Biden’s national security challenges mount as he enters second year in office

U.S. and Russian officials are scheduled to meet in Geneva on Monday to discuss the Ukraine crisis, with Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman leading the U.S. delegation and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov heading up the Russian team.

WHAT BIDEN TOLD PUTIN: The Geneva session is just the first of several meetings set for next week aimed at finding a diplomatic off-ramp to the showdown, including talks between Russia and NATO and a broader meeting including Moscow, Washington, and other European countries set for Jan. 13.

The flurry of diplomacy follows last week’s 50-minute phone call between Biden and Putin, which came at the Russian president’s request. “I made it clear to President Putin that if he makes any more moves and goes into Ukraine, we will have severe sanctions,” Biden told reporters on New Year’s Eve. “We will increase our presence in Europe with our NATO allies, and it will have to be a heavy price to pay for it.”

“He laid out some of his concerns about NATO and the United States and Europe, and we laid out ours. And we said we’d begin to negotiate some of those issues,” Biden said. “But I made it clear that they only could work if, in fact, he deescalated, not escalated, the situation there.”

“Our focus is really on actions and on indicators, not on words, at this point,” said a senior administration official after the call. “We’re going to continue to monitor very closely the movement and buildup of Russian forces on the Ukraine border and prepare ourselves for whatever decision ultimately is made by the Russian president.”

BIDEN TELLS PUTIN US ‘WILL RESPOND DECISIVELY’ IF RUSSIA FURTHER INVADES UKRAINE

WHAT PUTIN IS SAYING: Putin laid out his potion in a marathon four-hour end-of-the-year news conference in Moscow, in which he argued that his concern is for the security of Russia.

“We have made it clear that any further movement of NATO to the East is unacceptable,” Putin said Dec. 23.

A week before Christmas, Russia released a draft treaty, which included a list of demands that no former Soviet state be admitted to NATO and that the U.S. establish no bases or deploy troops or weapons to any former state that is not already a NATO member.

“Is there anything unclear about this? Are we deploying missiles near the U.S. border?” Putin said. “No, we are not. It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep. Is it going too far to demand that no strike systems be placed near our home?”

RUSSIA ‘NOT BLUFFING’ ON NATO ROLLBACK, WARNS OF ‘LARGE-SCALE CONFLICT IN EUROPE’

WHAT BIDEN TOLD UKRAINE: Biden spoke by phone Sunday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and stressed he would make no concessions to Moscow without buy-in from Ukraine.

“President Biden underscored the commitment of the United States and its allies and partners to the principle of ‘nothing about you without you,’” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki in a statement. “He reaffirmed the United States’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also expressed support for confidence-building measures to de-escalate tensions in Donbas and active diplomacy to advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, in support of the Normandy Format.”

‘A MOMENT OF CRISIS’: “We are at a moment of crisis and have been for some weeks now, given the Russian buildup, and that it will take a high level of engagement to address this and to try to find a path of de-escalation,” said a senior U.S. official before Biden’s call with Putin last week.

“Our view is that we can make most progress actually at the negotiating table, sitting across from one another behind closed doors and in close consultation with our allies and partners.”

FIVE MAJOR ISSUES THE MILITARY WILL FACE IN 2022

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HAPPENING THIS WEEK: With the anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol just two days away, there are an array of events set for this examining the ignominious moment in U.S. history, including speeches by President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, a hearing by the Senate Rules Committee, and various think tank discussions. (See calendar below).

Former President Donald Trump is planning a 5 p.m. press conference on Thursday at Mar-a-Lago, where he is expected to decry the Democrat-controlled House committee investigating Jan. 6 as a political witch hunt.

“If what he has been saying since he left office is any indication, former President Trump is likely, again this week, to make the same false claims about the election that he knows to be false, and the same false claims about the election that he knows caused violence on Jan. 6,” said Vice Chairwoman Rep. Liz Cheney, one of only two Republicans on the committee. “He`s doing this press conference on the 6th. Again, if he makes those same claims, he’s doing it with complete understanding and knowledge of what those claims have caused in the past,” Cheney said on CBS Sunday.

MERRICK GARLAND TO DELIVER JUSTICE DEPARTMENT UPDATE ON CAPITOL RIOT INVESTIGATION

MILITARY COVID MANDATE THROWN INTO QUESTION: With COVID-19 infections spiking at 400,000 a day, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin among the latest cases, the Pentagon is scrambling to stay ahead of the surge.

Like most breakthrough cases among the vaccinated, Austin’s case is mild, and he’s working remotely from home. The Pentagon is reinstituting maximum telework and limiting in-person occupancy in the building to 40%, but conflicting court rulings have put its mandatory vaccine policy in question.

A week ago, a federal judge sided with the Pentagon in a lawsuit filed by Republican Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, ruling that the vaccine mandate for members of the Oklahoma National Guard is no different from the other mandatory vaccines required for troops.

