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GETTING OUT OF SYRIA: It was nearly a month ago that the U.S. military announced — in accordance with President Trump’s surprise order — it had “begun the process of our deliberate withdrawal from Syria.” But this week the top U.S. commander for the region confirmed none of the 2,000 American troops have actually left. Gen. Joseph Votel, head of the U.S. Central Command told the Senate Armed Service Committee Tuesday he didn’t plan to pull out the troops until the last ISIS-controlled territory was liberated by U.S.-backed Syrian fighters, and arrangements are in place to protect U.S. interests. “We are going to consider things like protection of our partners, the Kurds, we are going to consider the concerns that Turkey has along their border, and we are going to consider how we keep pressure on ISIS,” Votel said. He added, “I am not under pressure to be out by a specific date and I have not had any specific conditions put upon me.” But the Wall Street Journal, citing current and former U.S. officials, reports this morning that Pentagon is preparing plans to pull all U.S. forces out of Syria by the end of April. “Unless the Trump administration alters course, the military plans to pull a significant portion of its forces out by mid-March, with a full withdrawal coming by the end of April, they said. Still, the military planning comes as the State Department maintains that there is no timetable for a withdrawal,” the Journal says. A State Department official said the U.S. has “no set timetable for withdrawal of military forces” from Syria and Navy Cmdr. Sean Robertson, a Pentagon spokesman, told the Journal, “We are not discussing the timeline of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria.” GETTING OUT OF AFGHANISTAN: In his first public event since becoming the special representative, Zalmay Khalilzad will discuss recent progress and challenges to advance a peace process in Afghanistan at 2 this afternoon at the U.S. Institute of Peace, across the street from the State Department. The event will be live-streamed here. Khalilzad has been engaged in talks with Taliban representatives in Qatar and has tweeted his optimism about prospects for peace, while other U.S. officials have cautioned it’s early in the process and Khalilzad took to Twitter to deny any U.S. withdrawal in imminent. “in recent days, I’ve heard some individual Taliban officials claim we have a troop withdrawal timetable for Afghanistan. Today, they correctly retracted that claim. To be clear: no troop withdrawal timetable exists,” Khalilzad tweeted Wednesday. KARZAI OPTIMISTIC: After two days of talks in Moscow that included the Taliban, but not the Afghan government, former Afghan President Hamid Karzai declared the Russian diplomatic effort a “big achievement.” Karzai, who was the leader of the Afghan delegation, gave an interview with CNN this morning in which he criticized the U.S. military involvement in his country. Asked by CNN correspondent Oren Liebermann if the U.S. presence in Afghanistan contributes to peace and security, Karzai said. “It does not, unfortunately, and for that reason was my opposition to the U.S. military operations in Afghanistan.” “How can you change that?” Liebermann asked. “By doing exactly what the U.S. Is doing now,” Karzai replied. “By working for peace in Afghanistan. By working with dedication for peace in Afghanistan, which is what they are doing now.” MISTRUSTING THE TALIBAN: At the Moscow summit the Taliban said, “We do not allow anyone to use the soil of Afghanistan against other countries including neighboring countries.” That is “a demonstrably false claim,” said Thomas Joscelyn and Bill Roggio at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy’s Long War Journal. The pair put together a dynamic map that shows how the Taliban’s continuous work alongside jihadist organizations with regional and global aspirations, including al Qaeda. BORDER DEAL LOOKING UP: House and Senate negotiators are closing in on a possible border security agreement that would fund new technology, additional border patrol agents, and likely some kind of fencing in certain areas along the southern border, reports my colleague Susan Ferrechio. There’s no mention of a wall in the deal, per orders of Democratic leaders who vehemently oppose it, President Trump seems to show more flexibility to whatever the negotiators hammer out, according to Appropriations Committee Chairman Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala. “I gave a report on meeting with the president and I thought things were on the positive trajectory as far as maybe concluding the funding,” Shelby divulged to lawmakers in a private lunch yesterday, adding. “But we are not there yet.” “We’re in a good place. Negotiators are doing a good job,” CNN quoted a senior White House official as saying. Shelby says next 72 hours will be critical if Democrats and Republicans are to reach a deal in time to allow passage of seven spending bills and ensure full government funding by a Feb. 15 deadline. “We’ve got serious negotiations going on,” Shelby said. Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: All three service secretaries are scheduled to appear together at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at 10 this morning to discuss the Pentagon’s upcoming FY 2020 budget submission. When the event was scheduled it seemed the budget proposal would be out by now. But the 35-day partial government shutdown has delayed the release until next month. That will limit somewhat what the civilian political appointees can say. Though Army Secretary Mark Esper, Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, and Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson may drop hints that will tell us if the topline of $750 billion is something that’s a realistic possibility. NDAA 2020: The Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense has released 57 NDAA recommendations for 2020, and defense budget analyst Fred Bartels says the stakes couldn’t be higher for President Trump. “This will be the most important NDAA of President Trump’s term. It will determine if the administration can continue rebuilding the military and start implementing the National Defense Strategy.” Here’s are Bartel’s top four suggestions, referencing Pentagon budget proposals by then-Defense Secretary James Mattis: Topline: “The defense topline for 2020 should be at least $742 billion, which would represent a 3.6-percent increase from the 2019 final topline and align with the recommendations of three to five-percent growth from former Sec. Mattis, Gen. Dunford, and the National Defense Strategy Commission.” End-Strength: The military should grow by 17,00 active members — 5,000 in the Army, 5,000 in the Navy, 3,000 in the Marine Corps and 4,000 in the Air Force. Space Force: Congress should create an independent Space Force that includes all service and national security space assets and capabilities. More Ships: The Navy should increase the fleet size and acquire 11 new ships in FY 2020. The current 287 ships are significantly below the Navy’s revised fleet requirement of 355 ships, as well as Heritage defense analysts’ 400-ship, two-MRC recommendation. BIPARTISAN MOVE TO BLOCK TRANSGENDER BAN: The Pentagon has yet to implement President Trump’s ban on military service by transgender troops, despite a Supreme Court decision that appeared to clear the way for the ban to take effect temporarily while four challenges make their way through the courts. The Pentagon says an injunction in Maryland remains in effect. Meanwhile, a bipartisan effort in Congress will attempt to codify the Obama-era policy that allows all transgender individuals to serve so long as they meet all other qualifications. Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand D-N.Y., Susan Collins R-Maine, and Jack Reed D-R.I. introduced a bill yesterday to protect currently serving transgender service members and continue to allow new transgender service members to join the military. Companion legislation has been introduced in the House by Reps. Jackie Speier, D-Calif., Joseph Kennedy D-Mass, John Katko R-N.Y., Susan Davis D-Calif., and Anthony Brown D-Md. “President Trump’s ban on transgender service members is discrimination, it undermines our military readiness, and it is an insult to the brave and patriotic transgender Americans who choose to serve in our military,” said Gillibrand, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Personnel. “I urge my colleagues in Congress to fight with me to overturn the President’s cruel and unnecessary ban, respect the transgender troops who are willing to die for our country, and pass this bipartisan bill now.” Two recent polls, by Quinnipiac and Dalia Research, found that 70 percent of respondents favor allowing transgender Americans to serve in the military, and in her statement, Gillibrand notes The Chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Force and the Commandant of the Marine Corps all testified that open transgender service has had no negative effect on unit cohesion, discipline, or morale. BODY CAMS FOR BORDER AGENTS: House Democrats are renewing a push to require the country’s 80,000 federal immigration and border employees to wear body cameras while on the job. Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., on Wednesday reintroduced a 2017 bill that would mandate the 60,000 employees of U.S. Customs and Border Protection and 20,000 within U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to record their interactions with people. FOR POLICY WONKS: The National Security Institute has published is out with a new policy paper titled, The World That Awaits: Foreign Policy Issues Confronting the 116th Congress. Its billed as a “foreign policy primer to introduce the immediate challenges making headlines today and to help anticipate the issues that Congress will need to consider in the coming year. It broke down into five regions, The Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. SOMALIA STRATEGY — DETER, NOT DEFEAT: The shadowy U.S. air war against al-Shabaab militants in Somalia has set back the terrorist group but will not alone defeat them, the American general who heads the U.S. Africa Command told Congress yesterday. In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, outgoing AFRICOM Commander Marine Gen. Thomas Waldhauser said the goal of the strikes is to support the fledgling government of Somalia gain control of its country. “At the end of the day these strikes are not going to defeat al Shabaab, but they are going to provide the opportunity for the Federal Government and the Somali National Army to grow and assume the security of that country,” Waldhauser said. Since April 2017, the U.S. has conducted a methodical campaign of attrition, picking off groups of the al-Shabaab fighters with drone strikes whenever they present a target of opportunity. Last year the U.S. Africa Command assessed that it killed 323 al-Shabaab members in almost 50 airstrikes. Just five weeks into this year, AFRICOM says 129 militants have been killed in more than dozen strikes. The latest strike was two days ago and is believed to have killed 11 militants. WE DIDN’T START THE ARMS RACE: “We’re not trying to get Russia in an arms race,” said Andrea Thompson, undersecretary of state for arms control in an interview on PBS last night about the U.S. withdrawal from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. “You know, it’s not an arms race. It’s upholding what’s right for arms control regimes.” “As I tell folks, we have remained in compliance with the INF Treaty and all of our other arms control treaties, where Russia has violated that,” Thompson told PBS’s Nick Schifrin. “So, when folks point to an arms race, my counterpoint is that Russia started an arms race. And it started eight years ago when it violated the INF Treaty.” Thompson said the U.S. will proceed with research and development to come up with its own land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range up to 3,100 miles but stopped short of saying the U.S. will deploy the systems. That’s not in the plan,” she told Schifrin. “But what I can tell you when we develop next steps, it will be in consultation with partners and allies,” while noting that Russia’s SSC-8 missiles are already operational. “The system I already there,” Thompson said. “This isn’t a system that’s in the lab. This isn’t a prototype. Russia has fielded multiple battalions, manned and equipped, they can range our partners and allies and Americans abroad now.” THE RUNDOWN The Guardian: Isis leader believed to have fled coup attempt by his own fighters Military Times: Like Trump, troops say we should watch Iran — but maybe not by increasing our forces in Iraq Bloomberg: Lockheed Gets Boost When Pentagon Labels Late F-35s as ‘On-Time’ Reuters: Russia Demands U.S. Destroy Missile Defense Systems In Romania, Strike Drones The Hill: Russia Says It Would Be Open To New Nuclear Pact With U.S. Reuters: Iran Reveals Missile, Shows Off Underground Factory CNN.com: Top U.S. General Warns Russia Using Mercenaries To Access Africa’s Natural Resources Defense News: For First Time, Pentagon Budget Will Contain Reform Investments New York Times: Army Issues New Reprimand to Leader of Green Beret Team Ambushed in Niger Navy Times: Admiral: LCS Will Hunt Drug Smugglers Business Insider: Aircraft Carriers ‘Are The Most Survivable Airfield’ And They May Soon Be Even Harder To Kill, Top Navy Admiral Says Stars and Stripes: Air Force needs to do more to keep experienced maintainers, report says Breaking Defense: Army R&D Chief: ‘I Don’t Think We Went Far Enough’ – But Futures Command Can Virginian Pilot: Defense Department Could Start Funding Off-Base Infrastructure Fixes For Sea Level Rise, Flooding Breaking Defense: France To US: You’re Really Important To Our New Fighter Defense News: Commentary: Why The U.S. Must Accelerate All Elements Of Space-Based Nuclear Deterrence Air Force Times: Air Force general calls himself out for wearing upside-down ribbon rack during State of the Union |
CalendarFRIDAY | FEBRUARY 8 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosts a “Discussion with the Secretaries of the U.S. Military Departments, with Army Secretary Mark Esper, Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, and Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. www.csis.org 2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad on the Prospects for Peace in Afghanistan. www.usip.org Live stream here. MONDAY | FEBRUARY 11 3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Is Bigger Better? Concentration, Competition, and Defense Contracting Outcomes.” www.csis.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 12 8 a.m. 1st St. N.E. Capitol Hill Visitors Center SVC 201-00 Defense Writers Groups breakfast, featuring Sen. James Inhofe, chairman, Armed Services Committee https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ 8:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Seventh Annual U.S.-Mexico Security Conference: New Government, Old Challenges in Mexico’s Security Landscape.” www.wilsoncenter.org 8:45 a.m. 529 14th St. N.W. “Course Correction: Toward an Effective and Sustainable China Policy.” www.press.org 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Iran’s Revolution Turns Forty.” www.atlanticcouncil.org 9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “A conversation on defense policy with Rep. Seth Moulton.” www.brookings.edu 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hearing: Outside Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Posture. Witnesses: Ellen Tauscher, former under secretary of state for arms control and international security; Bruce Blair, Princeton University; Frank Miller, The Scowcroft Group .https://armedservices.house.gov/ 10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: Venezuela at a Crossroads. foreignaffairs.house.gov 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia. www.heritage.org 11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W., Suite 400. “Autonomy, Technology, and National Security: The Case for Reforming the Missile Technology Control Regime.” www.hudson.org 2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hearing: Military Service Academies’ Action Plans to Address the Results of Sexual Assault and Violence Report at the Military Service Academies. https://armedservices.house.gov/ 6 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The European Strategic Landscape after the INF Treaty.” www.sais-jhu.edu WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 13 10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Book Launch: ‘Fighting for Peace in Somalia.’ www.wilsoncenter.org 12 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “From War to Peace in the Balkans, the Middle East and Ukraine.” www.sais-jhu.edu 2:30 p.m. Dirksen G50. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: Current Condition of the Military Housing Privatization Initiative. www.armed-services.senate.gov THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 14 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. “Building an Effective Approach to Terrorism Prevention.” www.heritage.org FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 15 12 p.m. Rayburn 2075. “Dealing with North and South Korea: Can Washington Square the Circle?” www.cato.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 19 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. A conversation with General David L. Goldfein, chief of staff of the Air Force. www.brookings.edu WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 20 12:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “The ‘New Cold War’ Metaphor Makes No Sense.” www.sais-jhu.edu THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 21 8:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. “Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defense Roundtable Breakfast.” www.ndia.org 11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Gullible Superpower: U.S. Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements.” www.cato.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 26 7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Breakfast with Ryan McCarthy, Under Secretary of the U.S. Army. www.ausa.org WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 27 11 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Drive. Expeditionary Warfare Division Annual Meeting. www.ndia.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 28 8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2020 Budget and Policy Forum.” www.csis.org SUNDAY | MARCH 3 10:30 a.m. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. jnf.org/vabreakfast |
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