in Fort Jackson incident
Roll Call: Podcast: The Trump doctrine on foreign policy
Military.com: Marines deploying counter-drone task force in Middle East
AP: It’s not independence, but Syria’s Kurds entrench self-rule
Stars and Stripes: Rumor of Iraq village’s death left U.S. veterans searching for answers
Defense News: Canadian-U.S. Super Hornet dispute could spark trade war
New York Times: Erik Prince, Blackwater Founder, Weighs Primary Challenge to Wyoming Republican
Washington Post: Navy and Air Force play a college football classic worthy of tears
Calendar
MONDAY | OCT. 9
7 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Place NW. 2017 Association of the U.S. Army annual meeting and exposition with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis; Gen. Robert Abrams, leader of Army Forces Command; and Gen. James C. McConville, Army vice chief of staff. ausameetings.org
7:40 p.m. 1330 Maryland Ave. SW. The 2017 Fortune magazine Most Powerful Women Summit with Marillyn Hewson, president of Lockheed Martin, and Ivanka Trump. Fortuneconferences.com
TUESDAY | OCT. 10
7 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Place NW. 2017 Association of the U.S. Army annual meeting and exposition with Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley; acting Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy; and Sergeant Major of the Army Daniel A. Dailey. ausameetings.org
8 a.m. 1919 North Lynn St. Quarterly procurement division meeting. ndia.org
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Formulating national security strategy with retired Lt. Gen. Robert Schmidle, the former deputy director of DOD’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation; Andrew Hoehn, senior vice president at the Rand Corp.; and Christine Wormuth, former under secretary of defense for policy. csis.org
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The path forward for dealing with North Korea. brookings.edu
10:30 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Afghanistan going forward, whether to surge, negotiate or get out, with Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Stephen Biddle, professor at George Washington University; and Maxwell Pappas, a U.S. Army major with three combat tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. cato.org
11 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Kurdish crisis: Baghdad, Irbil, and institutional reform in Iraq with Stuart Jones, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq. atlanticcouncil.org
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book discussion on “Illusions of Victory: The Anbar Awakening and the Rise of the Islamic State” with author Carter Malkasian. csis.org
2:45 p.m. p.m. 1330 Maryland Ave. SW. The 2017 Fortune magazine Most Powerful Women Summit with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. fortuneconferences.com
3:30 p.m. Cannon 121. The Iran nuclear deal and assessing the impact of de-certification. cato.org
5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. The National Security Council at 75 and charting the future of America’s security with H.R. McMaster, national security advisor, and former national security advisors Henry Kissinger, Stephen Hadley, and retired Gen. James L. Jones. csis.org
5:30 p.m. 1234 9th St. NW. Cocktails and conversations: Lessons from the Eastern front with Col. Patrick Ellis, commander of the Army’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment, and Maj. Gen. Steven Shapiro, commanding general of the Army’s 21st Theater Sustainment Command. defenseone.com
WEDNESDAY | OCT. 11
7 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Place NW. 2017 Association of the U.S. Army annual meeting and exposition with Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan; Ellen Lord, under secretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics; acting Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy; and Gen. Robert Brown, commander U.S. Army Pacific. ausameetings.org
8 a.m. 12777 Fair Lakes Circle. TRI-Association Small Business Advisory Panel (TRIAD) conference. ndia.org
8:30 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A discussion with Rep. Rick Larsen and Rep. Don Bacon on U.S. defense needs and priorities. brookings.edu
9 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Global business briefing with Michael T. Strianese, chairman and CEO of L3 Technologies. defenseone.com
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Drones under Trump. stimson.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. policy toward Lebanon with Michael Ratney, deputy assistant secretary of state. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2154. Subcommittee hearing on security clearance investigation challenges and reforms with Garry Reid, director for defense intelligence. oversight.house.gov
5 p.m. 815 Connecticut Ave. NW. Cyber risk Wednesday: Building a more defensible cyberspace. atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | OCT. 12
8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Maj. Gen. Stephen Farmen, Army Security Assistance Command. centermediasecurity.org
9:30 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Markup hearing on the Iran Ballistic Missiles and International Sanctions Enforcement Act. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A looming national security crisis of young Americans unable to join the military with Major Gen. Jeffrey Snow, commanding general of U.S. Army Recruiting Command, and Rep. Don Bacon. heritage.org
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Is This the beginning of the end for the Iran nuclear accord? wilsoncenter.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. What’s next for the U.S. Iran policy. heritage.org
2 p.m. House Visitor Center 210. Empty threat or serious danger: Assessing North Korea’s risk to the homeland. homeland.house.gov
MONDAY | OCT. 16
11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Terror, propaganda and the birth of the “new man”: Experiences from Cuba, North Korea and the Soviet Union. cato.org
