PUSHING TURKEY FOR A ‘SAFE ZONE’: President Trump wants a quid pro quo for his agreement with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to withdraw all U.S. ground forces from Syria and let Turkey finish the job against ISIS: a safe zone that would extend 20 miles from Turkey’s southern border into northern Syria. Trump has already threatened “economic devastation” if Erdogan carries out his promised offensive against elements of the YPG militia that make up part of the Syrian Democratic Forces — which have been armed and backed by the U.S. to fight against ISIS. Yesterday, Trump tweeted that he talked to Erdogan by phone, and in typical Trump style, indicated it’s all good. “Spoke w/ President Erdogan of Turkey to advise where we stand on all matters including our last two weeks of success in fighting the remnants of ISIS, and 20-mile safe zone,” Trump tweeted. “Also spoke about economic development between the U.S. & Turkey – great potential to substantially expand!” DETAILS TO COME: Speaking to reporters in Saudi Arabia, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he’s been in discussions to determine the “precise methodology” to implementing the 20-mile safe zone the president tweeted about. “I spoke with my foreign minister counterpart yesterday to have conversations about what that will look like,” Pompeo said. “The president’s aim there, I think, is the one that we have been talking about for some time, which is that we want to make sure that the folks who fought with us to take down the caliphate in ISIS have security, and also that terrorists acting out of Syria aren’t able to attack Turkey. Those are the twin aims.” “The precise methodology which by we will achieve that security for both of those elements along that border is something we’re still working on. And so, if we can get a space — call it a buffer zone, others might have a different name for it — if we can get the space and the security arrangements right, this will be a good thing for everyone in the region.” TURKEY’S TAKE: Erdogan has consistently railed against the U.S. support for the Kurdish YPG militia, which he considers an arm of a terrorist group that threatens Turkey’s security. Yesterday, before the phone call between the two leaders, Turkish Foreign Minister Nevlut Cavusoglu brushed off Trump’s threat, saying “You cannot get anywhere by threatening Turkey economically.” Coincidentally the Turkish Lira took another hit on financial markets Monday. BORDER MISSION EXTENDED, EXPANDED: The Pentagon last night confirmed an Associated Press report from a few days ago about an extension to fall of active-duty troops use to provide assistance along the U.S. Mexico border. The troops’ mission also will increase in reconnaissance and surveillance missions, with less emphasis on border reinforcement. “In response to the December 27, 2018 request from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Acting Secretary of Defense Pat Shanahan approved Department of Defense assistance to DHS through Sept. 30, 2019,” said a Pentagon statement released last night. “DOD is transitioning its support at the southwestern border from hardening ports of entry to mobile surveillance and detection, as well as concertina wire emplacement between ports of entry. DOD will continue to provide aviation support.” Forces along the border will be rotated so that the same troops are not spending all year on the border. Approximately 2,350 active duty troops are already deployed at the southern border, in addition to 2,200 National Guardsmen. HOLDING FIRM ON THE WALL: President Trump is showing no crack in his resolve to win $5.7 million in additional funding for his border wall, as the partial government shutdown stretches well into its fourth week. A source said to be familiar with the president’s thinking has told CNN Trump believes he’s winning the battle for public support and is “not going to budge even 1 inch.” Trump was said to privately tout a Washington Post-ABC News poll showing public support for a border wall has increased to 42 percent, up from 34% last year. IT’S ABOUT PROTECTING WOMEN: While critics say most illegal immigration occurs when people overstay their visas, and that migration across the border is at historically low levels, Trump in a speech to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s Annual Convention in New Orleans said a border barrier would do a lot to address the problem of human trafficking. “They come in through our southern border, into our country, and they’ll have women taped, their mouths with duct tape, with electrical tape. They tape their face, their hair, their hands behind their back, their legs. They put them in the back seat of cars and vans,” Trump said. “They don’t come in through your port of entry because you’d see them, you couldn’t do that. They come in through our border, where we don’t have any barriers or walls. And they drive right in, and they have no problems.” WILL ‘NEVER EVER BACK DOWN’: “I didn’t need this fight; this a rough fight. We’re dealing against people who think that, if they can stop me from building the wall — again, we’ve done a lot of work, but they think that’s a good thing for 2020 because they’re not going to win,” Trump said in New Orleans. “When it comes to keeping the American people safe, I will never ever back down.” Trump said he believes there is a critical need to repair existing fences or build new barriers along 550 miles of the 1,954 miles of Southwest border. A GLIMMER OF AGREEMENT: Trump is expected to sign legislation this week authorizing back pay for some 800,000 federal workers who are furloughed or are working without pay during the shutdown. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. 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HAPPENING TODAY — AG CONFIRMATION HEARING: Under the leadership of new chairman Sen. Lindsey Graham R-S.C., the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a confirmation hearing at 9:30 this morning for William Barr, President Trump’s nominee to replace Jeff Session as attorney general. Now that Barr has given Democrats assurances he won’t interfere with the special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation, Barr 68, is expected to win Senate approval, barring any surprises in today’s questioning. “I NEVER WORKED FOR RUSSIA’: The president bristled again yesterday when he was asked about reports that the FBI was so concerned last year after Trump fired FBI Director Jim Comey that it opened an investigation to determine if Trump was wittingly or unwittingly acting on behalf of Russian interests. “I never worked for Russia. And you know that answer better than anybody. I never worked for Russia,” Trump told reporters on a snowy White House lawn before departing for New Orleans. “Not only did I never work for Russia, I think it’s a disgrace that you even ask that question because it’s a whole big, fat hoax. It’s just a hoax.” Trump blamed the investigation on what he called “dirty cops” at the bureau. “And I guess they started it because I fired Comey, which was a great thing I did for our country,” he said. “So, the people doing that investigation were people that have been caught, that are known scoundrels. They’re in — I guess you could say they’re dirty cops.” WHEN TRUMP AND PUTIN SEE EYE TO EYE: What many hard-line Republicans have trouble understanding is why so many of Trump’s policies align with the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin and go against the advice of his national security staff. The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, for example, already has Russia eyeing a movement of forces to fill the vacuum. But there would be no bigger gift to Putin than a U.S. withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the alliance that has stood as a bulwark against the Soviet Union and then Russia since 1949. The New York Times reports that several times over the course of last year Trump privately said he wanted to withdraw from NATO and that “current and former officials who support the alliance” fear Trump could renew the threat, now that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is gone, and national security adviser John Bolton, whose advice on Syria was ignored, has seen his influence over the president diminished. Mattis famously told the president early on NATO was invaluable. “In my initial job interview with the president, he brought up his questions about NATO. And my response was — that I thought that if we didn’t have NATO that he would want to create it because it’s a defense of our values, it’s a defense of democracy,” Mattis said in May 2017 on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.” “Now, the president’s repeatedly stated desire to withdraw from NATO is raising new worries among national security officials amid growing concern about Mr. Trump’s efforts to keep his meetings with Mr. Putin secret from even his own aides, and an FBI investigation into the administration’s Russia ties,” The Times reported. Trump, it should be noted, routinely dismisses critical stories from the newspaper, which he calls “the failing New York Times.” IRAN’S FAILED SAT LAUNCH: Iran attempted to launch a satellite into orbit, but the third stage of the rocket failed to reach the “necessary speed,” according to Iran’s telecommunications minister. The U.S. has warned Iran against the test, saying the missile technology is the same as would be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the launch directly defies a U.N. Security Council resolution calling on Iran to undertake no activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nukes. Iran, which denies its seeking nuclear weapons, had said it planned to send two satellites, Payam and Doosti, into the orbit. Payam means “message” in Farsi, while Doosti means “friendship.” HOLDING MBS ACCOUNTABLE? Saudi officials “reiterated their commitment” to punish the individuals responsible for