THE HIMARS FACTOR: Ukraine has only a small number of the satellite-guided U.S. rocket artillery system known as HIMARS, an acronym for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, a shoot-and-scoot mobile launcher that can put a munition on a target with precision accuracy.
On Friday, the Pentagon pledged four more of the Lockheed Martin systems, which would bring Ukraine’s total to an even dozen. The HIMARS are part of a $400 million package of arms and ammunition that includes 1,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery shells, which are said to have greater precision.
Despite the small number of HIMARS in the battle, they are having an outsize impact, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “HIMARS have already made a HUUUGE difference on the battlefield,” Reznikov tweeted over the weekend. “More of them as well as [US] ammo & equipment will increase our strength and help to demilitarize the terrorist state.”
In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have used the deadly-accurate HIMARS system to target Russian ammunition depots, destroying as many as 20, according to media reports from Kyiv and social media posts.
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION COMMITS ANOTHER $400 MILLION TO UKRAINE
THE COMING BATTLE IN THE SOUTH: President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly ordered an all-out counteroffensive to retake areas along its southern coast lost to Russia in the first weeks of the war.
Reznikov told The Times of London that he is in the process of massing a million-strong fighting force, equipped with Western weapons, that would be made up of all elements of national defense, including police and the local defense forces.
“We understand that, politically, it’s very necessary for our country. The president has given the order to the supreme military chief to draw up plans,” Reznikov told the British newspaper. “This is my job. I’m writing letters to counterparts in partner countries, the generals talk about why we need.”
RUSSIA MISSILES RIP THROUGH APARTMENTS IN EASTERN UKRAINE, KILLING AT LEAST 15
QUICK STUDIES: One of the reasons the U.S. didn’t send its best weapons to Ukraine at the outset of the war is that it was believed they were too sophisticated and it would take too long to train Ukrainian soldiers how to use them.
On Friday, a senior military official admitted he has been blown away by how fast the Ukrainians learned how to use the HIMARS and how they have been deployed to maximum effect. “It’s impressive,” he said.
“For our artillerymen, we send them to a school out at Fort Sill, they go through several months of training and then they employ them,” the official told reporters in a briefing. “In this case, the Ukrainians have literally come out of contact and they’ve taken a course and they are employing in a way that we would want to do so in our own fights.”
PENTAGON MAINTAINS UKRAINIAN MILITARY ASSISTANCE WON’T HURT US READINESS
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THE BIG QUESTION: Can Ukraine win? No one knows, of course, and outside experts are predictably split.
Former Supreme NATO Commander retired Gen. Wesley Clark is among the pessimists. He believes the U.S. and Western aid is not being provided nearly fast enough to give Ukraine a real fighting chance, and he worries that at some point, the numerically superior Russian forces will break through Ukraine’s line of defense.
“With Russian reserves being formed up, some 20 to 40 battalion groups have been held back, there could be a strategic breakthrough,” Clark said on CNN over the weekend. “That breakthrough could result in mobile warfare over relatively dried-out terrain, and it could be the key to getting the Ukrainian army defeated in Donbas.”
“They have fought … a very bloody fight in the east. It’s been a slugfest,” said retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling in an appearance with Clark. “But remember, Russia started this second phase of their campaign in early April. It is now mid-July. They have not moved in an excessive distance. They have not taken that much ground.”
The debate about how the war will go centers largely around the question of whether Russia can sustain its offensive as it continues to suffer heavy casualties.
“The Ukrainians have really struggled, to be honest, because they’re outmanned, and they’re outgunned,” said retired Army Maj. John Spencer, a scholar who studies urban warfare, in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “But they have made some amazing stands in places like Severodonetsk, where it took the Russians six weeks to really take a very small Ukrainian force. And they sacrificed, I think, around 5,000 soldiers to do it.”
“I’m not going to say the Russians didn’t advance, but the Ukrainians made them pay for that land pretty hard,” said a senior military officer at the Pentagon. “And I’ve got to think that if I took the number of casualties that the Russians took to gain that portion of ground, I’d probably have to stop and refit.”
