SEEKING CLEAR AUTHORITY FOR WAR: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this evening about the possibility of a new congressional war authorization following the deadly ambush on U.S. troops in Niger. The open hearing about replacing 9/11-era legislation with a new authorization for the use of military force, or AUMF, allowing the Trump administration to fight terrorist groups comes as questions swirl over how an Islamic State-affiliated group surprised U.S. military advisers in West Africa and killed four soldiers. The White House, like the previous administration, insists it has the authority to pursue ISIS around the globe. But Mattis and Tillerson will likely be peppered with questions about the extent and nature of operations in Niger, the rest of Africa and elsewhere.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has wrestled for months over a new AUMF, but the Oct. 4 Niger incident has ratcheted up urgency for a debate on Capitol Hill. “We know the [ISIS] caliphate is shrinking in Iraq and Syria but does that now mean we’re going to see more of the Niger situation develop in more countries around the world,” said Sen. Ben Cardin, the ranking Democrat on the committee. Sen. Tim Kaine, who is sponsoring a new AUMF bill, said he was “disturbed” by the scope of U.S. operations after a classified briefing on Niger Thursday by the Pentagon and Joint Chiefs of Staff and would bring it up at the hearing today. “I think the extent of the operations, the number of countries, would be surprising to people,” he said. “I don’t think Congress has necessarily been completely kept up to date, and the American public.”
Testimony is scheduled to begin at 5 p.m.
MATTIS: U.S. DOES NOT ACCEPT NUCLEAR NORTH: “North Korea should harbor no illusions,” Mattis Friday in Seoul. It is “overmatched.” Mattis was wrapping up a weeklong Asia trips in which he repeatedly said the U.S. commitment to defend the South is “ironclad,” and diplomacy remains the “preferred course of action.”
“If it remains on its current path of ballistic missiles and atomic bombs, it will be counterproductive. In effect, the DPRK will be reducing its own security,” Mattis said at a joint news conference with South Korea Defense Minister Song Young-moo. “The United States does not accept a nuclear North Korea. Make no mistake, any attack on the United States or our allies will be defeated. Any use of nuclear weapons by the North will be met with a massive military response, effective and overwhelming.”
ABOUT THOSE CARRIERS: Mattis’ warning comes as the U.S. rattles a saber no one else can rattle, a planned joint exercise as three U.S. aircraft carriers cross paths in the waters near the Korean Peninsula. No other country has more than one aircraft carrier comparable to a U.S. supercarrier. Pentagon officials said last week that with the Nimitz swapping out with the Theodore Roosevelt, and the Ronald Reagan also in the neighborhood, it was a rare chance for the three carrier strike groups to exercise together, and insisted it wasn’t aimed directly at North Korea.
“U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Groups routinely deploy to the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean,” said Lt. Cmdr. Nicole Schwegman, a spokeswoman for U.S. Pacific Fleet. “These deployments are part of a previously planned deployment cycle and it is not uncommon for incoming and outgoing carrier strike group transit timing to overlap as one begins a deployment the other concludes.”
HOW BAD COULD IT BE? Pretty bad, according to the Congressional Research Service, which estimates the number of dead in the opening days of a second Korean war could range from 30,000 to 300,000 dead, even if North Korea uses only conventional weapons. The report, obtained by Bloomberg, cites North Korea’s reported ability to fire 10,000 rounds per minute from thousands of artillery pieces and multiple launched rocket systems deployed just north of the DMZ. A potential military conflict “could affect upwards of 25 million people on either side of the border, including at least 100,000 U.S. citizens,” according to a 62-page assessment Bloomberg said was sent to U.S. lawmakers Friday.
SOUTH KOREA WANTS MORE SAY: There are actually three separate military commands in South Korea. United Nations Command, U.S. Forces Command, and the Combined Forces Command, the warfighting command of the Republic of Korea and the United States. The commander of all three is U.S. Army Gen. Vincent Brooks. Much of the discussion in last week’s consultative meeting with the South Koreans was over the desire of the South to transfer “OPCON” or operational control to the South Korean military.
“Secretary Mattis and I have agreed to consider the timing and the conditions on the conditions-based OPCON transition,” said Song at Friday’s joint news conference. “We will continue to work, and develop and refine the plans for the wartime OPCON transition by next SCM [security consultative meeting].
