Biden ready to quit Afghanistan, just not yet

It’s been clear to any knowledgeable observer that the logistics of withdrawing 2,500-plus U.S. troops, 5,000 NATO and partner troops, not to mention some 13,000 American contractors in the remaining five weeks, would be a logistical nightmare.

“We’ve been meeting with our allies, those other nations that have NATO allies who have troops in Afghanistan as well, and if we leave, we’re going to do so in a safe and orderly way,” he said.

US ASSISTANCE REMAINS CRITICAL: Last month, when word leaked out of NATO that the U.S. was considering delaying withdrawal until there was more progress in the peace talks, the Taliban issued a statement indicating it would resume attacks against U.S. forces.

“If someone ignores the Doha agreement and seeks excuses to continue the war and extend the occupation, then the mujahid nation of Afghanistan can courageously defend the values, the soil, the country and their rights same as they have before, as proven in history,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement.

On Capitol Hill yesterday, Army Gen. Richard Clarke, head of U.S. Special Operations Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Afghan military still needs U.S. help to counter the Taliban offensive that followed last year’s withdrawal agreement signed by the Trump administration.

“It’s clear that the Taliban have not upheld what they said they would do and reduce the violence,” Clarke testified. “While progress has been made … the capabilities that the U.S. provides for the Afghans to be able to combat the Taliban and other threats that reside in Afghanistan are critical to their success.”

MIXED REVIEWS: Biden’s apparent decision to stay for now, but leave soon, seemed to satisfy neither side of the debate.

“Keeping troops in Afghanistan beyond the May 1st deadline spelled out in the Doha agreement is a mistake that would needlessly keep American troops in harm’s way in support of a failed nation-building exercise. A continued presence beyond the deadline would make diplomacy more difficult and sink us deeper into the conflict,” said Nate Anderson, executive director of Concerned Veterans for America. “Keeping faith with the Doha agreement is the best opportunity to end our entanglement in a war that does not serve our interests.”

In statements issued before Biden’s news conference, Republicans called on the president to stay the course in the face of Taliban noncompliance with the Feb. 29 Doha agreement.

“It is critical that the U.S. and our NATO allies remain committed to staying until the mission is complete and ensure any future withdrawal is based on conditions on the ground, not an arbitrary timeline,” said Rep. Michael McCaul, lead Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “This is the only way to preserve the gains of the last 20 years in Afghanistan and to honor the sacrifices made by the U.S. and our NATO allies to achieve those gains.”

“If there is a non-conditions-based withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, the country would deteriorate into civil war. The Taliban would strongly reemerge in the south and the former Northern Alliance would reconstitute, leading to a deadly civil war that would be a blessing for radical Islamic groups like al Qaeda and ISIS,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham in a statement Wednesday.

“This can all be avoided by having NATO, partner nations and the United States show determination to keep a small residual counterterrorism force in Afghanistan and to continue working with Pakistan, with the Afghan government and the Taliban, to end the war honorably.”

BIDEN SIGNALS REMOVAL OF US TROOPS FROM AFGHANISTAN BY NEXT YEAR BUT WILL MISS TRUMP’S MAY 1 GOAL

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HAPPENING TODAY: Yesterday, it was the Senate Armed Services Committee examining the strains that nonstop deployments have placed on U.S. special operation forces. Today at 11 a.m., the House Armed Services Committee will tackle the “culture and climate” of SOF commandos.

Testifying will be Linda Robinson, director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy and senior international/defense researcher at RAND Corporation; retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Nagata, senior vice president and strategic adviser at CACI International Inc.; retired Marine Corps Lt. Col. Kate Germano; and Mark Mitchell, former acting assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low intensity conflict.

SOMALIA WITHDRAWAL ‘UNDER REVIEW’: One of President Donald Trump’s actions in his final weeks in office was to order the withdrawal of some 800 U.S. special operations troops from Somalia where they were assisting local Somali force battling the al Qaeda linked militant group al Shabab.

The mission didn’t end. The U.S. troops were simply forced to operate from a base in neighboring Kenya, hundreds of miles away.

Under questioning from ranking Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe, Christopher Maier, the Pentagon’s acting assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, admitted that may not have made much sense.

“I think we have a review underway right now that’s weighing all this,” Maier said. “I think from my perspective, there is probably significant downsides to the pullout from the perspective of cost and effectiveness, but that’s my initial look.”