Asked whether Russian troops were suffering from flagging morale, the former commander said, “Anytime over the past two years, whenever I adjusted the mask policy on post, I impacted morale. I can’t imagine taking casualties on the level that the Russians have taken them and not having a morale problem.”
PUTIN’S DEFIANCE: If Russian president Vladimir Putin is having any second thoughts about his costly foray into Ukraine, he’s not showing it publicly.
In a meeting with members of the Russian Duma last week, Putin was defiant. “Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try,” he said.
“We have already heard a lot about the West wanting to fight us ‘to the last Ukrainian.’ This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but that seems to be where it is going. But everyone should know that, by and large, we have not started anything in earnest yet.”
“But here is what I would like to make clear. They should have realized that they would lose from the very beginning of our special military operation,” he said. “Everyone should understand that this process cannot be stopped. The course of history is inexorable, and the collective West’s attempts to impose its new world order on the rest of the world are doomed.”
FIRST RUSSIAN ‘DOOMSDAY’ SUBMARINE WITH NUCLEAR DRONES ENTERS ACTIVE SERVICE
WILL BIDEN SHAKE HANDS WITH MBS? As President Joe Biden heads to Saudi Arabia this week for a meeting of Middle Eastern leaders, all eyes will be on how he interacts with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, and the person the U.S. believes was behind the brutal murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The Biden administration is trying to walk a thin line between condemning Saudi Arabia for human rights abuses while courting its cooperation on other common interests.
“In Saudi Arabia, we reversed the blank-check policy we inherited. I released the intelligence community’s report on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, issued new sanctions, including on the Saudi Arabia’s Rapid Intervention Force involved in his killing, and issued 76 visa bans under a new rule barring entry into the United States for anyone found to be involved in harassing dissidents abroad,” Biden wrote in an op-ed published Sunday in the Washington Post.
“From the start, my aim was to reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years,” he said. “Today, Saudi Arabia has helped to restore unity among the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, has fully supported the truce in Yemen and is now working with my experts to help stabilize oil markets with other OPEC producers.”
BIDEN DEFENDS TRIP TO SAUDI ARABIA, TOUTING US SECURITY INTERESTS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden administration commits another $400 million to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Pentagon maintains Ukrainian military assistance won’t hurt US readiness
Washington Examiner: Russia missiles rip through apartments in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 15
Washington Examiner: Germany moves to reactivate coal plants out of fear of Russia cutting off gas
Washington Examiner: UK navy seized Iranian weapons from smugglers twice this year
Washington Examiner: Biden speaks with Whelan family after outcry over ‘uneven’ Griner treatment
Washington Examiner: First Russian ‘doomsday’ submarine with nuclear drones enters active service
Washington Examiner: US tells China its support for Russia complicates relations
Washington Examiner: Fighter jet blows off USS Truman during bad weather
Washington Examiner: US sailor found dead on board the USS Carl Vinson in California
Washington Examiner: Steve Bannon tells Jan. 6 committee he is willing to testify
Washington Examiner: Army cuts off unvaccinated soldiers from service, threatening pay and benefits
Washington Examiner: Retired three-star general Gary Volesky suspended for tweet mocking Jill Biden
Washington Examiner: Biden defends trip to Saudi Arabia, touting US security interests
Washington Post: Opinion: Joe Biden: Why I’m going to Saudi Arabia
New York Times: Russia Uses ‘Stealth Mobilization’ To Avoid Draft
New York Times: Russia Redoubles Attacks In Donetsk Province After Securing Luhansk
New York Times: Blinken Presses His Chinese Counterpart About The War.
AP: China Demands End To U.S.-Taiwan Military ‘Collusion’
Washington Post: North Korea Stopped Boasting About Missile Tests. Analysts Wonder Why.