The South Koreans “rightfully seek increased responsibility for their own security,” Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford told reporters in Seoul last week. “If we are committed to an alliance, we are going to want to make sure that we’re involved in the decision-making process for the employment of those forces. There’s got to be a framework that addresses what will surely be U.S. considerations for how is operational control affected, how decisions are made and so forth,” Dunford said, according to the Pentagon’s official news service.
SIGN OF THE TIMES: With Washington fixated on what is being called “Mueller Monday,” it is worth noting that on the Sunday shows on ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN and Fox, there was no mention of the word “Korea” or “Niger.” Just saying.
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: In addition to his regular daily intelligence briefing, President Trump meets this morning with Tillerson, and then later in the the afternoon with Mattis, before the two key national security team members make their appearance on the Hill to testify on a possible new AUMF.
ESPER HEARING THIS WEEK: Three months after his nomination was sent to the Senate, Trump’s pick to be Army secretary will finally get a hearing Thursday before the Senate Armed Services Committee after Sen. John McCain lifted a hold. Mark Esper, a top Raytheon lobbyist, and three other Defense Department nominees are scheduled to testify in what will be a key step toward a confirmation vote on the Senate floor. The hearing will also include testimony by Robert Wilkie, the nominee for undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Joseph Kernan, the nominee for undersecretary for intelligence; and Guy Roberts, the nominee for assistant secretary for nuclear, chemical and biological defense programs.
McCain had been holding up Trump’s nominees to force the Pentagon to be more forthcoming with information about military operations around the world. But after a classified briefing on a deadly ambush on U.S. troops in Niger last week, McCain said he would allow some nominations to proceed. Hours after his comments, Senate Republicans announced that John Gibson, the nominee for deputy chief management officer, was teed up for an expected floor vote this week.
INTENT TO NOMINATE: The White House announced its intent to nominate two more for the Pentagon on Friday. Michael Griffin would be principal deputy undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics. Griffin is a former administrator of NASA. Randall Schriver would be nominated for assistant defense secretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs. He previously served as deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Defense News, which first reported that Schriver was being considered in March, provides context here.
ISIS ROLE IN NIGER? The attackers who ambushed and killed four U.S. soldiers in Niger had “no real ties” to the Islamic State group, according to the SITE Intelligence Group. The company, which tracks terror groups, said the leader of the jihadist extremists in West Africa, Adnan Abu Waleed al-Sahrawi, had pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2015 but never followed through with any coordination, which may explain why ISIS has not claimed responsibility for the attack. After Sahrawi’s 2015 pledge, there were no communiques, media releases, or further acknowledgment of the relationship, and a letter by the leader to followers in May made no mention of ISIS or its war in Iraq and Syria, Rita Katz, director of SITE, wrote on the group’s website. “To call Sahrawi an ISIS operative would be inaccurate, as he has clearly left behind his ties to the group,” she wrote. “But as this tragic killing of U.S. soldiers has appeared to show, he nonetheless exerts a dangerous amount of power in the region.”
Dunford last week said an “ISIS-affiliated group” appeared to be responsible. “I think what you bring up is what we’re dealing with in many places, is ISIS and al Qaeda — ISIS in this case — they try to leverage local insurgencies and connect those local insurgencies globally,” Dunford said. “This is the challenge that we’re dealing with. And so, our initial assessment is these are local tribal fighters that are associated with ISIS.” U.S. Africa Command is still investigating the incident, which included a two-day search for the body of Sgt. La David Johnson, and findings are not expected for at least another month.
GREEN BERET INVESTIGATION: The Navy is investigating two unnamed members of the elite SEAL Team 6 in the death of an Army Green Beret who was found strangled to death in Mali last June, according to a report published Sunday.
Staff Sgt. Logan Melgar, 34, was found dead June 4 in embassy housing he shared with other special operations forces staying in Bamako, Mali. Melgar’s superiors, based in Stuttgart, Germany, sent an investigating officer to Bamako immediately after the incident because they suspected foul play, the New York Times reported. A military medical examiner ruled the death a homicide due to strangulation. The two SEALs were flown out of Mali and put on administrative leave shortly after the incident.
