THE BEGINNING OF THE END?: The United States is reportedly close to announcing a deal with the Taliban under which it would withdraw thousands of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in return for an end to hostilities, a renunciation of al Qaeda, and, most important, a pledge to negotiate a final peace with the Afghan government, which in the past the terrorist group has labeled “an American puppet.”
The agreement could cut the number of American troops “from roughly 14,000 to between 8,000 and 9,000,” unnamed U.S. officials told the Washington Post, which would bring U.S. troop levels back down to what was in the country when President Trump took office.
KHALILZAD’S OPTIMISM: Zalmay Khalilzad, who as U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation is the point man in the effort to bring an end to the war that has raged for nearly 18 years, hinted in recent days a deal was near.
“Wrapping up my most productive visit to #Afghanistan since I took this job as Special Rep. The US and Afghanistan have agreed on next steps. And a negotiating team and technical support group are being finalized,” Khlaizad tweeted two days ago, adding that “if the Taliban do their part, we will do ours, and conclude the agreement we have been working on.”
In an interview Wednesday, Khalilzad said negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban will determine whether the September 28 presidential election will be held.
TRUMP: N. KOREA MISSILES ‘NO PROBLEM’: President Trump is unfazed by North Korea’s third launch of what appear to be short-range ballistic missiles in just over a week, telling reporters on the White House lawn, “I think it’s very much under control.”
“Short-range missiles, we never made an agreement on that. I have no problem. We’ll see what happens. But these are short-range missiles, they’re very standard.”
The ballistic missile tests are a direct violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718.
WHAT THEY FIRED: Experts say it appears two different systems were tested in the recent launches, the KN-23 missile, which is based on a Russian design, and a new 300mm multiple rocket launcher system.
According to North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency, Kim Jong Un was on hand for the Wednesday test of what it called a “newly-developed large-caliber multiple launch guided rocket system.”
“After learning about the result of the test-fire, he said that it is very great and it would be an inescapable distress to the forces becoming a fat target of the weapon,” according to an English translation of the report.
“Testing the 300mm MRL and the KN-23 enhances Pyongyang’s ability to strike at key air bases in the Republic of Korea [South Korea],” writes retired Army Col. David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “but the tests’ strategic significance lies in their expression of Kim’s confidence that the U.S. and ROK are unwilling to hold him accountable because their desire for negotiations far exceeds his own.”
POMPEO ON STALEMATE: Speaking at a meeting of ASEAN ministers in Bangkok, Thailand, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insisted the United States continues to hold North Korea accountable even as it pursues a diplomatic resolution.
“I think we’ve taken the toughest stance in all of recorded history” when it comes to enforcing U.N. resolutions, Pompeo said. “So you should never doubt what we may be communicating to the North Koreans. There are conversations going on, goodness, even as we speak. But the diplomatic path is often fraught with bumps, tos and fros, forward and backward.”
Asked if there might be a third Trump-Kim summit anytime soon, Pompeo said simply, “Stay tuned.”
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: INF EXPIRES: Citing years of Russian violations of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, President Trump gave the required six months notice in February to withdraw from the agreement, and as of today the United States is no longer bound by its limits on ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.
The State Department announced the end of the agreement in a statement from Secretary Pompeo, who placed the blame squarely on Russia for its refusal to destroy its SSC-8 ground-launched cruise missile, which he says violates the landmark Cold War-era treaty.
“Russia is solely responsible for the treaty’s demise,” Pompeo said, noting Moscow “systematically rebuffed six years of U.S. efforts seeking Russia’s return to compliance.“
“With the full support of our NATO Allies, the United States has determined Russia to be in material breach of the treaty, and has subsequently suspended our obligations under the treaty. Over the past six months, the United States provided Russia a final opportunity to correct its noncompliance. As it has for many years, Russia chose to keep its noncompliant missile rather than going back into compliance with its treaty obligations.”
“Russia bears sole responsibility for the demise of the Treaty,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels. “We regret that Russia has shown no willingness and taken no demonstrable steps to return to compliance with its international obligations.”
But Stoltenberg said NATO would not deploy its own land-based missiles in Europe. “We will not mirror what Russia does. We do not want a new arms race.”
END OF AN ERA: Arms control advocates very much worry the demise of the INF will spark a new arms race, and the United States is reportedly poised to test its own version of a land-based cruise missile, writes Russ Read in the Washington Examiner.
In ending the treaty, Trump said in February, “We really have no choice,” arguing that you can’t have an arms control agreement that only one side is upholding.
But the United States also saw the treaty as an obsolete bilateral agreement in a multilateral world. It applied only to America and Russia, not China, which unconstrained by the treaty has become the world’s leader in short- and intermediate-range ground-launched missiles.