ALSO ‘UNDER REVIEW,’ BIDEN’S DRONE STRIKE BAN: Sen. Tom Cotton questioned Maier and SOCOM commander Clarke on the effect of an executive order issued by Biden on his first days in office that withdrew authority for U.S. military commanders to order drone strikes to kill suspected terrorists.

Both men said they’d prefer to discuss the ban behind closed doors. “I think it’s meant to be an initial review of this administration in the use of a series of different actions that again we should probably talk about in closed session,” said Maier. “Those are all part of an overall series of looking at what has been done and whether this administration would continue to proceed with those.”

In remarks addressed to Clarke, Cotton said, “I have the highest confidence in you and in Gen. [Frank] McKenzie and Central Command and Gen. [Stephen] Townsend, Africa Command, to know whether or not we should smoke a bad guy overseas. And that doesn’t need to be decided by civilians at the White House.”

TRUMP AND BIDEN ORDERS COMPLICATE AFRICA COMMAND’S FIGHT AGAINST AL SHABAB

CYBERSECURITY ‘BLIND SPOT’: At the same Senate hearing, Gen. Paul Nakasone warned that enemies are increasingly exploiting gaps in U.S. cybersecurity to launch attacks from within the United States.

“We should understand what our adversaries are doing. They are no longer just launching their attacks from different parts in the world,” Nakasone testified. “They understand that they can come into the United States, use our infrastructure, and there was a blind spot for us not being able to see them. Those are critical pieces.”

In the wake of the SolarWinds and Microsoft Exchange cyberattacks, Nakasone says he needs more authority to focus his defenses inward.

“We have an inability to see everything,” he testified. “We at U.S. Cyber Command or the National Security Agency may see what is occurring outside of the United States, but when it comes into the United States, our adversaries are moving very quickly … They are utilizing our own infrastructure, our own internet service providers, to create these intrusions.”

“And there are right now legal barriers and disincentives for the private sector to share information with the government,” he said. “We have a difficulty as a government understanding the totality of the actual intrusion.”

NORTH KOREA ON NOTICE: Biden’s response to North Korea’s launch of ballistic missiles in violation of U.N. resolutions has drawn what appears to be a tacit endorsement from the top Republicans on the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committee.

“The Kim regime’s return to belligerence will only further alienate them from the world, and destroy the last shreds of a historic chance to secure a brighter future for the people of North Korea,” said Reps. Mike Rogers and Michael McCaul in a joint statement. “The United States will not be intimidated by North Korea’s nuclear aggression. We will remain appropriately postured to respond in lockstep with our allies the Republic of Korea and Japan and committed to their extended deterrence, and we will continue to work for the denuclearization of North Korea.”

Asked about the missile tests at his news conference yesterday, Biden said, “We’re consulting with our allies and partners, and there will be responses if they choose to escalate. We will respond accordingly. But I’m also prepared for some form of diplomacy, but it has to be conditioned upon the end result of denuclearization.”

MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE: While the U.S. and Russia are at odds on most things, it appears both nations are exerting pressure to limit Iran’s military and diplomatic leverage in Syria, according to an analysis by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

The institute notes the airstrikes targeting Iranian proxies that the U.S. carried out in response to rocket attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq in mid-February.

At the same time, Russia began several new diplomatic initiatives on behalf of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, which the ISW says, “could diminish Iran’s potential economic and political leverage in Syria.”

“Russia facilitated a deal to renew oil trade between the Assad regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces, possibly reducing the Assad regime’s reliance on Iranian oil,” the group says. “Russia additionally brokered a prisoner exchange between Israel and Syria in which Israel also agreed to finance the purchase of Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine for the Syrian government.”

HERITAGE NUKE STUDY: The Heritage Foundation is out with a new white paper warning of “Troubling Trends in Russia’s Nuclear Weapons Program.”

“With at least six strategic projects unveiled in recent years, including a new intercontinental ballistic missile, three hypersonic vehicles, a nuclear-powered underwater drone, and a nuclear-powered cruise missile, Russia poses a number of new challenges for the United States, NATO, and international security,” writes Peter Brookes, a senior research fellow at Heritage. “Not only are these weapons potential threats, they also are arguably a signal of Russia’s continuing commitment to the primacy of its nuclear forces as an element of its defense policy.”