“The vaccine mandate to which the Governor objects is the one — in addition to the nine that already apply to all service members — intended to protect service members from the virus which has, in less than two years, killed more Americans than have been killed in action in all of the wars the United States has ever fought,” wrote Judge Stephen Friot in his ruling. “The court is required to decide this case on the basis of federal law, not common sense. But, either way, the result would be the same. The claims asserted by the Governor and his co-plaintiffs are without merit.”

But yesterday, another federal judge in Texas ruled in favor of a lawsuit brought by the First Liberty Institute on behalf of a group of Navy SEALS who objected to the vaccine on religious grounds.

“The Navy servicemembers in this case seek to vindicate the very freedoms they have sacrificed so much to protect,” wrote Judge Reed O’Connor in his opinion. “The COVID-19 pandemic provides the government no license to abrogate those freedoms. There is no COVID-19 exception to the First Amendment. There is no military exclusion from our Constitution.”

The judge pointedly noted that while the Navy has a process for religious exemptions, it is — in his words — ”by all accounts … theater.”

“The Navy has not granted a religious exemption to any vaccine in recent memory. It merely rubber stamps each denial,” O’Connor wrote.

NO RELIGIOUS EXEMPTIONS TO COVID-19 VACCINE APPROVED AMONG ARMED FORCES DESPITE OVER 12,000 REQUESTS

AUSTIN TAKES CONTROL OF THE DC GUARD: Following complaints that the Pentagon was slow to deploy National Guard troops in response to the assault on the Capitol last year, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has designated himself as the sole authority for dispatching Guard troops in the city of Washington, D.C.

In the District of Columbia, which is not a state and therefore does not have a governor, the authority to call up the National Guard has rested with the secretary of the Army. A year ago, the Trump Pentagon was accused of delaying the deployment of National Guard reinforcements when Capitol Police were overrun by Trump supporters who believed the election had been stolen.

“We were trying to send the National Guard. And we kept requesting up and down the flagpole, from our adjutant general in the Maryland National Guard requesting the head of the National Guard to the secretary of the Army,” said Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan on CBS Sunday. “It took two-and-a-half hours before Ryan McCarthy, the secretary of the Army, called me and asked for our help.”

Under a memo issued Dec. 30, the secretary of defense is now the single approval authority for all requests that would involve D.C. National Guard personnel participating directly in civilian law enforcement activities or that require the deployment of guard troops within 48 hours after receipt of the request.

FY 2022 NDAA NOW LAW: Over the holiday break, President Joe Biden signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022, which authorizes $768.2 billion in defense spending for the Pentagon and the Department of Energy.

Perhaps the most contentious provision was reform of the military justice system, which was hailed as a historic first step in providing justice to victims of sexual assault and other serious crimes but was also seen as falling short of the comprehensive reform sought by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Rep. Jackie Speier.

“There is much more work to be done. Because commanders retain convening authority, they will still wield influence over the process by selecting court-members, approving or denying immunity requests, and the hiring of expert witnesses and consultants,” said retired Air Force Col. Don Christensen, a former prosecutor and president of the advocacy group Protect Our Defenders.

“These commanders can also stop any prosecution simply by allowing the accused to separate from the service rather than face a court-martial. As long as this is still the case, the military justice system cannot be considered truly independent.”

BIDEN SIGNS MAJOR DEFENSE SPENDING BILL INTO LAW

NEW MEMORIALS: Also signed into law were two bills to honor the sacrifices of those who protect our country, including authorization for the National Medal of Honor Museum Foundation to establish a commemorative work to honor Medal of Honor recipients and a memorial for veterans of the Global War on Terror is to be built on the National Mall.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Forbes: Opinion: Rebuilding Boeing: Why Washington Has A Role To Play

Washington Examiner: Five major issues the military will face in 2022

Washington Examiner: The seven biggest military stories of 2021

Washington Examiner: Oklahoma National Guard bars unvaccinated members from drills after court ruling

Washington Examiner: Errant drone strikes raise questions about safeguards to prevent civilian casualties

Washington Examiner: Airstrikes under Biden down 50% compared to previous year

Washington Examiner: Marine discharges over COVID-19 vaccine mandate continue to rise to 206

Washington Examiner: Pentagon inspector general to investigate Hawaii fuel storage crisis

Washington Examiner: No religious exemptions to COVID-19 vaccine approved among armed forces despite over 12,000 requests

Washington Examiner: US agrees to meet with Russia despite pledge not to exclude European allies from high-stakes talks

Washington Examiner: Iran expects Biden will cave in ‘presumably final round’ of nuclear talks

Washington Examiner: Merrick Garland to deliver Justice Department update on Capitol riot investigation

AP: China Denies U.S. Report It’s Rapidly Growing Its Nuclear Arms

Reuters: Russia, China, Britain, U.S. And France Say No One Can Win Nuclear War

Air Force Magazine: Revamping Homeland Defense

Washington Post: Along Afghanistan’s ‘highway of death,’ the bombs are gone but suffering has deepened

New York Times: Airstrikes allowed America to wage war with minimal risk to its troops.