Washington Post: Michael Flynn cited for unauthorized foreign payments
Stars and Stripes: RIMPAC Showcases Resolve To Ensure An Open Indo-Pacific, Navy Commander Says
Defense Daily: Marine Corps’ Medium-Range Intercept Capability Prototype Takes Out Simultaneous Targets In Latest Test
Air Force Magazine: DOD Air Defenses to Ukraine Still ‘Several Months’ Away as Aid Planning Turns to ‘Years’
Air Force Magazine: X-37B Space Plane Eclipses Its Record for Longest Flight
Forbers: The Air Force Is Retiring Most of Its Global Hawk ISR Drones to a Test Role for Hypersonic Missiles
19fortyfive.com: The Secrets of Russia’s Artillery War in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Strategy to Win in Ukraine Is Clear: Artillery Strike the Innocent
Task & Purpose: We Salute This Marine For Having A Promotion Ceremony In The Muck
Calendar
MONDAY | JULY 11
9 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr. — National Defense Industrial Association All Domain Warfare Symposium, with Acting Assistant Defense Secretary for Acquisition Tanya Skeen; and Douglas Bush, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology https://tinyurl.com/yck8z6dx
10 a.m. — Foundation for Middle East Peace and Jewish Currents virtual discussion: “Mr. Biden Goes to the Middle East,” with Dana El Kurd, assistant professor at the University of Richmond; Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Lara Friedman, FMEP president; and Peter Beinart, editor-at-large of Jewish Currents https://fmep.org/event/23959/
12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “Biden in the Middle East: Opportunities and Challenges,” with Ebtesam al-Ketbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center; Tamar Hermann, senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute; Dennis Ross, WINEP counselor and fellow and former special assistant to President Obama; and Robert Satloff, WINEP executive director https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis
1 p.m. Oceanside, California — House Veterans’ Affairs Economic Opportunity Subcommittee field hearing: “Ending Veteran Hunger: Examining the Impact of COVID-19 on Food Insecurity,” with Anne Utech, national director of nutrition and food services at the Veterans Affairs Department; Matthew Rabbitt, research economist at the Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service; Robert Smith, director of the San Diego VA Health Care System; Kimberly Gallo, director of aging and independence services at the Health and Human Services Agency, County of San Diego; Anahid Brakke, CEO and president of the SD Hunger Coalition; Casey Castillo, interim CEO of the Jacobs/Cushman San Diego Food Bank; Karla Samayoa, director of safety net services at 211 San Diego; Anthony Stewart, CEO of US4Warriors; and Lindsey Seegers, director of external affairs at Kitchens for Good https://veterans.house.gov/events/hearings/ending-veteran-hunger
1 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Getting the Intel Right,” focusing on Russia, China and the Middle East,” with former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper; and David Miller, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/11/carnegie-connects
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Australia Chair webcast: “The U.S.-Australia Alliance: Aligning Priorities in the Indo-Pacific,” with Deputy Australian Prime Minister Richard Marles; and Charles Edel, Australia chair and senior adviser, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/us-australia-alliance-aligning-priorities
3 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Debra and Marc Tice on efforts to secure the release of their son, Austin Tice, who was kidnapped in Syria in August of 2012. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
TUESDAY | JULY 12
10 a.m. 390 Cannon — House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol Full committee hearing on the January 6th Investigation. https://january6th.house.gov
10 a.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “Previewing President Biden’s Middle East Trip,” with Linda Robinson, RAND Corporation senior policy researcher; Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies; and Giorgio Cafiero, ASP adjunct fellow and CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation event: “Expert Perspectives on Russia/Ukraine Conflict, with Evelyn Farkas, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia; Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute; Seth Jones, senior vice president, director, International Security Program, CSIS; and Heather Penney, senior fellow for airpower studies. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Standing with Allies Against China and Russia,” with Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, D-Pa.; Dan Patt, senior fellow at Hudson’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and Bryan Clark, director of Hudson’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2133-virtual-event
2 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Policy Priorities for Biden’s Middle East Trip,” with Michael Makovsky, JINSA president and CEO; Eric Edelman, counselor at JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; John Hannah, senior fellow at JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; and Jonathan Ruhe, JINSA director of foreign policy https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Trusting the IC (Intelligence Community),” part of the “Future of the IC Workforce” series,” with Kelli Arena, chief of strategic communications at the National Security Agency; Neil Wiley, former principal executive in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Lindy Kyzer, director of content and public relations at ClearanceJobs.com https://www.insaonline.org/event/trusting-the-ic/