The key takeaways:

• Among all contenders, including China and North Korea, Russia is arguably the country most actively developing new nuclear weapons and delivery systems today.
• Today, nuclear weapons play an important role in the evolving great-power competition among the U.S., Russia, and China and in the strategic balance of global power.
• The U.S. should continue to make the development of missile defense capabilities and nuclear force modernization a U.S., NATO, and allied defense priority.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden signals removal of US troops from Afghanistan by next year but will miss Trump’s May 1 goal

Washington Examiner: President will consult allies before responding to North Korean missile tests

Washington Examiner: China’s Xi Jinping does not have a democratic ‘bone in his body,’ Biden says

Washington Examiner: Biden’s moves against China remind Europe it doesn’t have Trump to kick around anymore

Washington Examiner: DOD starts 90-day sexual assault review with no active-duty panel members

Washington Examiner: Biden says action on guns will be a matter of ‘timing’

Washington Examiner: Democrats want answers from White House, DOJ, FBI, and more on Capitol riot

Washington Examiner: ‘Truly disturbing’: DOD approves HHS request to house migrant children at military bases in Texas

Wall Street Journal: Biden Says U.S. Wants Competition, Not Confrontation, With China

Reuters: Engage Russia But Remain “Clear-Eyed” While Doing So, Blinken Tells NATO

Breaking Defense: New Navy Command To Oversee Unmanned Ships As They Work With Fleet

Air Force Magazine: The U.S. Is Playing Catch-Up on Hypersonics. Here’s How.

Reuters: Taiwan Says Has Begun Mass Production Of Long-Range Missile

USNI News: SOCOM Shifting To Great Power Competition Strategy, But Needs More ISR Capabilities, Commander Says

Air Force Magazine: Army, Calling Itself an ‘All-Domain’ Force, Prioritizes Long-Range Strike

Tolo News: Massoud: Hasty US Pullout Will Push Afghanistan to Civil War

AP: Sticky bombs latest weapon in Afghanistan’s arsenal of war

AP: Fuel tank attacked, catches fire in southern Saudi Arabia

Talk Media News: In updated response, the Pentagon expresses concern over Saudi air attack on Yemen neutral zone

Washington Post: Saudi official rejects reports that he threatened U.N. investigator in Khashoggi murder

19fortyfive.com: Did North Korea Fire Copies Of Dangerous Russian Missiles?

Foreign Affairs: It Is Time for a Realistic Bargain With North Korea

AP: Australian envoy reportedly describes China as ‘vindictive’

Guam Daily Post: Military: Development Of Marine Corps Base On Guam On Track

USNI News: Investigation: 7-Month-Long ‘Chain of Failure’ Led to 9 Killed in AAV Sinking

Marine Corps Times: ‘The Best Job I Ever Had’: Marines Remember Their Tanks As The Corps Ditches Its Armor

Politico: Military And Spy Agencies Accused Of Stiff-Arming Investigators On UFO Sightings

Calendar

FRIDAY | MARCH 26

11 a.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations hearing: “SOF Culture and Climate: The Future of the Force,” with Linda Robinson, director, Center for Middle East Public Policy, RAND Corporation; retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Nagata, senior vice president and strategic adviser, CACI International Inc.; retired Marine Lt. Col. Kate Germano; Mark Mitchell, former acting assistant secretary of defense special operations and low intensity conflict. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “The Digital Transformation of Weapons — Leveraging Digital Engineering to Propel AFRL (Air Force Research Laboratory) to the Future Fight,” with Air Force Col. Garry Haase, commander and director of the AFRL Munitions Directorate. https://afceanova.swoogo.com/March2021Luncheon

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Rethinking the Role of Remotely Crewed Systems in the Future Force,” with Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Jacquelyn Schneider, fellow at the Hoover Institution; Scott Wierzbanowski, program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Tactical Technology Office; and Rachel Cohen, senior reporter at the Air Force Times. https://www.csis.org/events

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Confronting a New Era of Global Threats,” with Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas; and Tim Morrison, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events/1940-virtual-event

3 p.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Installation Resiliency: Lessons Learned from Winter Storm Uri and Beyond,” with Lt. Gen. Douglas Gabram, commanding general, Army Installation Management Command; Vice Adm. Yancy Lindsey, commander, Navy Installations Command; Maj. Gen. Edward Banta, commander, Marine Corps Installations Command; and Brig. Gen. John Allen, commander, Air Force Materiel Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

WEDNESDAY I MARCH 31

12:30 p.m. — Hampton Roads World Affairs Council Virtual Symposium virtual panel discussion: “Stronger Together: Perspectives on Strengthening the Alliance,” with the current and three former commanders of Allied Command Transformation, including French Air Force Gen. Andre Lanata; Retired French Air Force Gen. Denis Mercier, retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, and retired Adm. Ed Giambastiani, ACT’s first commander. https://zoom.us/webinar/register