HELO CRASH: The Pentagon on Sunday identified Chief Warrant Officer Jacob Sims as the U.S. service member who was killed in a helicopter crash in Afghanistan late Friday. Sims had been in Afghanistan supporting Operation Freedom’s Sentinel. The Pentagon said it is investigating the crash, which left six other crew members injured. The helicopter crash “was not the result of enemy action,” the Pentagon said in an earlier statement released Saturday. It was forced to make an emergency landing while it was transporting troops to the Karwar district ahead of a night raid.
SPACE, THE FINAL FRONT LINE: “Mr. President, our satellites are down. Our GPS weapons are offline. Our ships are using sextants to navigate. And we’re not exactly sure who attacked us. What’s our next move?” That Hollywood scenario, from an as-yet-unwritten Tom Clancy-like screenplay, has the kind of verisimilitude that keeps some military planners up at night. In this week’s Washington Examiner magazine we examine the threat to U.S. satellites that provide vital communication, surveillance, and navigation to the U.S. military.
The $100 BILLION GAP: A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies outlines the tension between readiness and modernization as Congress wrestles with the new budget. “The military services would like to do everything,” writes Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS, “but the fiscal future is highly uncertain.” The report looks at a range of possible budget outcomes, from the failure to raise caps imposed by the Budget Control Act to the more optimistic recommendations by McCain and House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry. “In FY 2022 the difference between the top and the bottom is about $100 billion,” Cancian wrote. The report forecasts what different budget levels would mean for military force structures. One example: the range for the regular Army is 420,000 to 540,000 soldiers.
NORTH KOREAN DEFECTOR: A top North Korean defector will testify on Capitol Hill this week as Congress mulls new ways to increase pressure on the rogue regime, a senior Republican announced. Thae Yong-ho served as the second-highest ranking North Korean diplomat in the United Kingdom until last year, when he defected to South Korea. House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce touted his “valuable insights” into the vulnerabilities of dictator Kim Jong Un as the motivation for Wednesday’s hearing.
“As we intensify our efforts to counter North Korea’s nuclear threats, we must consider the full array of policy options at our disposal,” the California Republican said. “This hearing will be an opportunity to learn how best to apply maximum diplomatic and financial pressure on the Kim regime.”
WHISTLEBLOWER CALLS FOR VA CZAR: Scott Davis, a Department of Veterans Affairs whistleblower who testified before Congress in 2014 about backlogs over benefits, is calling for the establishment of a czar for VA reform. Davis made the call in an open letter to Trump in the Washington Examiner this morning.
“Mr. President, it is with great disappointment that I inform your office that despite your efforts to reform VA, the agency has done little to improve its operations to enhance Veteran access to healthcare.
“It is for these reasons that I ask you to consider appointing a White House czar for Veterans Affairs to assist your office with enforcing the administration’s VA reform agenda to improve access to healthcare for Veterans. Having an executive adviser with military experience will assist your administration with the following revolving Veteran healthcare concerns that have been submitted to Secretary Shulkin and VHA leadership for resolution:”
You can read the rest here.
ROUHANI DIGS IN: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said his country would not stop its ballistic missile program, which Trump and other Iran hawks believe is in violation of the nuclear deal. Rouhani said in a speech to Parliament on Sunday that the missile program does not violate any international laws or the nuclear agreement struck between the U.S. and several other countries that is meant to keep Iran from building a nuclear bomb.
“Understand that we have been building missiles, and will continue to do so and this does not contradict any of international laws and it is not in conflict with Resolution 2231,” he said. “We will continue to defend our national interests and security with all our might, and the enemies should know that violation of any agreement will be detrimental to them, and the Islamic Republic of Iran will give them a decisive answer.”
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: In Niger, where U.S. Troops died, a lawless and shifting landscape
Fox News: Death of U.S. soldiers in Niger restarts debate about military involvement post Vietnam
AP: Their caliphate in ruins, IS militants melt into the desert
Washington Post: The Army let a convicted murderer into Bowe Bergdahl’s trial. He said ‘I got a firing squad standing by.’