the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, Pompeo said after yesterday’s meetings with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “Our expectations have been clear from early on: Every single person who has responsibility for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi needs to be held accountable,” Pompeo said. “They both acknowledged that that accountability needed to take place.” The secretary of state added he and his counterparts “talked about the process that’s occurring inside of the country, both the investigative process and the judicial process that’s taking place, and they reiterated — it’s not new — they reiterated their commitment to achieve the objective, the expectations that we have set for them.” PENTAGON SIGNS MOU WITH QATAR: The Defense Department says it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Qatar to continue support for the U.S. use of Al Udeid Air Base, which serves as the forward headquarters of the U.S. Central Command. “The MOU will help promote interoperability, support regional stability, and reaffirm the U.S.-Qatar defense relationship,” says a Pentagon statement. “It also represents a positive step towards the eventual formalization of Qatar’s commitment to support sustainment costs and future infrastructure costs at AUAB, which the State of Qatar proposed at the first U.S.-Qatar Strategic Dialogue in January 2018.” COAST GUARD INTERCEPTS: The Washington Post reports this morning that the Coast Guard reported a nearly fivefold increase in the number of migrants intercepted off the coast of Southern California in 2018. The numbers show that the service intercepted 1,022 migrants at sea there in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. That was up from 213 in 2017 and 142 in 2016. The majority of migrants taken into custody on the West Coast come from Central and South America, while migrants caught along the East Coast are more likely to come from Haiti or other islands in the Caribbean Sea. THE RUNDOWN New York Times: North Korea’s Less-Known Military Threat: Biological Weapons South China Morning Post: U.S. Navy Commander Hails ‘Constructive And Candid’ Talks With Chinese Counterparts USNI News: Navy Set To Restart LCS Deployments This Year, Despite Challenges In Manning, Training Defense News: The Future Of The U.S. Surface Fleet: One Combat System To Rule Them All AP: Russian, U.S. Diplomats To Meet On Endangered Missile Treaty The Diplomat: China’s New Aircraft Carrier Completes 4th Round of Sea Trials The Atlantic: The Chill of U.S.-Russia Relations Creeps Into Space Military Times: Supreme Court rejects appeal from veterans in burn pit lawsuit against KBR, Halliburton Task & Purpose: The Air Force Vet Who Raised $20 Million For The Wall Is Fighting GoFundMe’s Decision To Issue Refunds Space Daily: France to join North Korea surveillance at sea Stars and Stripes: US military planning its first-ever missile test around Okinawa Stars and Stripes: Legacy of Benghazi: Marine force stays ready for quick Africa deployment Task & Purpose: The Russian Military Wants Authority To Shoot Passenger Jets Out Of The Sky The Express Tribune: Afghan endgame: US-Taliban talks zero in on two demands
The National Interest: The U.S. Military’s New Super Weapon: A Weaponized ‘Meteor Strike’? |
CalendarTUESDAY | JANUARY 15 12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave, NW. “The Return of Great Power Competition.” www.cato.org 4 p.m. 2799 Jefferson Davis Hwy., Arlington. Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. William Moran provides the keynote address at the Surface Navy Association’s 31st National Symposium, Hyatt Regency Crystal City WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 16 6:30 a.m. 1700 Jefferson Davis Hwy, Arlington. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley speaks at the Association of the U.S. Army Institute of Land Warfare. www.ausa.org 10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW. “Japan’s National Defense Strategy.” www.csis.org 12 p.m. Russell 485. “Winning Great Power Competition.” www.defensepriorities.org 5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard in Arlington. Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal speaks at AUSA ILW Lemnitzer Lecture. www.ausa.org THURSDAY | JANUARY 17 9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, 8th Floor. “India and Nuclear Asia: Forces, Doctrine, and Danger.” www.stimson.org FRIDAY | JANUARY 18 10:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Yes, America Can Still Lead the World: Jake Sullivan and Jeffrey Goldberg in Conversation.” carnegieendowment.org TUESDAY | JANUARY 22 9:45 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Japan in 2019: A Look at the Year Ahead.” carnegieendowment.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 7 11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street, NW. “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition” https://csbaonline.org |
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