WEDNESDAY | JULY 13
10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Netherlands Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren to the Pentagon
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Middle East Missile Defense: Is the Drug Dealer Opening Rehab Clinics?” with Jonathan Schachter, senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; Can Kasapoglu, nonresident senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; and Michael Doran, director of the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/2131-virtual-event
1:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles to the Pentagon
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Security Assistance to Ukraine: The State Department’s Role,” with Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis; Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs Todd Robinson; and Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Kathryn Insley; and Dafna Rand, director of the State Department’s Office of Foreign Assistance https://www.csis.org/events/security-assistance-ukraine-state-departments-role
2 p.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee: “Protecting Military Servicemembers and Veterans from Financial Scams and Fraud” http://oversight.house.gov
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Advancing Soldier-First Modernization,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. John Morgan, partner at IBM Consulting; retired Army Col. John Kuenzli, human resources branch chief at IBM Federal and Army Account Solutions; Tom Saracene, regional vice president for sales at Salesforce; and Michael Parker, vice president and business development executive at Salesforce https://www.govexec.com/feature/Advancing-Soldier
3 p.m. 290 Wood Road, Annapolis, Maryland — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Maritime Security Dialogue: Naval Aviation Update,” with Navy Vice Adm. Kenneth Whitesell, commander of Naval Air Forces and commander of Naval Air Force at the U.S. Pacific Fleet; Navy Rear Adm. James Downey, program executive officer for aircraft carriers at the Navy; Rear Adm. Andrew Loiselle, director of Air Warfare Division, N98, in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; and Ward Carroll, director of outreach at the U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue-naval-aviation-update
3:15 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies book discussion: Degrade and Destroy: The Inside Story of the War Against the Islamic State, from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, with author Michael Gordon; retired Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; and moderator Bradley Bowman, senior director, FDD Center on Military and Political Power https://www.fdd.org/events/2022/07/13/degrade-and-destroy
THURSDAY | JULY 14
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference on “Homeland Cruise Missile Defense,” with Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerk, commander of the U.S. Northern Command; Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander of the U.S. Transportation Command; and Navy Adm. Charles Richard, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command https://www.csis.org/events/homeland-cruise-missile-defense
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Biden’s Trip to the Middle East: Objectives and Potential Outcomes,” with Cinzia Bianco, Gulf research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Zaha Hasan, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East Program; Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now; and Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Xi’s New Global Security Initiative,” with Manoj Kewalramani, chair of the Indo-Pacific research program at the Takshashila Institution; Sheena Chestnut Greitens, associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin’s School of Public Affairs; and Taylor Fravel, professor of political science and director at MIT’s Security Studies Program https://www.csis.org/events/xis-new-global-security-initiative
10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini to the Pentagon
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Regaining the High Ground against China,” with Diana Maurer, director, defense capabilities and management, Government Accountability Office; Derek Trunkey, principal analyst, Congressional Budget Office; Mark Gunzinger, director, future concepts and capability assessments, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute; and Timothy Walton, senior fellow, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-regaining-the-high-ground
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution discussion on “The National Defense Strategy and great power competition,” with former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; and Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-national-defense-strategy
2:30 p.m. 1200 16th St. N.W. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Richard Marles, deputy prime minister and defense minister of Australia https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I don’t want to over, you know, appear overly optimistic here, but history is full of examples of small countries like this who display their will and are able to hold their own. We celebrated one of them last Monday, and I’d like to think the Ukrainians were demonstrating the same to the rest of the world right now.”
A senior military official, briefing reporters at the Pentagon Friday.