AP: Wounded soldier’s wife expected to testify against Bergdahl
Wall Street Journal: Iraqi Kurdish president resigns after independence bid stumbles
Reuters: Iran to lift border curbs with Iraq’s Kurdish region in coming days
Defense News: U.S. defense industry to Congress: Don’t let tax cuts add to the deficit
Foreign Policy: Used to Afghanistan, special operators suffer from lack of support in Africa
USA Today: Al-Shabab claims responsibility for Mogadishu hotel blast that killed 23, including 3 kids
New York Times: Russia Uses Its Oil Giant, Rosneft, as a Foreign Policy Tool
Reuters: U.S. envoy Haley’s blunt diplomacy targets South Sudan, Congo
AP: Duterte visits Japan, says talks needed with Kim Jong Un
Military.com: In Trump era, rising seas still a concern for Defense Department
Reuters: Afghan Taliban say kidnapped U.S. professor is seriously ill
Wall Street Journal: Armies Race to Deploy Drone, Self-Driving Tech on the Battlefield
Calendar
MONDAY | OCT. 30
5701 Marinelli Rd. IPPM: Future dimensions of integration. ndia.org
9 a.m. 901 N. Stuart St. Microelectronics manufacturing models workshop. ndia.org
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A conversation on women and girls in Afghanistan with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani. csis.org
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Iraqi public opinion on the rise, fall and future of ISIS. csis.org
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book discussion of “Inside Terrorism” with author Bruce Hoffman. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Russia’s demography: The basis for a prosperous future? atlanticcouncil.org
5 p.m. Dirksen 419. The administration perspective on the Authorizations for the Use of Military Force with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. foreign.senate.gov
5:30 p.m. 1667 K St. NW. Book talk on “Safeguarding Democratic Capitalism: U.S. Foreign Policy and National Security, 1920-2015.” csbaonline.org
TUESDAY | OCT. 31
10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A preview of U.S. and Philippine priorities for the 2017 ASEAN and East Asia summits. stimson.org
10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The unfinished business of the 1989 East European revolutions. wilsoncenter.org
WEDNESDAY | NOV. 1
8 a.m. 1550 W. Nursery Rd. Cyber DFARS workshop. ndia.org
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The joint force of the Group of Five for the Sahel and an African-led response to insecurity. csis.org
9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Open hearing on social media influence in the 2016 U.S. elections. intelligence.senate.gov
9:30 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Summit with Eric Schmidt, executive chairman of Alphabet, Inc. and the chair of the Defense Innovation Advisory Board. cnas.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. An insider’s look at the North Korean regime with Thae Yong-ho, former deputy chief of mission at the North Korean embassy in the United Kingdom. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. Rayburn 2154. Overview of 16 years of involvement in Afghanistan. oversight.house.gov
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Press briefing on President Trump’s trip to Asia. csis.org
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. From enemies to partners: Vietnam, the U.S. and Agent Orange. csis.org
2 p.m. House Visitor Center 210. Russia Investigative task force open hearing with social media companies including Kent Walker, general counsel for Google; Colin Stretch, general counsel for Facebook; and Sean Edgett, general counsel for Twitter. intelligence.house.gov
5:30 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Screening event for “The Long Road Home” with Rep. Jim Banks, Rep. Ruben Gallego and retired Gen. Peter Chiarelli, the former Army vice chief of staff. cnas.org
THURSDAY | NOV. 2
9 a.m. House Visitor Center 304. Testimony of Carter Page. intelligence.house.gov
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on nominations for Mark Esper, to be Army secretary; Robert Wilkie, to be undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Joseph Kernan, to be under secretary of defense for intelligence; and Guy Roberts, to be assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological defense programs. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Trump’s vision for Asia: What to expect from the U.S. presidential visit to the Asia-Pacific region with Kurt Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. wilsoncenter.org
1 p.m. 1135 16th St. NW. Beyond BRAC: Defining the path forward for our defense infrastructure with Lucian Niemeyer, assistant secretary of defense for installations, environment and energy. defensecommunities.org
FRIDAY | NOV. 3
2:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. China’s 19th party congress and its implications for China and the United States. wilsoncenter.org
MONDAY | NOV. 6
9 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How do you solve a problem like North Korea? cato.org
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Allies under the shadow: Thailand, the Philippines, and the state of U.S. alliances in Southeast Asia. csis.org