New York Times: Hidden Pentagon records reveal patterns of failure in deadly airstrikes

AP: Hawaii Upholds Order Requiring Navy to Drain Fuel Tanks

San Diego Union-Tribune: In A Historic First, Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln Deploys Under Command Of Female Captain

Washington Post: Navy Ship Hit With Outbreak Returns To Sea With Coronavirus-Positive Sailors Isolated On Board

Talk Media News: Analysis: ‘Make them pay’ — Putin, Ukraine and the ticking clock

Marine Corps Times: New In 2022: Final Testing For Corps’ New King Stallion Helicopter

War on the Rocks: Gen. David H. Berger On The Marine Corps Of The Future

National Review: Opinion by Sen. Roger Wicker” How Biden Can Outfox Putin in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: 5 Places Where World War III Could Erupt in 2022

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Ukraine Joining NATO Could Spark War with Russia. There Is Another Way

Washington Post: Opinion: 3 retired generals: The military must prepare now for a 2024 insurrection

Calendar

TUESDAY | JANUARY 4

1 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with U.S. Capitol Police Sgt. Aquilino Gonell and former D.C. Homeland Security and Intelligence Chief Donell Harvin on “Jan. 6: One Year Later” examining “how the events at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2020 played out in front of them and the impact it has had on their lives.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

2:30 p.m. HVC-201/A&B, U.S. Capitol — U.S. Capitol Police Board news conference to discuss “the improvements made to secure the U.S. Capitol and protect our democratic process,” with House Sergeant at Arms William Walker, Capitol Police Board chair; Senate Sergeant at Arms Karen Gibson; Architect of the Capitol Brett Blanton; and U.S. Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 5

10 a.m. 301 Russell — Senate Rules and Administration Committee hearing on “Oversight of the U.S. Capitol Police Following the Jan. 6th Attack on the Capitol, Part III,” with testimony from Thomas Manger, chief of the U.S. Capitol Police. http://rules.senate.gov

11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., on the events of Jan. 6, 2021 and the work of the House Select Committee to Investigate the attack on the U.S. Capitol. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

12 p.m. — Center for the National Interest virtual discussion: “Where is the Confrontation Over Ukraine Heading?” with Mathew Burrows, Atlantic Council: Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; retired Col. Douglas Macgregor, former adviser to the secretary of defense; Cynthia Roberts, Hunter College: and George Beebe, vice president and director of studies at the Center for the National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Running on fumes? The fight to fix Ukraine’s energy sector,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum; Olga Bielkova, director of government and international affairs at the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine; and Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/running-on-fumes

2 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Next National Defense Strategy and the Imperative of Closer Cooperation with Allies,” with former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff retired Gen. James Cartwright, former Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen Lord, and former CIA Director and Commander of Central Command retired Gen. David Petraeus. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-next-national-defense-strategy

THURSDAY | JANUARY 6

10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “The January 6 Insurrection: One Year Later,” with Quinta Jurecic, senior editor at Lawfare; Roger Parloff, senior editor at Lawfare; Seamus Hughes, deputy director of George Washington University’s Program on Extremism; Katie Benner, Justice Department reporter at the New York Times; and Benjamin Wittes, editor-in chief of Lawfare https://www.brookings.edu/events

11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What is Russia’s endgame in Ukraine,” with retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander Europe; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; former Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Danyliuk; former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia Evelyn Farkas; and Melinda Haring, deputy director and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-is-russias-endgame

11 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “The Future of Maritime Security in the Gulf and the Red Sea,” with Cinzia Bianco, research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Saskia M. van Genugten, research fellow at the Netherlands Defense Academy; retired Navy Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, senior fellow on national security at MEI; Mirette Mabrouk, senior fellow at MEI; and Bilal Saab, director of the MEI Defense and Security Program https://www.mei.edu/events/future-maritime-security-gulf-and-red-sea

8 p.m. Statuary Hall, U.S. Capitol — CNN discussion: “Live from the Capitol: January 6th, One Year Later,” with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.; House Homeland Security Chairman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss.; Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, D-Del.; Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo.; Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-Texas; Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.; Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich.; Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa.; Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md.; Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo.; U.S. Capitol Police Officer Pfc. Harry Dunn; U.S. Capitol Police Sgt. Aquilino Gonell; and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers Michael Fanone and Daniel Hodges Livestream at https://go.cnn.com/

FRIDAY | JANUARY 7   

11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi on “the escalating needs of refugees in Afghanistan. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 12

8:30 a.m. CET/ 2 a.m. EST — NATO’s Military Committee, its highest military authority, meets for two days in Brussels, Belgium, with opening remarks by Adm. Rob Bauer, of the Royal Netherlands Navy, chair of the Military Committee. The meeting includes all the military chefs from the 30 NATO nations, as well as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Gen. Tod Wolters. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_190402.htm

THURSDAY | JANUARY 13

5:30 p.m. — National Security Institute NatSec Nightcap event: “Maintaining U.S. Global Leadership and Confronting Tomorrow’s Threats,” with former U.S. Central Commander retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel and Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director, National Security Institute https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap