Mattis lands in Germany as he finalizes his Afghanistan strategy

“That will be a dialogue,” Mattis said, speaking as his plane passed through the skies over Canada. “I don’t think it’s locked in yet what we need. For example, if you need training NCOs, you don’t send an infantry platoon with a lot of privates.” He talks more about the issue of numbers in a short video clip here.

Mattis said his plan is to return to Washington at week’s end, and — armed with fresh advice from NATO allies, Dunford’s report from Afghanistan, and the latest U.S. intelligence assessments about the strength of the Taliban — consult with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and the rest of the president’s national security team. “Then we will present to the president a strategy that has been informed by our allies, including Afghanistan, and given a framework that is regional in nature and focuses on how do we end this war, but on conditions that remove the dangers to the Afghan people, and to us, and to all the nations that have been attacked by terrorist groups out of that region,” Mattis said.

SYRIA: In Syria, Mattis said the campaign to liberate Raqqa is the main focus, but with the defeat of the Islamic State in their self-proclaimed capital now seemingly just a matter of time, Mattis said he’s also looking “toward the next fight, and things are going on with that as well.” After the fall of Raqqa, Mattis sees an ever-shrinking, and therefore increasingly crowded and complex battlefield in the Euphrates River valley and the southeast in which regime forces from the government of Bashar Assad play a role in the mopping up operations.

Mattis said with competing factions on the ground, it will be even more important to use the hotline with the Russians to avoid conflict on the ground, and he notes that despite all the threats from Moscow, that communications link has never been broken. “The deconfliction line, through all of these contentious months that we’ve been through, has never gone down,” Mattis said.

TURKEY: Mattis also confirmed that the U.S. has assured Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that weapons and military hardware provided to the Syrian Democratic Forces, which includes members of the Kurdish YPG militia that Turkey considers terrorists, will be taken back from the Kurdish fighters after they’re done fighting. But he notes that won’t exactly leave the Kurds defenseless. “They had plenty of weapons. They were beating ISIS in every battle. They never lost an inch of terrain to them,” Mattis said. “What we gave them were weapons for urban fighting basically. We’ll be recovering them during the battle, repairing them, and when they don’t need certain things anymore we’ll replace them with something they do need.”

A reporter asked if the U.S. will collect the weapons as soon as Raqqa is liberated. “Depends on what the next mission is, it’s not like the fight is over when Raqqa is over,” Mattis said.

THORNBERRY BENDS ON NDAA: The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee finally unveiled his long-awaited national defense authorization plan on Monday, and it was not quite the $640 billion he had originally pressed for to rebuild the military. But the nearly $632 billion in base national defense spending and $65 billion in overseas war spending blows past the defense budget proposed by Trump by nearly $29 billion. The president asked Congress for $603 billion and the same size war fund. According to staff, Rep. Mac Thornberry had reduced his top line funding figures somewhat in expectation of an emerging multi-year budget deal by House leaders that could lift a $549 billion baseline defense spending cap this year and allow more spending in 2019. “If you are confident there will be some growth in FY19, there’s not an opportunity cost to waiting,” a committee aide said.

Meanwhile, Thornberry’s proposal would buy more weapons and troops in 2018 than Trump’s plan. It authorizes the purchase of five additional Navy ships (the service has already said it plans to formally request an additional littoral combat ship), 17 more F-35s, and eight more F/A-18 Super Hornets. The Army would grow by 17,000 soldiers, with the active-duty force getting 10,000, the National Guard getting 4,000, and the Army Reserve receiving 3,000 more troops. Trump’s budget calls for the Army to remain at 476,000 active-duty soldiers with no growth in the coming year. The chairman’s additions to the defense bill largely track with unfunded priorities the services turned over to lawmakers this month.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

SENATE’S UP ON NDAA: Now that House has unveiled its defense policy bill, eyes will turn to Sen. John McCain and the Senate Armed Services Committee. McCain, a preeminent defense hawk, has been advocating for much higher military spending along with Thornberry. After a couple of shifts in its schedule, the panel is now poised to finish up subcommittee work earlier this morning and begin its full committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act behind closed doors at 8:15 a.m. (see our calendar below for full details). A final bill is expected Thursday or Friday. The questions are whether McCain sticks to his own call for a $640 billion base defense budget, how close he gets to Thornberry’s proposal, and how different his plan is compared to Trump’s.

REDLINE WARNING: ASSAD WILL PAY “A HEAVY PRICE” Trump is warning Assad not to use chemical weapons on his own people again, hinting the U.S. is ready to attack his military with another punishing strike. The White House issued a statement last night, saying that U.S. intelligence had detected what could be another chemical strike in the making, and warning that Assad and his military “will pay a heavy price” if he conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons.

“The United States has identified potential preparations for another chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime that would likely result in the mass murder of civilians, including innocent children,” the statement said. “The activities are similar to preparations the regime made before its April 4, 2017 chemical weapons attack.”

That attack in Khan Sheikhoun killed and injured hundreds of innocent Syrian people, including women and children. In response, three days later the U.S. launched 59 cruise missiles inflicting heavy damage at the Syrian Air Force Shayrat airfield in Homs.

“As we have previously stated the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. If, however, Mr. Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price.”

FROM AP THIS MORNING: “BREAKING: Syrian activists say airstrike on Islamic State-run jail kills at least 42 prisoners in eastern Syria.”

ARMS BLOCK: A top Senate Republican is blocking arms sales to Gulf Cooperation Council countries in order to pressure the Arab nations to resolve a brewing diplomatic crisis with Qatar, Joel Gehrke writes. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker’s decision, announced Monday, puts teeth into a series of statements from Tillerson, who has repeatedly called for the Saudi-led bloc of Arab countries to end the diplomatic isolation of neighboring Qatar. The Saudis accuse Qatar of financing terrorism and aligning with Iran, but the dispute is an uncomfortable one for the United States, which has major military operations in Qatar.

“Before we provide any further clearances during the informal review period on sales of lethal military equipment to the GCC states, we need a better understanding of the path to resolve the current dispute and reunify the GCC,” Corker, a Tennessee Republican, wrote in a letter to Tillerson. Corker’s block could imperil at least a portion of the $110 billion deal with Saudi Arabia, since about 20 percent of the deal was already finalized under the Obama administration.

MISSILE WARS: U.S. military researchers “are on the cusp of some pretty major breakthroughs” in missile defense that are necessary to win potential wars with China and Russia, according to a leading Republican lawmaker. “It’s better to win an arms race than lose a war,” Sen. Tom Cotton told the Center for the National Interest on Monday.

Cotton, an Army infantry veteran who sits on the Armed Services Committee, anchored that statement in Russia’s ongoing violation of an arms control treaty governing the development of intermediate-range nuclear weapons. But that violation is emblematic of a broader problem. Technological advances have rendered the Cold War principle of mutually-assured destruction insufficient to avert nuclear war. Russia and China, he said, have already developed plans for “limited” use of nuclear weapons to win conventional wars. And that requires an overhaul of U.S. defenses, according to the lawmaker. “We need to be able to stop an attack from near-peer adversaries as well,” Cotton said.

PRO-ISIS HACK: Several government websites, many in Ohio, were hacked Sunday and displayed messages claiming support for the ISIS. The Associated Press reported the websites for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican, Ohio first lady Karen Kasich, the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction, the Casino Control and the state’s Medicaid program were hacked around 11 a.m. One message posted on Kasich’s website stated, “You will be held accountable Trump, you and all your people for every drop of blood flowing in Muslim countries.”

GENERALLY SPEAKING: Back on the plane with Mattis, I asked him about the undercurrent in Washington that despite his stellar credentials, and wide bipartisan support among members of Congress, there are still those who doubt that a retired general should be in charge of the wars. I mentioned an Anne Applebaum opinion piece in the Washington Post, which lauded Mattis as a “remarkable public servant,” yet also argued that “Mattis in charge” is a formula for disaster. “A U.S. foreign policy run by military technocrats will have the same deep flaws as the governments run by economic technocrats,” she argued.

Mattis seemed amused by the description. “It’s the first time I’ve ever been called a technocrat, it sounds rather impressive actually,” he joked, but then on a serious tack he said a strategy, like the one he’s drawing up for Afghanistan, can’t be “military only.” Mattis does not see the U.S. military as a hammer, and therefore every problem is not a nail. The military is “a relatively narrow part of the strategy.”

He notes he lives across the street from Tillerson’s office, and has breakfast with him once a week. They talk by phone at least twice a day, sometimes three or four times. Mattis said he’s learned a lot from working with former secretaries of state, high-ranking members of Congress, and Joint Chiefs chairmen, of both parties over his many years in uniform. “I do the best I can,” he said.

REPORTERS ON THE PLANE: Also traveling with Mattis are Lolita Baldor, The Associated Press; Phil Stewart, Reuters, Thomas Watkins, Agence France-Presse; and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, The Washington Post. The secretary is flying on an Air Force C-32 (a Boeing 757), which is considerably smaller than the E-4B, a modified Boeing 747, he typically flies. The E-4B, sometimes referred to as the “Doomsday Plane” because of its mission as a flying command post, was damaged by a tornado while on the ground at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska, and needs some minor repairs.

THE RUNDOWN

Military.com: General: U.S. pilots made the call to shoot down Syrian aircraft

New York Times: South Korea voices support for U.S. antimissile system

Defense News: Raytheon pushes GBU-49 as quick fix to give F-35 ability to hit moving targets

UPI: Raytheon successfully fires high-energy laser from helicopter

Air Force Times: Air-to-air combat is back: How will the Air Force respond as the war over Syria heats up?

Reuters: Exclusive: U.S. warship stayed on deadly collision course despite warning – container ship captain

CNN: House intel chair says he voluntarily stepped aside from Russia probe

Foreign Policy: NSA director gave senator private tour during debate over foreign intelligence collection

Defense News: House Armed Services Committee wants U.S. Navy to replace its Reserve Hornets

USNI News: Navy awards 1 Littoral Combat Ship to Austal; Still negotiating with Lockheed Martin

CNN: Raqqa: Secret video shows ISIS losing chokehold on its ‘capital’

Washington Post: Poll shows U.S. tumbling in world’s regard under Trump

Stars and Stripes: F-35B stealth fighters make first appearance on Okinawa

Defense One: America’s military: Overcommitted and underfunded

Washington Post: The Pentagon promised citizenship to immigrants who served. Now it might help deport them.

War on the Rocks: A military assessment of the Islamic State’s evolving theory of victory

Calendar

TUESDAY | JUNE 27

6 :30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Closed hearing on the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats to mark up the National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov

7 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Closed hearing on Subcommittee on Personnel to mark up the National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov

7:30 a.m. Russell 232-A. Closed hearing by Subcommittee on Readiness to mark up the National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov

8 a.m. Russell 232-A. Closed hearing by Subcommittee on Cybersecurity to mark up the National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov

8:15 a.m. Russell 222. Closed full committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Integrating Strike and Defense with retired Lt. Gen. Henry “Trey” Obering, former director of the Missile Defense Agency, and former Rep. Randy Forbes. csis.org

8:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Big data and the Twenty-first Century arms race. atlanticcouncil.org

1 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The future of Mosul and Iraq after the ISIS flag falls with Rep. Adam Kinzinger. heritage.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Allies under attack and the terrorist threat to Europe. foreignaffairs.house.gov

3 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The Syrian conflict and regional security. press.org

3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book launch for Water, Security and U.S. Foreign Policy. wilsoncenter.org

WEDNESDAY | JUNE 28

7 a.m. Russell 222. Closed full committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov

8 a.m. 1201 M St. SE. Systems engineering division meeting. ndia.org

8:30 a.m. 1301 K St. NW. Sen. Bob Corker interviewed by columnist David Ignatius on efforts to expand sanctions against Russia and Iran. washingtonpost.com

9:30 a.m. 1127 Connecticut Ave. NW. 2017 Annual conference: Navigating the divide. cnas.org

10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Nominations of Claire M. Grady to be undersecretary for management at the Department of Homeland Security and Henry Kerner to be special counsel in the Office of Special Counsel. hsgac.senate.gov

10 a.m. Hart 216. Open hearing on Russian intervention in European elections. intelligence.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Full committee markup of the Fiscal Year 2018 National Defense Authorization Act. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed hearing on recent developments on North Korea with Ambassador Joseph Yun, deputy assistant secretary for Korea and Japan at the State Department. foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Strategic cyber deterrence: The active cyber defense option with author Scott Jasper. heritage.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Advancing U.S. interests at the United Nations with Ambassador Nikki Haley. foreignaffairs.house.gov

10 a.m. Senate Visitor Center 212-10. Study release, Consolidating the Revolution: Optimizing the Potential of Remotely Piloted Aircraft, with author retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula. mitchellaerospacepower.org

11:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Rebalancing U.S. force posture in Europe and beyond. atlanticcouncil.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Perspectives on the 2018 U.S. national security strategy with Christine Wormuth and Ambassador Tony Wayne. csis.org

2 p.m. Hart 216. Nomination of David Glawe to be undersecretary for intelligence and analysis at the Department of Homeland Security. intelligence.senate.gov

THURSDAY | JUNE 29

7:30 a.m. Russell 222. Closed full committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov

9 a.m. 1030 15th Street NW. Conference on the threat of Russian influence in Europe, the next frontier in digital disinformation, and how to strike back. atlanticcouncil.org

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The power of the president to shape U.S. relations in the Middle East and North Africa. brookings.edu

10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. India-Japan strategic cooperation and implications for Washington and Beijing. wilsoncenter.org

4:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Debate on U.S. nuclear weapon modernization. csis.org

6:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Chief White House correspondent for The New York Times, Peter Baker, discusses his new book Obama: The Call of History. press.org

FRIDAY | JUNE 30

9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. South Sudan: When war and famine collide. csis.org