Pence, Mattis to put the heat on Germany

Mattis and German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen are both scheduled to give opening remarks, followed by debates on the future of the European Union, NATO and the West. Tomorrow Merkel, Pence and UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the conference.

Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain traditionally leads a bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers to the annual event at Munich’s Hotel Bayerischer Hof. This year’s group includes Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse, Lindsey Graham, Dan Sullivan, Ben Sasse, David Perdue, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, Mark Warner, Jeanne Shaheen, Marco Rubio and Gary Peters, along with Reps. Seth Moulton, Mike McCaul, Mike Turner and Ted Deutch. That’s six Democrats and eight Republicans. McCain is scheduled to take part in a panel today titled, “The End of the West as We Know It,” along with Polish President Andrzej Duda, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Dutch Foreign Minister Bert Koenders. You can follow the events at the conference website here.

HARWARD DECLINES THE HONOR: Retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward has turned down President Trump’s offer to take over as national security adviser, a senior administration official confirmed to the Washington Examiner on Thursday evening. “I spent 40 years as a Naval Officer where I was deployed and in combat for the bulk of my life. Since retiring I have the opportunity to address financial and family issues that would have been challenging in this position. Like all service members understand, and live, this job requires 24 hours a day, 7 days a week focus and commitment to do it right. I currently could not make that commitment,” Harward wrote in a statement. “My thoughts and prayers are with those that carry such heavy burdens and responsibility for taking care of our country’s national security concerns. God bless this great country of ours.”

Some reports suggested that Harward was put off by the “chaos” of the Trump White House and over questions about whether he would have a clear line of communication to the president, and be free to clean house, purging the National Security Council staff of Flynn loyalists. CNN quotes a friend of Harward as saying the former SEAL privately called the situation a “shit sandwich.” While some say Trump may yet try to persuade Harward to change his mind, the decision would seem to dash the hopes of rounding out Mattis’ “dream team” with another senior officer who was a both a friend and ally. Speaking of chaos, it’s only slightly ironic that Mattis’s preferred nickname is “Chaos,” and at his news conference yesterday, Tump flatly denied there was any chaos in his White House. “I see stories of chaos. Chaos,” Trump said. “Yet it is the exact opposite. This administration is running like a fine-tuned machine, despite the fact that I can’t get my Cabinet approved.”

All eyes will now shift toward the other two men reportedly on Trump’s short list for national security adviser: retired Gen. David Petraeus and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who’s running the NSC on an acting basis.

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HAPPENING TODAY: One day after workers at Boeing’s South Carolina plant rejected union representation, Trump is scheduled to visit the plant today, en route to his Mar-a-Lago estate to witness the rollout of Boeing’s new 787-10 Dreamliner passenger jet, the latest and biggest version of the Dreamliner line. “Going to Charleston, South Carolina, in order to spend time with Boeing and talk jobs! Look forward to it,” he tweeted this morning.

F-35: GREAT PLANE? OR GREATEST EVER? The top aviation officers of the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps couldn’t stop gushing about the fabulous F-35 at a congressional oversight hearing yesterday. “We can’t get into those airplanes fast enough,” said Lt. Gen. Jon Davis, deputy commandant for Marine aviation, testifying before a House subcommittee. “I’m becoming increasingly convinced that we have a game changer, a war winner on our hands.” Davis bragged that both in real world operations and training exercises, the F-35B was vanquishing the F/A-18. “I have not seen anything like this in the entire history of my time.”

CHEAPER BY THE HUNDREDS: Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan, the head of the F-35 Joint Program Office, told lawmakers yesterday that the Air Force’s version of Lockheed Martin’s F-35, which is also the one used by most international partners, could cost between $80-85 million per plane by fiscal 2019 (it’s $94.6 million now). He also told Congress that using block buys to buy more planes at once could save about $2 billion over the next three lots of jets to be negotiated in fiscal 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Bogdan also confirmed at the hearing that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg was on an F-35-related phone call between himself and then President-elect Trump in early January, but stressed that no decisions were made during the call. Rep. Mike Turner didn’t seem to mind Trump reaching out to Bogdan directly, instead of going through the chain of command. “I know having spoken to you personally that you’re up to the task and I’m glad he picks up the phone and calls you,” Turner said.