NOT A FAREWELL TO ARMS CONTROL: While today marks the end of one treaty, “it does not mark the end of arms control or nonproliferation efforts,” Republican senators Jim Inhofe and Jim Risch wrote in a statement issued last night. “The United States will continue to uphold current treaty commitments and remain open to supporting new frameworks that enhance international security,” say Inhofe, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Risch, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“As we approach the NATO Summit in London in December, we encourage the Administration to work with our NATO allies to focus on cooperative efforts to develop and field capabilities to defend against cruise missiles, such as those fielded by the Russian military in violation of the treaty.”
CNO CONFIRMED: By voice vote, the full Senate confirmed Vice Adm. Mike Gilday to get his fourth star and serve as the next chief of naval operations. Gilday’s quick confirmation, one day after his hearing, is in contrast to Air Force Gen. John Hyten, whose nomination was forwarded by the Armed Services Committee but won’t get a vote until the Senate comes back in session next month.
Hyten — who is under the cloud of sexual assault allegations he denies and an Air Force investigation did not corroborate — has had his nomination placed on the Senate’s executive calendar, “subject to nominee’s commitment to respond to requests to appear and testify before any duly constituted committee of the Senate.”
DEMS OPPOSE DNI NOMINEE: Senate Democrats are gearing up to oppose President Trump’s pick to be the next director of national intelligence. Yesterday President Trump called Texas Republican congressman John Ratcliffe “an outstanding man” who is “highly respected by everybody that knows him.”
Democrats say Ratcliffe doesn’t meet the statutory requirement for the DNI to have extensive experience in intelligence and accuse him of inflating his résumé as a federal prosecutor working on terrorism cases.
“He strikes me as extremely unqualified in every way,” said Minority Leader Chuck Schumer yesterday. “I could hardly think of a worse choice than him, padding résumé or not.”
“You know, this is serious; this is about war and peace. If we don’t have a DNI who speaks truth to power, who first is able to cull the facts and come up with an unbiased view of what they say and, in an unvarnished way, can tell the president, we’re in a much more dangerous world than they would have been,” Schumer said.
NOT A FAN OF ZARIF: National security adviser John Bolton lit into Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif yesterday in an appearance on Fox Business Network’s Mornings With Maria.
“He’s really Iran’s equivalent of P.T. Barnum. You know, there’s a sucker born every minute, and he’s found suckers in the United States, in Europe. He got them to agree to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” Bolton told host Maria Bartiromo. “He’s not a diplomat. He’s a con man. He’s a shill. He’s a grifter.”
“I think the idea that he’s a serious interlocutor with the United States is just false. The real decision-maker in Iran is the ayatollah, Khamenei. They call him the supreme leader. That’s a good title to keep in mind. Zarif is just a mouthpiece,” Bolton said.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: The ticking time bomb of Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Al Qaeda ‘as strong as it has ever been’ and ISIS spreading, top US counterterrorism official warns
CNN: Top US Navy SEAL tells commanders in letter: ‘We have a problem’
Washington Post: Wary of Amazon, President Disrupts DoD Contract
Stars and Stripes: Syria Says It Agrees to Cease-Fire in Rebel Stronghold
New York Times: Europeans React Coolly to American Request for Escorts to Ships in Gulf
USNI News: Iran Tanker Seizures Pushing U.K. Royal Navy to Its Limits as New PM Takes Charge
Reuters: Pompeo Jabs at China’s ‘Bad Behavior’, Defends U.S. Tariffs
The Diplomat: China’s New Carrier to Begin New Round of Sea Trials This Week
Washington Examiner: Army spending a half-billion to teach soldiers to fight in sewers and subway systems
Wall Street Journal: Israeli Jets Appear to Have Struck Iraq for the First Time Since 1981
USNI News: Amphibious Assault Ship Tripoli’s Delivery Pushed to Late 2019 or Early 2020
Seapower: HII Continues Planning for Midlife Refueling, Overhaul of USS John C. Stennis
Virginian-Pilot: Huntington Ingalls Vows to Cure “Hiccups”
Calendar
FRIDAY | AUGUST 2
2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies “Japan-U.S. Military Statesmen Forum 2019,” with retired Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Michael Mullen; retired U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Vincent Brooks; retired Japanese chief of staff Gen. Shigeru Iwasaki; retired Japanese chief of staff Gen. Ryoichi Oriki; retired Japanese chief of staff Adm. Katsutoshi Kawano; former director of national intelligence Adm. Dennis Blair; and Yoichi Funabashi, chairman of the Asia Pacific Initiative. www.csis.org/events
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“He’s really Iran’s equivalent of P.T. Barnum. You know, there’s a sucker born every minute, and he’s found suckers in the United States, in Europe. He got them to agree to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. He’s not a diplomat. He’s a con man. He’s a shill. He’s a grifter.”
National security adviser John Bolton on Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, speaking on Fox Business Network’s Mornings With Maria.
