WHERE ARE THE STINGERS? As any student of history knows (or anyone who’s seen the movie Charlie Wilson’s War), U.S. Stinger shoulder-fired missiles supplied to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan by the CIA were the weapons that turned the tide of battle against the Soviets in the 1980s.
Russia’s 21st-century military is far more formidable, with highly-trained forces equipped with an array of high-tech weapons. And while experts say it’s clear Russian forces would initially prevail in an all-out invasion, the right weaponry in the hands of Ukrainian forces — such as anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles — could make the cost of victory unbearably high.
“We’re not sending all the equipment Ukraine is asking for in a reasonable way,” said John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, on CNN this week. “We’re not sending missiles that can take down Russian planes. If Russia knows they’re going to face serious casualties, if they know they’re going to face serious sanctions, I think there’s over a 50% chance Putin will only threaten and not actually invade.”
JAVELINS ARE NOT ENOUGH: While the Pentagon is happy to talk about the dollar values of the munitions and other military materiel it is sending to Ukraine by the planeload, other than Javelin tank-killer missiles, it won’t say what other lethal capabilities it’s providing.
“President Zelensky has said that he’s grateful for military aid, but he’s not getting what they really asked for, which is air defense systems, anti-aircraft missiles — the kind of things that could take on the Russian Air Force, not just tanks,” said Fox Pentagon correspondent Jennifer Griffin at yesterday’s briefing. “Why is the Pentagon refusing to send that kind of weaponry to Ukraine when it’s such a crucial time right now as they prepare to defend themselves?”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby replied that the U.S. has been in close consultation with Ukraine about “those very kinds of capability concerns,” but that he would provide details about what more might be sent in the coming days.
“I think you can understand why we would want to be careful about advertising publicly the kinds of capabilities that were given to Ukraine,” Kirby said.
UKRAINE THINKS RUSSIA UNLIKELY TO INVADE ‘FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS’
KYIV IS IN ‘EXTRAORDINARY DANGER’: There is some dispute about just how blunt President Joe Biden was in his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, with a Ukrainian official telling CNN that the capital Kyiv is in danger of being “sacked” and that Russia is almost certain to invade in mid-February when the frozen ground can support its heavy tanks.
But whether or not Biden used the word “sacked,” Kyiv is in “extraordinary danger,” according to Seth Jones, co-author of a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies on the massive Russian military buildup surrounding Ukraine.
“The situation looks pretty dark,” Jones said in an appearance on CNN. “The reality is that [Vladimir Putin] is building a force on three sides of the Ukrainian border, so if he goes, he has the ability to move relatively quickly.”
“On the Ukrainian Russian border, in Yelnya, we are seeing a 45% increase in one of the compounds there, of large numbers of main battle tanks, of surface-to-air missiles, ballistic missile systems, howitzers,” Jones said. “We’re seeing SU-34 attack aircraft preparing for and conducting flying missions.”
The detailed CSIS report, replete with satellite imagery, shows just how substantial the Russian forces are in Yelnya, including “critical parts of an invasion force,” such as main battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers, towed artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, surface-to-air missile systems, short-range ballistic missiles, and support vehicles.
On the border with Belarus, there’s a similar massing of forces pointed like a dagger at the heart of the Ukrainian capital. “Kyiv is in extraordinary danger both coming from the north and then flanking maneuvers both from the west and the east,” Jones said.
WHITE HOUSE DENIES BIDEN TOLD UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT KYIV IMMINENTLY IN DANGER OF BEING ‘SACKED’
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HAPPENING TODAY: Word is that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley will brief reporters at the Pentagon this afternoon, but as of early this morning, nothing has been announced. Check the Pentagon’s Today in DOD site for updates.
Austin has not appeared in the briefing room since his Nov. 17 news conference.
ALSO TODAY: The Atlantic Council hosts NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for a virtual discussion on “NATO’s response to the renewed tensions in Europe.” You can register here.
DOING MORE TO PROTECT CIVILIANS: After a series of botched drone strikes in which civilians have been killed, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered new procedures to elevate the protection of innocents in warfare.
“The action plan will adopt a comprehensive approach, reinforcing that DOD’s efforts to protect civilians are the responsibility of all leaders throughout the Department, always, and not only that of commanders and personnel in the field in the execution of missions assigned,” said a Pentagon statement.
“I am encouraged by Secretary Austin’s personal involvement in these issues and the priority he has placed on them for the Department. I also commend the rigorous and incisive research that was undertaken to deliver this report,” said Senate Armed Services Chairman Jack Reed in a statement.
“While some progress has been made on the Department’s response to allegations of civilian harm, it is clear that more must be done. Next steps include institutionalizing lessons learned and addressing factors that contribute to civilian casualty incidents such as information sharing challenges and confirmation bias,” Reed said.
WHY NO ONE WAS PUNISHED FOR FATALLY FLAWED US AIRSTRIKE THAT MISTAKENLY TARGETED AN INNOCENT MAN
GERMAN CHANCELLOR COMING: Amid sometimes fractious relations over the fate of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the White House has announced it’s invited Germany’s new Chancellor Olaf Scholz to visit on Feb. 7, a week from Monday.
“The leaders will discuss their shared commitment to both ongoing diplomacy and joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine,” the White House said in a statement.
“I want to be very clear about this. If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said on CNN yesterday.
So far, Scholz has not been so definitive, saying only that “it is clear that there will be a high price to pay” if Russia invades Ukraine.
Germany gets 40% of its liquified natural gas from Russia, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea, would bypass Ukraine and facilitate increased sales to Germany and the rest of Europe.
NORD STREAM 2 WILL ‘NOT MOVE FORWARD’ IF RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE: STATE DEPARTMENT
IF THEY GO, HERE’S WHERE THEY’LL COME FROM: The Pentagon has put 8,500 troops on short-notice “prepare to deploy” orders, in the event NATO activates its 40,000-strong Response Force.
Here’s where the Pentagon says elements of the force will come from:
- 82nd Airborne Division and 18th Airborne Corps, Fort Bragg, North Carolina
- 101st Airborne Division, Fort Campbell, Kentucky
- Fourth Infantry Division, Fort Carson, Colorado
- Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona
- Fort Hood, Texas
- Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington
- Fort Polk, Louisiana
- Robins Air Force Base, Georgia
- Fort Stewart, Georgia
- Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: As window closes on reviving Iran deal, door opens on military options
Washington Examiner: White House denies Biden told Ukraine’s president Kyiv imminently in danger of being ‘sacked’
Washington Examiner: Ukraine thinks Russia unlikely to invade ‘for the next two weeks’
Washington Examiner: Nord Stream 2 will ‘not move forward’ if Russia invades Ukraine: State Department
Washington Examiner: China tells Antony Blinken to yield to Russia in Ukraine crisis
Washington Examiner: Analysis: Ukraine ‘no-fly’ zone? Think again
Washington Examiner: US offers Putin chance to salvage reputation from ‘legacy of war’
Washington Examiner: Defense Secretary Austin orders changes to cut civilian deaths
Washington Examiner: Military members discharged over coronavirus vaccine mandate top 500
Washington Examiner: Alaska governor joins lawsuit against COVID-19 vaccine mandate for National Guard
Washington Examiner: ISIS attack on Syrian prison raises fears about terrorist group’s power
Washington Examiner: Afghanistan watchdog details how to prevent humanitarian aid from being misused
Washington Post: White House Walks Tightrope On Deployments In Response To Ukraine Crisis
The Drive: Six Russian Landing Ships That Left The Baltic Sea Have Entered The Mediterranean
Defense One: Blame Houthis, Not Saudis, For Lingering Yemen War, White House Says
Stars and Stripes: Pentagon Freezes Vaccine Mandate For Its Civilian Workers After Judge Halts Biden Policy
Military.com: Marines Make It Easier For Those Kicked Out Over Vaccines To Come Back
Marine Corps Times: Another Marine Receives A Religious Exemption To The COVID-19 Vaccine
Air Force Magazine: F-15Es Deploy to Estonia to Aid NATO Air Policing Amid Russian Tensions
Task & Purpose: The World’s Most Advanced Fighter Jet Is Already Having A Very Rough Year
Air Force Magazine: As Air Force Considers E-7A Buy, It Gets a Sneak Peek at Red Flag
Task & Purpose: We finally know the backstory of how Defense Secretary Austin got the Silver Star
The Hill: Formidable Legal Bar Shields Military From PFAS Lawsuits
19fortyfive.com: NATO’s Nightmare: How Fast Could Russia Take Kyiv (Ukraine’s Capital)?
19fortyfive.com: Why Germany Won’t Send Military Arms to Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Russia Has Big Plans to Upgrade Its Nuclear Missile Forces
Calendar
FRIDAY | JANUARY 28
8:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on “NATO’s response to the renewed tensions in Europe.” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-jens-stoltenberg
8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Prioritizing Partnerships with Africa,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Robert Scott; and Japanese Foreign Ministry African Department Director-General Koji Yonetani https://www.csis.org/events/prioritizing-partnerships-africa
10 a.m. — McCain Institute virtual event: “What is the Future of the NATO Alliance with a More Aggressive Russia?” with Jüri Luik, the permanent representative of Estonia to NATO; Evelyn Farkas, president, Farkas Global Strategies; Edward Lucas, nonresident senior fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis; and David Kramer; managing director for global policy, George W. Bush Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/what-is-the-future-of-the-nato-alliance
11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion with Deputy Homeland Security Secretary John Tien on current homeland security threats and challenges https://www.cnas.org/events/cnas-virtual-event
1 p.m. — Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion: “U.S. National Security” with former national security advisers Condoleezza Rice, Thomas Donilon and Robert O’Brien. Livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch
MONDAY | JANUARY 31
11 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual event: “Responsible AI from principles to practice,” with Jared Dunnmon, technical director, artificial intelligence/machine learning, DOD Defense Innovation Unit; Michael Gibson, deputy head, Defense AI and Autonomy Unit, U.K. Ministry of Defense; Heather Roff, senior research scientist, Center for Naval Analysis; Michael Street, head of innovation and data science, NCI Agency, NATO; and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events/responsible-ai-from-principles-to-practice
4 p.m. — CSIS International Security Program virtual event: “The Future of the French Navy,” with Adm. Pierre Vandier, chief of the French Navy; and Seth Jones, CSIS senior vice president and director of the International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/future-french-navy
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
9 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group virtual conversation with Gen. Edward Daly, commander, Army Materiel Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 2
10 a.m. CVC-200 Capitol Visitor Center — Senate Armed Services committee closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 3
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book launch: Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, with author Amy Zegart, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-spies-lies-and-algorithms
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We strive diligently to minimize the harm that armed conflict visits upon civilian populations, but we can and will improve upon our efforts to protect civilians. We will revisit the ways in which we assess incidents that may have resulted in civilian harm, acknowledge the harm to civilians that resulted from such incidents, and incorporate lessons learned into the planning and execution of future combat operations and into our tactics, techniques, and procedures.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in a memo ordering new procedures to protect civilians in war zones.