NO RUSSIA RESPONSE: Trump said he won’t say what he plans to do about the latest Russian provocations, which range from the serious (the deployment of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in violation of a Cold War-era arms treaty) to the curious (a Russian spy ship has been lurking off the East Coast this week). “I’m not going to tell you anything about what I’m going to do,” he told reporters at his marathon news conference yesterday. He was responding to a question about reports that the Russian spy ship Viktor Leonov had been spotted 70 miles off the coast of Delaware and later 30 miles off Connecticut. “The greatest thing I could do is shoot that ship that’s 30 miles out right out of the water,” Trump said. “Everybody in this country would be ‘oh, that’s so great.’ That’s not great. That’s not great. I would love to be able to get along with Russia.” Trump wasn’t serious about sinking the Russian ship, which would be an act of war, since the ship has every right to sail in international waters. Rather he was saying that by rising to the bait, he would be foreclosing the option of actually finding some common ground with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I love to negotiate things, I do it really well, and all that stuff. But – but it’s possible I won’t be able to get along with Putin.”

MATTIS NOT READY TO ALLY WITH MOSCOW: As he wrapped up meetings with fellow NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Mattis said it’s too soon to consider any joint military operations with Russia. “We are not in a position right now to collaborate on a military level,” said Mattis at a news conference. “But our political leaders will engage and try to find common ground or a way forward where Russia, living up to its commitments, will return to a partnership of sorts here with NATO,” adding “Russia is going to have to prove itself first and live up to the commitments they have made in the Russia-NATO agreement.”

Meanwhile at a meeting at the G-20 summit in Bonn, Germany, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson emerged from a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov expressing a similar sentiment. “As I made clear in my Senate confirmation hearing, the United States will consider working with Russia where we can find areas of practical cooperation that will benefit the American people,” Tillerson said in brief remarks. “Where we do not see eye to eye, the United States will stand up for the interests and values of America and her allies. As we search for new common ground, we expect Russia to honor its commitment to the Minsk agreements and work to de-escalate the violence in the Ukraine.”

In Brussels, Mattis also offered that he harbors no doubt that Russia routinely attempts to influence elections on other countries. “Right now I would just say there’s very little doubt that they have either interfered or they have attempted to interfere in a number of elections in the democracies.”

TROOPS TO SYRIA: Mattis also said he’s not ready to make any recommendation about possibly sending more troops to Syria or Iraq, until he has had a chance to confer with more allies and his own commanders. “I first want to talk to the other allies and we’ll decide where we’re going,” Mattis said in answer to a reporter’s question in which he also revealed he will soon be traveling to the region. “I’m going to fly from here into the Middle East,” he said. “Once we know that we have a mutual appreciation of the situation, then we’ll go forward.” Pentagon sources say there are a number of options on the table that could result in more “enabling” forces being sent into Syria to help local forces, including artillery units and logistical support.

STILL IN THE LINE OF FIRE? Mike Flynn denied to the FBI that he discussed sanctions in that phone call with Ambassador Sergey Kislyak, according to a multiple reports. In theory, that could put the fired national security adviser in legal jeopardy, since lying to the FBI is a felony. But since we haven’t seen the transcripts of the call, we don’t what “incomplete information,” Flynn gave Pence. Unnamed current and former U.S. officials told the Washington Post that during a Jan. 24 interview with FBI agents that Flynn said he never mentioned sanctions. That tracks with what Flynn told the Daily Caller before he resigned, insisting in an interview that they talked about the 35 Russians who were kicked out of the country by President Obama, not sanctions per se.

At his news conference, Trump again insisted Flynn had broken no laws. “I fired him because of what he said to Mike Pence. Very simple,” Trump said. “Mike was doing his job.” In an op-ed this morning, Charles Krauthammer (who Trump cited again yesterday quoted as an authority in the Flynn case) called the whole affair “the first recorded instance of a coverup in the absence of a crime.” Any decision to prosecute Flynn would fall to the Justice Department, but CNN reported yesterday that Flynn’s FBI interviewers don’t believe he intentionally misled them, and do not intend to press charges.

BRIEFING REQUEST: Two top Democrats are demanding a briefing for congressional leadership and members of both House and Senate intelligence panels on Flynn’s relationship with Russia, as well as unredacted transcripts of his phone calls with Russian officials. Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff, who is also ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, asked for the “comprehensive” briefing by Feb. 28 in a letter to the acting director of national intelligence.

SPY AGENCY REVIEW: Trump is expected to ask New York hedge fund manager Stephen Feinberg to lead a close review of U.S. intelligence agencies, which the president has accused of leaking sensitive information to members of the press, Gabby Morrongiello writes. Feinberg, a member of the president’s economic advisory council, has remained close to several senior White House aides and Trump himself. If tapped for the role, he will join them inside the West Wing for the duration of the review.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: The fiscal 2017 defense supplemental spending bill is due to the Office of Management and Budget by March 1, but Rep. Mac Thornberry, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, said he’d like to see it by then, too. “The fiscal year is marching ahead, so to have any hope of spending the money efficiently, we need to get it done quickly,” Thornberry told reporters on Thursday. “So we have encouraged them to get that to us by March 1 … and got a pretty positive response.”

Other rough dates to watch out for in the coming months: Thornberry said he’s expecting the committee to hold its marathon, all-night markup of the fiscal 2018 National Defense Authorization Act sometime in May. That means we can expect to see his stand-alone bill of acquisition reform proposals about a month before in April, giving industry and the Pentagon a month to put their two cents in.

NEW TRAVEL BAN COMING: The 9th Circuit Court of appeals is standing down, and won’t review the ruling of its three-judge panel that blocked implementation of Trump’s executive order barring entry to the U.S. from seven countries. Trump plans to rescind that order, and replace it with a new one specifically crafted to overcome the constitutional issues that doomed the first effort. “We’re tailoring it now to the decision, we have some of the best lawyers in the country working on it,” Trump said, adding the new order will be announced next week.

LUNCH CRUNCH PROTEST: At least seven restaurants in the Pentagon were closed on Thursday as a result of the “Day Without Immigrants” strike, which encouraged immigrants to skip work as a way to protest Trump’s immigration policies. Other eateries stayed open longer to make sure none of the Pentagon’s 23,000 workers missed a meal. No one should to have to go to war on an empty stomach.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Industry offers come up short in Air Force’s Huey replacement program

UPI: GE Aviation reveals $4B investment in U.S. operations

Reuters: France says U.S. position on Middle East peace ‘confused and worrying’

Military.com: Major Deployments to Syria, Afghanistan Unlikely: Thornberry

USNI News: Panel to Senate: Moving U.S. Forces Forward Key to Deterring Russia, China

Stars and Stripes: Lawmakers urge Marines to clear platoon exonerated of killing Afghans

Washington Post: 12th Navy official arrested in connection with ‘Fat Leonard’ scandal

Task and Purpose: The Marine Corps Wants To Buy 11,000 M27 Infantry Automatic Rifles

New York Times: Is 2-State Solution Dead? In Israel, a Debate Over What’s Next

Omaha World Herald: Airman at Offutt detailed killing of fellow service member in journal, agent testifies at hearing

Calendar

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 21

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses defense priorities in the Trump administration. brookings.edu

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A panel talks about the future prospects for the Iran nuclear deal. heritage.org

2 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Center for a New American Security CEO Michele Flournoy sits on a panel to discuss the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and how it should be modified. cnas.org

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23

8 a.m. 1800 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington, Va. Allison Stiller, the assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition, speaks at a Navy League breakfast event. navyleague.org

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein speaks at a military strategy forum. csis.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford talks about global threats and U.S. national security priorities. brookings.edu

12 p.m. Rayburn 2168. Cato Institute experts talk about whether it’s time to conduct another round of base realignment and closures. cato.org

2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A panel discusses efforts to develop a global standard for drones. stimson.org